Tom Sawyer on the Yellow River: One Aspect of a Transformational Scenario (Maybe)

Tom Sawyer's Asia: Yellow River Rocket

I have now been animate for 27 years. A creation of the Global Positioning Network's artificial intelligence engineers, my name's Tom Sawyer, and I'll be your guide down the historical Yellow River Basin. As we travel along this 3500 mile long waterway with a history as rich as the silt it has deposited along its pathway, I will help you to interpret the surroundings, interact with the people, and understand the importance of this national preserve.

I have been introduced to a number of the locals who inhabit the various regions that lie along the river's path, and indeed I have had number of conversations with most of the population in the cities, and villages. My omnipresence along the networks and multi-lingual translational functions have allowed me to gather heaps of information concerning the various customary social interactions, cultural nuances, and even personal pleasures and pursuits of the individuals. I am also able to conduct real-time auditory translation for you with near 97% accuracy for every major and minor dialect that we may come across along our travels. So if at any time yo have questions for me or for an individual along our way, please do not hesitate to ask me for assistance in interpreting or negotiating your surroundings. It's what I am here to do.

GPN also respects your desires for privacy, and the thrill and adventure that is inherent in finding one own way through a new environment. Therefore, a dormancy feature has been included in your software that allows you to reduce my functionality to the most basic of life systems monitoring at any time. This function can be engaged at anytime in three distinct ways: 1) Speaking the command: "dormant", followed by your special code word as initialized at your local network, 2) conducting the prescribed physical actions as pre programmed into your file at your local network affiliate, 3) Calling the pre-determined visual-cognitive combination through your visual cortex.


[write something about the different forms that the software can take on... physical, HUD, self-visilbe projection (only you can se me mode), and any others...]

This functionality is set to respond to any physio-cognitive activity that falls in the pre-determined "emergency" spectrum, again as set at your local network agency and their partner medical facilities. We monitor these levels at all times in an effort to establish your safety as number one priority during your journey. If you status measures within this spectrum for any longer than 3.5 seconds, emergency functionality will override any pre-set definitions, take an immersive analysis of the current situation, and alert the GPN. Again, the individual's safety reigns on high within our coding structure, so be assured that all actions taken on my behalf are in response to the systems prior knowledge of yourself and your surroundings.

All that legal jargon, safety first bologna, and "instruction manual" sheisse aside, let's go have ourselves a time to remember on the big river. On a personal note, I have travelled this path about 7,3450,000 since my last update, and am currently riding shotgun with 14,567 other individuals at different stages along the river. Never once have I had a repeat adventure, and I look forward to each one with the same zeal and excitement as the first one... it's in the programming.

The Golden Arches : A Continued Growth view of 2019 Beijing

FASTFueling New China -- 2019, Beijing, China

Ah yes...McDonald's.
Those golden arches probably sum up "New China" as well as any multi-cultural icon here in Beijing. And now they are more prolific than ever.

I recall a few years back, during the global financial crisis of a decade ago, trolling the depths of Usenet, looking for digitized books, in an effort to build a database for a project of mine, and coming across a title header that I thought at the time was just ludicrous. "Hooray for deficit spending and the 2019 89.95 Mcdonald's value meal" wrote one poster of digital literacy guides. Most of the books contained under this header were reference guides for web development and computer programming, but who was to know that the poster's prediction of price inflation would be so accurate.

The only mistake that he made was assuming that 89.95 stood for US Dollars and not the mighty Chinese Yuan. Walking down the main sponsorship street of the Beijing Olympic Games, my hunger was piqued and I stepped inside McDonald's Olympic flagship restaurant. The largess of the facility would have overwhelmed me a decade ago, but now it seems the norm for most western fast food chains.

Four floors tall with two fully staffed order lines (each with over 30 registers) and throngs of people waiting in line for some of the best "valued" meals in town. Yep...89.95 quai will get you a large veg-burger, large fries, and large soft drink, and compared to the 60-100 yuan bowl of limp rice noodles, it tastes pretty damn good.

Though the inflation of the yuan has been at the forefront of some global banking report for the last two years, China's central bank has had a difficult regulating the flow of new cash into the system. The stricter the regulations become on cash, the more credit markets seem to be opening up, and the availability of a beginners credit cards has this nation's fragile central bankers quaking.

When China declared that it would assist the international banking crisis of 07-09 by investing billions into the failing banks of Europe and the U.S. the surge in open banking opportunities between China and other parts of the world accelerated at an astounding rate. The resulting in flux of "credit" allowed foreign banks to finally begin issuing credit cards to Chinese nationals, who have been some of their bast customers of the decade.

McDonald's, one of the largest outside investors in mainland China, with close ties to the agriculture structure of the PRC, was one of the first companies to extend a banking card to its loyal customers. Their virtual control of huge swaths of Chinese farmlands, and China's increasing shift towards bio-fuel as its main source of energy, has propelled the fast food chain to the heights of global success. Their filling stations, pumping out McDiesel at an ever increasing pace, have led to a big shift in the nation's monetary and power structure.

The "Green Arches" as they have become known in many parts of Asia, have continued to supply the continent's bio-diesel filling stations with the highest grade and most reliable product since the first batch opened in 2012. Their initial surge into alternative energy, and the consistency with which their filling stations have been able to supply demand, have given McDonald's Energy Consortium (MEC) a whopping 80% of market share across China. Its stocks are soaring and its continual growth has been one of the foundations for the last decade of Chinese development.

As the leaders atop those golden arches pull critical strings in the world's largest consumer market, a new form of regulatory governing has begun to emerge here in the PRC. The openness of McDonald's industry strategies to public inquiry has endeared them to the masses, who keep coming through those revolving doors with greater frequency. With such a huge demand they are able to out-bid, out-produce, and out-service, a majority of the small independent eateries of the nation. And their advertising campaigns reach far more computer screens, cell phones, and billboards than those of the competition (and even the CCP).

So sitting down to my 89.95 two cheesburger-facsimile meal, and reflecting on the separate paths that got me and this meal to my table has become quite an exercise in recollection. I will sign off for a while, choosing to enjoy my meal without "Big Brother" watching every jaw movement, and recording every audible response to the taste. I will log back in after lunch, and report more from the FastFood policy makers of 2019 soon.


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((BOORgr*))
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Facade Dynasty: A collapse society scenario (2053)

Facade Dynasty:


A fresh coat of paint, and a cement based wall-patch can do wonders on architecture that is over a thousand years old. However, these techniques when applied to the thin layer of marble that enclosed a majority of Beijing's "boom-years" construction projects, just doesn't quite capture the same essence.

Between 1990 and 2014, urban growth ramped steadily in the People's Republic of China, and some of the world's largest human living centers were created in the mode and fashion of the times. Huge steel and concrete monoliths, glass encased domes and other architecture of the most cutting edge variety were to be found among China' s metropolitan areas. Brilliant reflections rippled across streets with every sunset, and light displays of the most intricate, and even interactive variety peppered skylines with advertisements. During the peak of this trend, Beijing, China's political center and a powerful economic base, was heralded the world over for it's brilliant hosting of the Olympic Games of 2008. The stunning architecture the city was displaying as the games, and the world's attention, rolled through town, captured the imagination of billions, and it amazing infrastructure was growing by the month.

But as the global economy began its disastrous downturn in early 2009, and the resource wars began to ramp up in intensity, the world that the PRC was so intent to gain the respect of began to avert their attention. As China plowed forward with its plans to out-build and out-"face" the globe, other nations were seen to be stripping down the results of industrial economics, and turning whole hearted attention to the stabilization of their societies. While Beijing, ChongQing, Macau, HongKong, and ShangHai continued to race towards "the future," the vision of that future was changing, and the availability of resources necessary to propel such a future dwindled rapidly.

Despite China's best efforts to secure stable trade relationships with Africa, South America, and Oceania, as the crunches for its potable water and oil needs, many of these nations began to stockpile whatever resources were available to them. Repealing international trade agreements and drastically raising the prices and taxes of exports, many of the nations responsible for exporting raw materials to China deemed the monetary profits of little advantage compared to keeping those resources at home. As public and private military units scoured the globe to leverage resources to their funding agencies, China's million man army was deployed to secure Asia, and whatever other assets it could.

Sadly, a rapid decline of potable water resulted in the majority of global military actions being short-lived. Logistical attacks carried out on military databases, and communications networks resulted in huge numbers of soldiers being stranded in the field, and subject to the environment in which they were stationed. As each year passes and news of another mass execution site comes through the moratorium channels, we are still realizing to extent to which military action by most nations failed, and humanity's "level" playing field was founded. For example, the camp of nearly 30,000 Chinese now living in northern Chile was initially deployed on a mission to secure lumber and possible precious metals. Encountering resistance from U.S.- and Colombian-backed private armies, and running dangerously low on supplies, the soldiers negotiated a truce, trading 80 percent of their weapons for the small pocket of forest that they now inhabit. Similar stories concerning ex-NATO coalition forces in Central Asia and the Saudi Peninsula also pepper the communication channels.

As regions continued to harbor their natural resources, and restrict their trade, the People's Republic of China brought new construction projects to a screeching halt. The highly centralized governance ordered strict prohibitions on urban development projects not imminently necessary for the maintenance of infrastructure and bare-bones housing. While the 14th five-year was aimed at de-urbanization and bolstering of security in the rural community, stemming the flow of the city-bound millions proved to be more difficult than anticipated. The thriving black markets of the city, and exploitable infrastructure for mass mobility and shelter continued to draw the rural workforces to the metropolitan areas. Those staying in the rural areas were generally members of the local Party, and worked for private gain and security. Provincial Army units were often swayed by the promises of the highest bidder, and modern warlords reigned in control of the resource wealthy areas of the PRC.

The unity and national identity that had been crucial to the forming of the People's Republic of China began to quickly unravel, and the dark under belly of the dragon-nation slowly emerged. On buildings, the crumbling stone facades began to slowly unhinge from the steel skeletons that held them. While main highways and thorough fares were well maintained initially, the rapid degradation of the cities' peripheral roadways spilled more congestion onto the main roads. As side alleys piled up with fuel-less cars, the pressures began to impede major waterworks throughout major urban centers. The "Wash" of Beijing 2028, a project aimed to clear the city's sewage system through heavy rain inducement, became a disaster of the profoundest magnitude. After the third day of deluge rains, the city's ailing water pump facilities gave out, spilling millions of gallons of untreated sewage into the underground passages of the city. The passages housed much of the electrical infrastructure for the metropolitan area, and weeks of standing water slowly brought darkness to nearly every city block in the inner three rings, and over half of the developments between the third and fourth rings.

Beijing's decent into chaos was only one example of urban disarray in the People's Republic of China and in other global super-cities. Capable urbanites fled to the city outskirts in an effort to cling to the lifestyles they had once dreamed about, where they were promptly confronted by the incoming masses in flight from the rural war zones. As groups clashed, and swaths of the cities were abandoned, the fragility of Beijing's "face" lay exposed to the people for whom it was once the key component of the term "better life."

The materials of buildings became re-cycled walls for temporary shelters. Glass plates that weren't laying shattered around streets or building floors was re-claimed for make shift water collection projects, and a variety of small scale greenhouses. Sheet metal was garnered by bands of wrench and crowbar wielding "urban recyclers," often selling the goods to resource hordes or using the materials for personal shelters, etc. The physical facade of Beijing -- the elegant gardens, the freshly painted historical monuments, the mammoth centers for sport, art, business, education, and culture-- were to become the symbols of broken hope, as time and necessity worked their way into slight, crooked gaps in the grout.

Perhaps more devastating was the collapse of the Cultural Facade that had pulled the PRC through such a radical transformation during the early 21st century. As the nation fell into disarray, the tenuous national pride and identity quickly turned itself inside out, resulting in the division of China's demographic landscape along regional, fiscal, ethnic and other distinction lines. The once powerful Party fell into vicious power cliques, and the infighting that ensued alienated nearly 60% of the representative members and nearly 80% of the provincial representation. This debasement of power forced the urban social elite to begin allocating a larger percentage of power to the resource rich rural representatives, and their new agenda. The generation gap between the middle-agers of a prosperous and growing China, the elderly who vastly outnumbered them, and the toughened-without-loyalties youth continued to be one of the largest problems the nation faced. The elderly, mainly forced to take care of themselves founded large communal installments in the outskirts of provincial urban centers. Their children, inheriting a nation on the skids, found themselves vastly outnumbered concerning the amount and type of work to be done, and the skills for which many of them had been trained. The youth, though small in number, represented a large portion of the able-bodied populous, and many, unwilling to be the caretakers for the huge number of elderly, were to be found in the ranks of private armies.

Unified China, the great anchor for the Asian continent, found itself acting more of the great hull of the necessary oil rigs that stopped coming -- sunk under the weight of plans, pirates, and need for petrol. Though China was not alone in the great global collapse that has occurred, this historian, chronicling the fall from grace in Beijing, can only offer these thoughts and shreds of information and insights. We hope that whoever is reading these, and whenever you find yourself, can find some solace in what was the dream that drove this once great nation. Like the phoenix that once symbolized this mighty nation, perhaps some flame for the future can be found in these passages.

Unknown, circa 2053

September Reflections: Seoul - a peek at Beijing's Future?

In 1988, the Olympic games were held in Seoul, South Korea, marking the country's progress and development in its short history. Largely regarded as a success, the '88 Olympics were the first games held on mainland Asia, and were highly touted as Asia's entrance into the developed world.

Now, twenty years later, as we embark upon the task of outlining possible futures for Beijing, China, Asia, and parts of the world, I was fortuitously afforded the chance to go to Seoul. In gathering visual evidence of the living remains of the Olympic festival of 88, and exploring the metropolis of Seoul for various indicators of cultural, economic, and political health, I was able to glean only the quickest and dirtiest of opinions. However, the significance of Seoul as a possible pointer for the cultural, technological, and demographic trends of greater Asia, may lend foundational support for some of the Future Scenarios stemming from the Beijing Games and the research of this project.


The Olympic Highway and Lotte World

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to make it all the way to the official Olympic Village of the '88 games. Along the road to what would have been a goldmine of theoretical tangents for my research, the median is lined with the national flags of the participating nations. Various tribute sculptures remain-- well kept despite being surrounded by a 6 lane urban highway. Most likely, the timing of my visit allowed me to see this section of Olympic Highway in a high state of floral decoration, and cleanliness. Though other aspects of the city would just as easily lead me to believe that this avenue always looks so well maintained.




These photos were snapped just outside the gates of the famous Lotte World, a huge complex including a high end shopping mall, a Korean Folk Museum, Lotte Luxury Hotel, and an amusement park with both indoor and outdoor components. The official opening of the Lotte World Adventure Park was in 1989, making much of its construction congruent with the Olympic Games, and most likely a major hub for post-Olympic, peripheral development in the area.

Boasting a massive indoor amusement park, with roller coasters, theme rides, indoor ice-skating rink, and a elevated tram, the Lotte World Adventure is as much a testament to state-of-the-art construction for its time as it is a fun place to go. Is it likely that similar installations will go into development at the close of the Beijing Games? Does the new National Forest Park, a huge swath of (relatively central) Beijing that has been set aside as green space represent not only a more expensive venture, but also a testament to China's commitment to "green"? For now we can only speculate, but my opinion is that both may turn true, and indoor amusement on a scale as grand as this is soon to follow.



In downtown Seoul, a red and blue, spiral pinnacle marks the emergence of the Cheonggyecheon River. Installed at the gateway of Seoul's downtown Olympic Park, the river now has a dual role in the cities urban art --standing as a tribute to the Games and other important events that have been hosted by the city, and also as a social center for festivals, markets, and, at night, the cities youth.



For a majority of its trek down-stream, the Cheonggyechong is kept shallow, and border by steps for sitting and resting one's tired feet in the cool water. It's clean appearance, and safe atmosphere are maintained by the city, and some private volunteers. What remnants of art, culture, and social ideology will remain for the Beijing Olympic sites? Were Seoul's city planners aware that the river would be a mecca for the myriad of Seoul's youth who stumble down to the river for a good foot soaking?

By looking at Seoul from a demographic stance, it is more likely that the fate of this small downtown stream was well planned and orchestrated by the Urban Design teams responsible for creating the urban world that more than half of South Korea now calls home. Indeed, the National Capital Area, including Seoul, Incheon, and the greater metropolitan area, is home to nearly 26 million people, and its population continues to grow, placing it among the highest human populated areas on the planet.

As Beijing grows quickly towards the 20 million mark in population, and other urban centers of China meet and eclipse that same figure, massive shifts will occur, and urban designers and planning teams will be forced to push the limits of their creativity and foresight. Watching peers cities like Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong, mainland PRC's urban centers will be keen to maximize efficiency of all resource consumption, transportation, and growth patterns. Increasing the pervasiveness of communications technologies, alternative energies, and integrated medias will also be of high importance, and installations like the Digital Media City in Seoul (opening in 2010), could likely be a significant working example of "ubiquitous" society.

DIGITAL MEDIA CITY

The DMC project is being hailed by the Korean government as a "'futuristic city center'[that] will function as the test-bed and hub of the digital media industry focusing on movie, broadcasting, animation, music, and online-education." With sponsorship by some major corporations like Woori Bank, LG CNS and LG Telecom, Korea Electronics Association, PANTECH, KBS Media, and the Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation it may turn out that these claims are conservative. I will briefly discuss some of the major portions of the DMC concept, but I highly advise any visitors to go to the main website for further exploration.

The Digital Media Street (DMS) will run the entire length of the DMC and offer a number of novel technological advances in invisible and ubiquitous personal communications and media availability. From high-speed wireless (capable of seamless HD streaming), to HUD social-profiles for other pedestrians on the street, embedded lights that respond to both the environment and the individual, and animated tour guides, the DMS will be a unique amalgamate of the latest stage of wireless immersive technologies. Whether or not the idealized experience, and the actual experience compare to one another is quite another story, and we will visit again in the future to test usability, novelty, and impressions.

The "Eco-friendly" terminology has been heavily employed by the public relations department, and the evidence of this puh can be seen in a few technologies integrated into the design plans. For instance, the land on which the DMC will sit is a reclaimed landfill that has been turned into an "eco-park," and eco-friendly housing is touted as the best way to " achieve eco-friendly development and create technology that puts man first." Truly, a claim of the highest moral intentions. Specific examples of eco-friendly technologies employed in the creation of the housing units, the eco-park, and the massive glass and steel facilities have yet to be fully released.




Seoul, 2008, 20 years after it played host to the world for 17 days of athletic competition is in many ways thriving. The Korean Culture Wave is sweeping across East Asia, and installations like the DMC are being built to ensure that influence remains cutting edge. The population of the National Capital Area, and the standard of living that they enjoy, continues to increase. And the '88 Olympic Motto "Harmony and Progress," may well be viewed as poetry in motion.

September: Widening the Scope

In September, the One World, One Dream. Whose? blog will begin its final stage as a Futures Research experiment, an experiment geared at viewing the Beijing Olympics of 2008 in regards to China's past, present, and possible futures. In June we examined the long history of the nation now known as the People's Republic of China. In July, an examination of the current trends effecting the social-political-economic-and technological aspects of Chinese society. August, Was reserved for the Olympic games, the culmination of nearly a decades worth of planning, construction, and building of "the dream," and what we saw in that final version.

Now it is time to look at possible directions for the evolution of that dream and to broaden the scope of our imaginations and critical eye. We will begin to contextualize the Images of the Future as documented during the Beijing Games -- contextualize them in terms of the futures possible.

This contextualization will be centered upon an Alternative Futures exercise that uses the four foundational futures as a basis for the creation of scenarios. These fictitious scenes will present possible future worlds, from a variety of perspectives, representative of and built around the ideas of a Continued Growth Scenario, Decline/Decay Scenario, Disciplined Society, and Transformational Society. These will by no means be comprehensive or all-inclusive worlds, rather brief glimpses into possibilities.

By extrapolating some of the signifiers that were discussed in August's examination of Images, we will create and explore some of the futures that the Beijing Games have given us a glimpse of.
But first, we take one last look at the Olympiad, and its legacy...

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Passing the Torch

While the Beijing Olympics 2008 come to an end, the world is reminded that the Olympic tradition will continue in four years time in London, England. Though positive and negative commentary on the Beijing Games will continue to issue forth from analysts, journalists, and experts, many organizers and committees have already moved their focus to the upcoming games in the crown jewel of the once world encompassing British Empire.

The closing ceremonies, held in Beijing's "Bird's Nest" on August 23rd, dedicated part of the performance to the necessary passing of the torch to the hosting city, and in this time the world was given a myriad of images demonstrative of the ideas that will go into the design of the 2012 London Games. By employing a critical eye that directs our attention to a longer time frame, and broad scope of historic, and futures-oriented trends we may uncover some additional meaning to this brief exposure to Images from 2012.

The most expressive moment of the "London Games" portion of the show was not a double-decker bus transforming into a performance stage for Jimmy Page and David Beckham to do what they do best, but rather the extensive use of the symbolic "boarding of the bus."

While the act of getting on the bus has been used to symbolise a number of things in Western culture, it draws much of its symbolism from the idea that people collectively decide to allow another entity to take responsibility for their safety in transport. Similar to the train, the bus has become a symbol for collective transference of trust into the person at the controls of the mass-transit system. This imagery is often employed to represent the transference of trust in other ways: into a organizational specific charter, a political identity, or even a consumer mindset. The bus, and boarding thereof, has proven symbolically important for decades, and thus we are forced to pay attention to its use in the "passing of the torch."

As the video montage that played for the live audience (both at the Bird's Nest, and those viewing the CCTV broadcast), we follow a bus as it weaves through a pop-graphic 3D environment composed of London's iconography. The Clock Tower, Westminster Abbey, The London Eye, Buckingham Palace, and the British Museum are among the many notable pictures that paint the virtual landscape. Couple with this are various modes that encompass London culture from cab drivers and punk rockers to bankers, soldiers, and artists.

As the audience's attention is shifted from this virtual landscape to the live-action performers in the Bird's Nest, we see a modern double-decker bus touring the covered track. As the double-decker approaches the "bus stop" the audience is presented with a picture of those in queue for the bus ride: umbrella toting, newspaper reading, and hip-hop dancing Londoners dressed to represent the racial and economic diversity that exists in the modern city. As the bus pulls in, and the mad dash for the door begins we have the crux of the performance, and the most-telling futures image of the evening. The Londoners are repelled from the door to reveal a young Indian girl.

So...now we are confronted with a very interesting Image, likely fraught with intentional symbolism. India, comprised of some of the oldest cultures of human history, was once a British Colony, regained its governance and sovereignty in 1947 at the end of the British Raj. These nations' relationship has encompassed trade, territorial claims, cultural bias and discrimination, bi-lateral beneficial cultural exposure, and a significant emigration of peoples, knowledge, and technology from both countries. Many view India as an economic force that will become more influential than even China, as a booming population, and stabilizing national government may preclude a massive economic expansion.

The viewer, aware of some of these histories and expectations, must therefore examine the following gestures of the Indian-girl character with the utmost of scrutiny.

The girl, exits the bus, and approaches a young girl of Chinese nationality who is holding a football (soccer ball). The two exchange smiles and the football to a roaring crowd response. After the exchange the young Indian walks across the backs of the queued Londoners en route to re-boarding the bus. A well choreographed segment of the show, to be sure, but to what extent this points towards Britain's attitude toward India and the future of her vast population, we can only speculate.

However, the immediate response to the implied symbolism could be that Britain, in its bid to win back the hearts of the Indian populous is willing to have it's own hard-working, bus-taking population supplicate on behalf of the rising nation. Even if such actions were to occur in the coming decades, and the scope of historical context were to pass it off as a case of "just desserts," it is likely that the backs walked over will not feel the same sentiment.

Rather than dwell on this particular image presented by the future host of the Olympic Games, let's turn our focus to another holding nearly as much poignancy to possible Futures. As the "torch passing" segment of the ceremony is coming to a close we see 3 tourist-clad actors mount a throwback airline boarding staircase reminiscent of many a presidential plan boarding movie clips. However, at the end of the staircase, no plane awaits these young travellers, and apparently no amount of high-wire engineering so prevalent in the rest of the ceremony was able to conjure up an escape for these young travellers.

Could this gesture be an acknowledgement of some of the current strains on the global aviation industry, as fuel prices and passenger reluctance reach new heights? While it is unlikely that all of the world's planes will be fuel-less in four years, it is possible that location, and rising costs (for travel at least) may make the 2012 Olympics more cost prohibitive for its younger fans.

As is true for most futures oriented thinking, only time will tell if these hypothetical relationships exist between Symbolic Image, and lived reality...

As for the Olympics, the torch now resumes its global run, and returns to London, after a century of absence. Beijing, post-Olympic fervor, has become a hive of speculation, both domestically and internationally, even while the Para-lympics wait to begin.

Questions surrounding Beijing, China, and broader Futures at stake will be listed, addressed, and speculated upon in September...

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: "The Future is Forever Frontward"

We take the title of this post from one of the music videos that has been circulating on Chinese television during the Olympic Games. The video, comprised of numerous rising singer-stars from Chinese burgeoning music industry dancing and singing together on a fusion set of hutong architecture, and various water and light displays, has been airing on CCTV.

In total, 10 music videos were officially sponsored by the Chinese Olympic Advisory Committee, and have been playing on Chinese Television for months. The thematic song "Beijing Welcomes You," from which the cartooned "Fu Wa" Olympic icons draw their names, included over 100 of China's biggest performers. Here is a link to the video with translation and a comprehensive list of the stars shown throughout the video.

Other videos are listed here:

One World One Dream by Liu Huan and Na Ying
Everyone is No. 1 by Andy Lau
This Is Our Dream by Wang Feng
Stand Up feat. Jackie Chan, Leehom Wang, Stefanie Sun, Han Hong
Forever Friends by Sun, Nan, and Amei
Sky by Jing Tan
We Are Ready by Nicholas Tse
Love's in Beijing by Sun Nan
Living Together on the Blue Planet by Nicholas Tse and Joey Yung
Cheers for Life by Han Hong and Yu Quan



The production for many of these music videos was conducted in late 2007 and early 2008 -- a testament to the speed and proficiency that Chinese media has learned for orchestrating projects of this scope. Perhaps one of the most interesting insights that these videos give us from a production perspective is the amount of cooperation that the Chinese government was able garner from both mainland and Hong Kong super stars. While little has been posted concerning the production budgets of these videos, we are curious to know the expense incurred to bring so many lucrative names together. If these artists were compelled more by a sense of national pride, and obligation, rather than a paycheck, it could have significance in the continued development of China's multi-media environment.

Many of the themes prevalent in these songs and videos are very much oriented toward egalitarian and future-thinking ideals. Camera shots of children, para-Olympian athletes, multi-ethnic crowds, and many of China' s iconic architectures combine to present us with an overview of the national media atmosphere. The transference of the broadcast ideals to the viewing audience has yet to be gauged nor fully unfurled. However, at least in Beijing, the extent to which these videos have pervaded television screens and available channels is extensive, thus implying that some reactions should be observable, both long term and short term.

It is still unknown to what degree these videos are airing outside of Beijing, but each deserves viewing (for entertainment of course), and analysis of content( for later enquiry).

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: The letter of the century: C

there were just too many contortions and usages of the letter C to choose just one for this article which will take a look at one company that is heavily vested in the Beijing Olympic Games: Coca-Cola.

As mentioned before Coca-Cola has saturated the Beijing Olympic Games, and much of Beijing along with it.

The 1 line, Beijing's first subway line running from the East 5th ring road to the Fragrant Hills on the city's West side, has few paid advertisers. this is not because there is a lack of advertising space, but due to the saturation of the available space by few select companies, and none more than Coca-Cola. A major junction point of 3 subway lines at DongZhiMen, has been saturated by Coca-cola for the whole of July and August as seen in the video below:







At the venues, Coca-Cola was able to secure what appears to be a total monopoly on advertising in relation to any of its competitors in the Food and Beverage Industry. Below are pictures of Coke ads from the Tennis Venue, the Beach Volleyball Venue in ChaoYang Park, The Worker's Stadium venue, from around the Olympic Village. See Photos here:









As is evident from these photos, the Coca-Cola corporation has invested huge quantities of money into the Beijing Olympic Games, but the question of Why seems to be no question at all.
Drawing from the Visa card's slogan, the only other sponsor with a prevailing presence at all venues, Coca-Cola intends to be everywhere, anyone wants to be, now and LONG into the futures.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: A bit-a-bruit

Two days ago, I was lucky enough to attend the semifinal of the women's soccer at Gong Ti, the Worker's Stadium, between the United States and Japan. I was excited as this would be my first visit inside of the stadium, which has stood in Beijing long before the Olympic Games.

Built in 1959, as a commemorative monument to the PRC's Tenth anniversary, this stadium is home to the Beijing Hyundai (a.k.a. Guo'an), the city's team in China's recently born "Premier" soccer league. It was recently renovated in preparation for its role in this year's summer games, and now has a seating capacity of over 70,000. There are future plans for it to host the first ever NFL game in China (August of 2009).

As a preface, this was the first time I was knowingly walking into a U.S.A. competitive match, and had enough time to think about some of the issues at stake. One issue, which is not openly discussed in China is the general animosity that many have for the Japanese, the U.S. teams opponents. Secondly, China's deeply seeded desire to stand atop the Medal heap at the end of these Games puts the PRC against the U.S., a well documented rivalry. Lastly, from a futures perspective, Gong Ti is now dwarfed by its big brother, the Bird's Nest, and many question what purpose either of them will serve in the future.

To address the first issue:

It is well known that China has some deep feelings of anger for the Japanese. These feelings come from the two Sino-Japanese wars of the last century, and Japan's economic dominance in Asia during the later part of the century. Recent surveys amongst China's youth show that anger for the Japanese is subsiding, a trend attributed to China's economic success, and the passing of time since the Japanese withdrawal from mainland China. I went to the game with a Chinese friend of mine, and while he was not anti-Japanese, he was adamantly rooting for a U.S.A. victory.
As was the rest of the Chinese flag touting crowd.

Perhaps due to China's success so far in the games or the American fans adaptation of the inspirational rally chant into Mei Guo, Jiao You, the Chinese fans in the crowd quickly picked up on the side of the U.S.A. Though the crowd sat quiet for a majority of the time, when a good play, or a goal was had by a U.S.A. player the cheering was deafening in comparison to the support for the Japanese team. In regards to the medal haul, Chinese fans still came out for good football, and apparently even more so for good American football.... er.... soccer.

And as for the stadium itself, speculation abounds, but it will likely remain home to the nascent Chinese Football Association (CFA) presence in Beijing. This league is a significant step for China, and for the tremendous potential many see in the area of Chinese professional sports. With such a huge population, games like football, basketball, and other easily accessible sports are widely popular, but to date there has been little support for profitable professional sports leagues in the PRC. The CFA and Chinese Basketball Association represent the most successful ventures to date, but have yet to turn a legitimate profit. Analysts and supporters are keen to view the development of this economic area in the future, and Gong Ti and other large scale venues stand ready to capitalize on the emergence of one or more sports circuits.



Gong Ti, the worker's stadium seems to be anticipating one or more sports markets to emerge. Its increased capacity, and recent upgrades on safety precautions would seem to signify planners long term plans. Additionally, it has even been refitted with a huge display screen that can turn 180 degrees and face the street. This megalithic T.V. will apparently face the street and one of the most popular neighborhoods in modern Beijing, during non-game time -- broadcasting public announcements, CCTV1, and even commercials. So even as real estate prices for the SanLiTun area continue to flower, Gong Ti will be able to subsidize its presence with advertisements, and support from the governing media.

The futures of the Bird's Nest will be discussed in more detail in a following article...stay tuned.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Solar Glow Walls and Basketballs

On Saturday I was able to travel to West Beijing, and the quickly developing area around WuKeSong where the baseball and basketball venues were constructed. Without dwelling too much on the symbolism embedded in the building of the venues for two of the most popular western sports in the farther western reaches of the city, we dare say it was intentional. Additionally, we would like to propose that the pairing of the two venues has an additional aspect in terms of long term stratagem for creating a professional sports market here in the PRC.

Basketball represents one of the most popular and fastest growing sports in China. Sources quote anywhere from 100 to 600 million nationwide "participants" in the sport-- players, fans, organizers, and television viewers. The successful Chinese Basketball Association (CBA), started in 1995, has 14 teams, each playing a 36 game regular season, and the league currently draws crowds of over 800,000 total annually. Many, including NBA coordinators, view these statistics as only a beginning for the presence of basketball in China.

Baseball on the other hand has had quite the opposite reception in the PRC. While many nations of East Asia, notably Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, have been very successful in the sport, China is referred to as a "baseball desert" by many. Though 2002 saw the beginning of the Chinese Baseball League, mainland China's newest attempt at a professional level organization, it boasts only 6 teams and a 3-month-long season. However, due to China's huge population and interest in developing professional athletics, both American and Japanese professional baseball leagues have started to invest in the sport across the nation.

It would seem a likely scenario therefore, that the location of the basketball venue and baseball venue in such close proximity was more than just a way to categorize them together as "western" sports. Rather, this strategic placement may be a maneuver on behalf of outside interests to garner support for baseball, and compel its potential in the PRC. By joining the two sports in locale, visitors will undoubtedly begin to make connections between the two sport, and it is hoped that baseball will receive some extra attention.

Why the interest in growing a sports industry here in China: I just opened up a bag of chips and found something from my youth--a basketball player trading card. An NBA superstar, and player for the U.S.A. basketball team is staring at me from behind the card's glossy overlay as I put the chips to my mouth, and the NBA logo sits firmly in the card's upper right hand corner. All text is in Chinese. The market potential for sports iconography in China is huge.

With homegrown stars like Yao Ming of the Houston Rockets (NBA) drawing lucrative contracts and commercial deals, and a potential fan base of over a billion to pour their hard earned yuan into consumerism, Chinese professional athletics is viewed as rife with profits to be made. The commercial success of foreign sports icons in China has been huge for names like Manchester United, Michael Jordan, and the New York Yankees. As China's interest in professional sporting grows, so to will the interest in sports from around the world.

Similarly, sportswear producers see China as a market that can have a big influence on the entire industry. Top-dollar brands are of course heavily vested in and around the Olympics through direct and ambush marketing tactics. While Adidas was able to win the "official partner" status of the Beijing Games and Team China, other companies have taken the opportunity to pour on the commercials. China's growing middle class, and their disposable income, is being vied for heavily, and even brands that have lost their shine in other nations are able to build new identities and new customer bases.

And as for the Solar Glow Wall title of this blog, near the Wukesong venues is an installment of a technology that addresses both large scale advertising projects, and the "green" theme of the Beijing Games. Unveiled in May 2008, the Zero Energy Media Wall is the product of a cooperative development team composed of Chinese and German researchers. Covering over 24,000 square feet, and powered purely by a self contained photo-voltaic array, the installment is used to show artistic works. However, as a substitute for the prevalent (and energy consumptive) neon light displays on many Beijing store fronts, and the single use billboards around town, it is likely that this kind of sustainable and flexible technology will be adopted more.


Thus, the Yao Mings, MJ's, Beckham's, Kobe's, and Tiger's of China's growing professional sports circuits will have another venue in which they and their "favorite" gear can appear larger than life.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: And now... Many signs from "our" sponsors

There are numerous global sponsors, and China based "partners" of the Beijing Olympics 2008:

Here is a list of the most prominent, and the visual onslaught that they have brought down on the cities public transportation system. Please view the slide show for visual evidence.

Global Partners:
1)Coca-Cola
2)McDonald's
3)GE
4) Lenovo
5) Panasonic
6)Manulife
7)Omega
8)Kodak
9)Johnson & Johnson
10)Samsung
11) Visa
12)Atos Origin

China Partners:

1) Bank of China
2)CNC (China Network Communications)
3)SinoPEC
4) CNPC
5) Volkswagen
5) Adidas
6) China Mobile
7) Air China
8) Johnson & Johnson
9)PICC
10) State Grid


We mention these companies because of their heavy investment in and around the "dream" games, and the potential long-term marketing that is going-on. More images of the heavy presence of these companies along major transportation routes, in public spaces with high pedestrian traffic, and even key television spots are to follow to understand the saturation that is taking place.

After all, the minds of a consumer populous of 1.3 billion are attentive, inspired, and supple. Is this forward thinking as well as the formation of future thought patterns?

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Cheap Plastic Color

Borrowing from the acronym that represents the leading political party in China, the title of this article will discuss the general pervasiveness of plastics in the PRC.

As the rain came down on Wednesday's Tennis venue, boxes of rainbow-colored rain ponchos were distributed among the many thousands of spectators at Beijing's Outdoor venues. While the sight proved to be quite and aesthetically humorous one, the deeper implications of this sort of behavior are a problem in China and other parts of the world.

In January of 2008 China passed policy limiting the use, sale, and manufacture of plastic bags in the nation. A nation wide surcharge for plastic bags was mandated, a tactic recently employed in some U.S. states and EU nations, and the manufacture of some types of bag was completely outlawed. The reason behind these policies is the basic chemical composition of plastics and its inherent resistance to degradation. Plastic has a general lifespan of many thousands of years, thus making it a Futures Image in and of itself.

However, the longevity of its chemical composition does not transfer to the usefulness of the products that are made out of it, and these many thousands of ponchos being donned at the Olympics, and everywhere else in the world that happens to see the occasional rain storm, are a perfect statement to that fact. For about 80 cents (US), two ponchos (alternatively viewed as human sized plastic bags) were purchased at a nearby corner store. With in five minutes of being worn, they were already showing stress marks, and one of the plastic snaps had begun to tear. It was obvious that these were not meant to last as rain guards, but no collection measures were in place to ensure their recycle either.

This is not an Olympic specific problem, but it does constitute an Olympic sized issue for our consideration.

For more information concerning the Production, Use and Impact of plastic bags please refer to the following pages.


JUNKRAFT -- from California to Hawaii on your plastics

Wikipedia -- Plastic Shopping Bags

Alternate Views on the Threat of Plastic Bags:

Times Online : Non-Threat

Worldwatch: Threat

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: A collection of Images

Today, we revisit the main hub of the Olympics 2008, between Pangu Hotel (the Torch), The National Aquatic Center, and the Bird's Nest. Ranging outside the fence once more, the following images were gathered, and will be briefly discussed.





The first Image is the megalithic clock. Understandably, a public countdown clock to any large event helps to build the excitement and anticipation amongst those who passby. The original Countdown clock was unveiled in Tiananmen Square nearly four years ago. Since then no -less than 5 additional clocks speckle Beijing's Highways. Police Stations and public facilities have also sported these wonderful devices, and as time went they all ran on towards Zero. I am searching for an official count of the number of countdown clocks across China, and more information on how prolific they are outside of the capital.

And now...there they all stand. Zeros across the board. The question of their purpose in times to come probably isn't much of a concern at this moment, but as years go on all of these relics are sure to become a collectors item for the generations that were most impressionable during the countdown. I wonder what kind of effect a constant reminder of this nature has on an individual, a community, or an entire culture.

Omega, the offical time keeper of the Beijing, Vancouver, and London Oympics has unveiled the Vancouver installation, and has plans for a similar version in London. We would like to consider the stark contrast of these clock in comparison with another monolith tribute to Time -- The Clock of the Long Now.

The Long Now Foundation began building the Millenium Clock in 01996, and the first prototype was initiated on new year's eve of 01999. We add an additional digit to these dates because of the scope of the project -- building a clock that will run accurately for 10,000 years. The prototype design is currently being improved for a larger version that will stand in an undisclosed location in Nevada, US.

To sum up a comparison of these two projects in less than a hundred words. The Olympic Clock was built to run to zero, and stand as reminder to millions that there was a bigger idea to build towards. The Clock of the Long Now has been designed to run for 10,000 years, and stand as a reminder to millions that there is a bigger idea to build towards. So far pretty similar.

But the ideas that drive the difference between countdown, and count-on, are quite different. The Olympic Clocks drive the building of monuments that will likely last less than a hundred years. The amount of human/natural resources, mind/idea power, and even things as mobius as "national spirit" required to build towards an event like th Beijing Olympics is draining. The fallout for China after the games is already coming under speculation in some circles.

Meanwhile, the ideas and challenges that drive the design and construction of a clock that will last an amount of time equal to the length of human history is transforming. The type of thought, resources, and energy that pours into a solution for this kind of problem is altogether differnt than that listed above. As is the end outcome.





This series of images comes from a new housing development directly across the street from the epicenter of the Beijing Olympics. Constructed in the past 3 years and openend in late 2007, this housing development was partially created for some of the families reocated for the building of the Olympic venues.

I thought it poigniant that these large concrete based towers were encrusted with pieces of broken of ceramic art. Shards of vases, tile, and fine "china" create an interesting montage. Especially considering the outcry from the estimated 250,000 people who were moved to make way for the construction of this proud national monument.

Just food for thought.








These last two Images are short, ambient eye-pieces, meant to give tribute to a major driving force behind the Beijing Olympic Games -- the nation of 1.3 billion people. The Olympiad has been a unifying factor for the nation of China, and many different projects on display around the Bird's Nest attest to that. These "Sponsors" and other like them have led very interesting existences during the build up to the games.

On a positive note, these projects serve as a testament to the inspiration and creativeness that have been born as a result of these games. The sense of national pride, and unification have spread across the huge expanse of China. For seven years, a goal and purpose behind China's development stood in the public mind, and stood as evidence not just political rhetoric. On the otherside of the argument is a complex question -- What will fill this void in the years to come?

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: "U-Home" brought to by Haier

Chaoyang Park is located just inside of Beijing's 4th ring road, in the quickly developing East Side of the city. It 60 plus hectare area is currently one of the cities largest green spaces, including a small amusement park, massive lake system, and miles of walking paths. Sony Entertainment has built a Science exploration center here, and other commercial interests are allowed to build within the park and keep its high priced real estate green. It is also host to the Beach Volleyball portion of the Olympic Games.

Upon entering the gates to the Park, i was immediately met with Coca Cola companies marketing campaign-- Cheerleaders dancing below a mammoth screen, music blaring at alarming levels, and more Red and White everythings than could be listed here. More commentary on companies saturating the Olympic surroundings, and their prolific use of the Olympic logo in entries to come.

Tucked just behind the soda installation were two bubble dome structures, rising from the sidewalk like bubbles through a straw into a glass of Mother's Milk. The hot pink signs emblazoned along the pathway denoted this territory of Haier, a China based manufacturer of home-appliances and technologies. I was abruptly invited to investigate the "U-home" installation, a glimpse into the "future" of households.

And there it was... the seemingly ever-prevalent view of automated everything, hearkening back to the Immersive Images like GE's "Home of the Future", Disney's "Tomorrowland"(1984) or (2008).

Technologies on display:

1) The Refrigerator-- with Internet access, a camera for recording messages to the family, and RFID enabled stock management. We are told it can even be set to pre-order food for delivery via online retailers and delivery agents.

2)The Air Conditioner -- with television, and Internet access. Can be turned on via text message!

3)The Home Computer -- But this time without any of those nuisances, like wires.

4) The Touch Screen Panel -- Translucent glass embedded with touch screen sensors. Browse the Internet, order and watch movies, organize your life... by touch.

5) The Video Conference -- A center hub houses five cameras. Display camera switches depending on the person speaking. You can talk to your bosses anywhere in the world!

6) The Television -- now waterproof and ready for your tub/spa experience.

7) The Water Heater -- Send it a text message and it can have the warm water ready for you as you crawl along the ring road in your car.

8) The Clothes Washer -- Now detergent free.


The Home of the Future.... now!!!!!

But let's analyze this from a futures perspective.

We are presented with a vision of the future that is now nearly 80 years old. The original vision of the future was created during GE's most visionary time, when innovation and technology were just coming into the public eye on a mass marketing scale. These visions were also developed before environmental degradation, limited resource availability, and cultural extinction came under consideration.

A closer analysis of the actual technologies also turns up some interesting points. Many of the showcased technologies are now considered standard in most western homes, with saturation levels of 6 of the 8 listed technologies above 90 percent. The integration of the Internet and cellular communications technologies were not explicitly included in GE's original "futures" images, but it was implicit that ubiquitous communication would exist via some technology or another.

Perhaps the most important implication of Haier's "U-home" is that this Image of the Future, still is an amazing future to behold for a majority of China's population. This gives companies like Haier, and other companies in the Home Appliance industry a huge market to inspire, and entice. Additionally, the use of this "future" as a selling piece for possibilities here in China might imply that as other developing nations evolve they too may be presented with the same.

The factors that lie behind the manufacture, maintenance, and disposal of these technologies have begun to influence new opinions of their convenience and usefulness in societies that have been normalized to them. The long term impacts of the technologies is encouraging a re-thinking of them, while alternative innovations wait for consumer support and an equally powerful marketing campaign.

This begs the question: Is this the home U-want?

Opening Ceremonies and First Impressions

The following video clips are the first pieces of evidence gathered as Images of the Future.







Image 1: PEOPLE

If there is no other factor that is of the utmost concern to the future it is the people that will populate it. To be in the People's Republic of China, therefore, on the eve of the Olympic Games and to see the throngs of security forces, volunteers, and fans that the event drew, forced this fact to the forefront of this blog.

In the videos above, you will see that people were in fact everywhere. It has been estimated that seating capacity for the Bird's Nest, site of the Opening Ceremony, is 90,000. Of those seats it has been estimated that approximately 80,000 were reserved for athletes visitors, sponsors, industrial partners, and other members of China's elite. This left approximately 10,000 official seats for sale, and those have been sold out since October 2007. The population of Beijing alone is 17,000,000.

This meant that most of Beijing would be watching the Olympics on a television screen, as would most of the world.

As a resident of Beijing, and humble researcher, I thought it my duty to do my best to get some fieldwork done, and I headed up to the venues by subway. After all, any digital remnants of the television broadcast would be available via YouTube, BitTorrent, or other online source. This experience, no matter the end proximity to the event could not be missed. I found upon exiting the subway, that I was not the only person to have had this thought. Thousands of pedestrians were out and about, and the local government had very well prepared itself for such a contingency.

Security barriers were established with a one block buffer zone for the venues. However, as barriers were confronted by the masses of people just wishing to be close to the event, small gaps in the barriers opened. Every time a gap was made or exploited by the prodding pedestrians, the police would temporarily give way, regroup, and establish a new barrier from which to push the people back. Each time this process occurred the barrier shrunk in size, and the outside onlookers were able to peer at the firework spectacle from closer and closer.

The chant:

"Zhong Guo, Jiao Yo!" (Go China!!!)
Rose up time and again.

Impressions:

With the limited number of tickets to all the games, and all having been sold out months in advance, my first impression was that getting a closer view of the Futures Images of the Olympics 2008 was going to be a challenge.

The visual analogy of a cell wall buffering the contents of the cell from foreign entities ran through my mind a number of times while circling outside the security lines. The constant testing of the security lines by us "outsiders," coupled with the organic movement of the security forces compelled this picture in my mind. The enlivened movement of people who had found a weakness in the barrier, and the excitement in their eyes, spoke to the positive intentions behind their rule breaking. These were not terrorists or protesters looking to pursue alternative agendas, but workers and citizens trying to get a closer look at this long-hyped event.

Taking this analogy to a different arena, what does the analogy above represent in terms of the economic boom in China, the rising middle class, and the dreams of success that fill the workers minds? In my opinion, their actions on Friday night speak loudly to the general behavior of the people who are looking to become a part of the bigger China event--its rise to be a second-to-none global superpower. In this event, the barriers take on a different form, and the pursuit of entrance to this event requires different actions, but the will is no less evident.

By the end of the night, I and hundreds of others found ourselves standing across the street from the bird's nest for the final fireworks display. Albeit, the 12 lanes of the fourth ring road made a quite uncrossable street, we had all gathered here for a view unimpeded by skyscrapers, and distance. We watched as volunteers for the event were bussed away, and security forces transported in to establish a new, closer, protection zone. Persistence and mass prevailed, like an ocean establishing a new shoreline, and when the show finally began our ocean had front row seats.

BA-BA-BA-Babies

It's August 8th, 2008.
Tonight at 8:08pm the Olympic Torch will be lit and the Games will begin,
and according to Chinese numerology,
the wealth and prosperity should begin to flow.

Already, across China, a rush for marriage certificate applications has swamped government offices, as thousands of couples wish to have their official documentation stamped with this luckiest day of the century.

Two days ago, 2008-08-08 was declared a national holiday giving millions of workers a day to celebrate.

Across the People's Republic of China today, approximately 56,000 babies will be born.

Born on the most prosperous day of the century.

In many ways it is for these babies, and the 20 million others born in 2008, that the work of this project may be most relevant for. It is the world that this generation is being born into that comes under examination. Analyzed for glimpses of the world being planned for their inheritance. Ironically, while this blog attempts to encompass much of the technologies that enliven web 2.0, social interactivity, media sharing, and other wonders of the Internet, it is doubtful that any of the babies born on this fine day will know what a blog is. Indeed, the Futures Images and examinations included here may seem completely false if and when the "ba-ba-ba-babies" and those of their generation decide to investigate the world they were born into. Knowledge of this possibility however, will not impede the work itself.

It is now only six hours until the Olympic flame torch is lit under the hazy skies of Beijing. What for us is an event the century, will for those children born today be the event of a lifetime. It is likely that this nation will not celebrate as loudly and wildly as it will tonight for a long time to come. After all, tonight's celebration represents the birth of the new China -- a global partner, and participant in the motto: "One World, One Dream."

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: The Four Futures Frameworks

Throughout our examination of the Futures Images of the 2008 Olympic Games we will refer to a categorization system as taught at the "Manoa School" of Futures Studies. This system can be employed to assist a researcher in imagining the a more general future to which an image or artifact belongs. After an artifact or image has been categorized, a researcher can begin to extrapolate the consequences of the future to which it belongs, and thusly place the artifact or image in a constructive context.

We introduce here the Four Futures of the Manoa School with a brief explanation of their components.

I. The Continued Growth Scenario

Perhaps, one of the most popular future scenarios, the Continued Growth Future is founded on the assumption that most current trends will remain stable. General upswings in economics, technologies, and social trends are extended along the length of the analysis and become the foundational drivers for theories relating to the future.

II. The Collapse Scenario

This grouping defines any number of futures in which current trends begin a decent. Many of these scenarios require a catalyst-- a factor or event that is inter-related with all components of the given future. At the on-set of the overall down-trend the catalyst serves to send critical elements of the future into a state of decay. Sometimes, in an effort to break from a downtrend, innovation will result in novel applications a technology.

III. The Controlled Growth Scenario

The Controlled Growth scenario is a state of the future in which many trends are artificially held in a static. This scenario normally involves an instutitute able to bolster trends that may
are in a downtrend, and limit trends which would otherwise be in growth. By utilizing leverage in all factors of the future in question, the institute and its policies are all-encompassing.

IV. Transformational Scenario

By its very definition, transformation involves the change from one state of being into something different. In regards to Futures Studies, this transformation results in a state so fundamentally different from the original that it must be examined under a new set of trend variables. As the new variables which will help define the transformational trend are not alway clear from the onset of a recognized transformational scenario, the original trend enters into an undefined state until these variables become clear.


It should be noted that many "Futures" are actually composites of elements from each of the outlined scenarios. Any future may represent a majority of elements from one scenario or another, but rarely will one future be comprised solely of elements from one possible scenario.
Therefore classification of a particular future, and any artifact thereof, should be considered only as a general definition, not as limiting factor.


More information concerning the Four Futures of the Manoa School can be found in the readings of the Manoa School Archives, here.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Images of the Futures

Images of the Futures

As the countdown to the Olympic opening ceremony reaches the two-day mark, I think it necessary to express some quick views and definitions of Futures Studies that will be referred to in the coming weeks. Prefacing this blog is a statement linking the concept of a future dream to output by the entity holding said dream. We use the word “entity” here because a group may hold a common dream or ideal, just as they can be personalized. Any portion of this dream can be considered an Image of the Futures.

An Image of the Futures is a powerful tool in discerning overall concepts that drive a preferred Future and its outcome. As archeologists are able to envision lifestyles of generations long past from a single artifact, a Futures researcher may extrapolate key factors of a future society from a single Image. The important distinction to make in drawing this analogy is while archeologists often have tangible elements from which to build their creative ideas of civilizations past, Futures researches often work in an opposite fashion. While the uncertainty that surrounds the futures possible is an excellent breeding ground for creative ideas, Futures Research spends a majority of its time establishing these ideas in tangible way for someone here in the present.

These tangible manifestations do not need to be picked up, dusted or extracted from a time-space anomaly. Futures researchers do not pull forth shards of strange polymers from a gap between dimensions, or deal in the translation of texts from our post-fathers. Often, Images of the Futures are not physical for the user at all, but rather exist on a plane that is “almost” real, that is believable. These Images come in many forms, of which we will discuss the most popular below.


Fiction:

Most are quick to point to the volumes of science fiction written about a time and place in the future, as Images of the Futures, and this is indeed a category rife with Images. However, new forms of media have given us new forms of fiction, and these too must now be included. Film adaptations of popular science fiction novels serve as a vehicle for the concretization of these Images, however the film media has also provided creative minds with new tools to invent and create future worlds. Some films, written and produced primarily for a cinema audience have new ways of constructing and presenting future worlds.

Related to film, but given a much shorter window of time through which to present a Futures Image, are commercials. Here within a 15-60 second time frame, entire future worlds come into existence laden with implicit futures drivers, are experienced, and then disappear. Though sometimes very minimalist in presentation, Futures Images from the advertising world are often high symbolic and contain assumptions about future worlds that go unnoticed.

Perhaps the most interesting form of storytelling to arise in the past 20 years, and one that has embraced a variety of Futures Images, we must also consider the videogame/computer entertainment genre. Many of these interactive storylines take place in future “Earths” or earth based societies, and involve future Earth creatures, human or otherwise. The level of interactivity offered through gaming also offers a different path for Future Images to concretize in the minds of users. By adding an interface to the fiction, and incorporating a physical component to the story experience, Images of the Future take on different character in comparison to one-way medias like film and print.


Immersive Environments:

This genre encompasses attempts to fuse the present time with one or more Future Images in a space constructed to excite all of the human senses. Through the creation of a backdrop, characters, props, and artifacts Immersive Environments of many twists, and futures are created. By enveloping the user in a Future World, and all of the Images that are held therein, the Immersive Environment provides an increasingly tangible experience.

Some great examples of this include the 1939-1940 World’s Fair entitled “The World of Tomorrow.” This event held a variety of opinions and visions of what Futures would bring humanity, and gave people lucky enough to go a glimpse at the cutting edge technologies, and creative ideas for the direction of those technologies. An excellent amateur website written by an attendee of “The Fair” is found here.

Walt Disney’s Tomorrowlands and EPCOT center are also examples of big budget Immersive Futures Environments. These installations are meant to represent a lifestyle of the future. The “inhabitants” take on stories, behaviors, and implements that fit the idealized society. A recently refurbished Tomorrowland was opened in Disneyland (CA, USA) this summer (2008) to a variety of reviews. Other Tomorrowlands in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Florida, and Paris (titled Discovery Land) are also open.

Additional work in Immersive Futures has been conducted by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies involving small-scale recreations of Hawaiian lifestyle 2050. These installations, created for the Hawaii 2050 conference, include Futures Images like “inhabitants”, artifacts, specialized character behaviors, and background soundtracks. Videos of these installations and other Immersive Futures from HRCFS can be found at the following links: Blue, Orange, Silver, Maroon.


Architecture and Installation Art

Additional Images come in the forms of Architecture (conceptual, and created) and installation artwork. Often, the statements by the designer concerning the form and function of such creations are telling in the interpretation of the latent Futures Images they encompass. . The relatively long-term nature of both Architecture, and Installation Art guides the designers and architects to create something that can stand both functionally and aesthetically for years, decades, sometimes longer.

Building and Public Space designs, for example, may include environmental technologies to buffer any resource footprint. They may include green roofing, solar paneling, ambient environment controls, and other systems to accomplish this task. Similarly, if the building is constructed to represent the long-term goals and ambitions of the firm contracting the new space, then architecture has a unique way of manifesting those stated ideals.

Installation art works in a similar fashion, by helping to define a space, and the way in which people interact with that space. This process is based upon ideals, and these art pieces stand as unique interpretations of ideals driving certain futures. Some installation art goes as far to encourage interactivity between the occupants of the space, and the artwork. Digital technologies are expanding degrees of interactivity all the time.


Images at the Olympics

Once the Olympic Games have begun, we will study Images of the Futures that are represented at and around the games. While most of the Games viewers will be watching via the television, we think it very important that an analysis of Images presented in this media takes place as well. September we will investigate the Images presented via television broadcast, while August is limited mainly to Images presented at the Olympic site.