Blink/China : “No Way.”
A popular read for many futures oriented individual was Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, wherein he examines the phenomena of systems on the brink of change. Recently, Gladwell published another book called Blink- and examination of “intuition” and split second decision and judgment making. While generally I espouse a more thorough examination before settling on a decision or judgment, I think it important to now state the most telling statement my brain spoke upon being in China for less than two days: “No Way.”
Honestly, I was not even in Beijing when this thought first crossed my mind, but rather in one of China’s older capitals, Xi’an, located west of Beijing in Shaanxi province. After a day of recovery from massive linguistic, currency, and altitude changes, I had this quiet thought staring down from a window onto Xi’an’s main street. At dawn the traffic begins to whir around the main turnabout at the city’s cultural epicenter, the Bell Tower, and for the next 18 hours the stream of traffic is heavy and continuous.
I thought perhaps that such a high concentration of automobiles was due only to the centrality of the locale, but as I looked back on the size of the roads and traffic even at midnight I knew this reaction was true.
I had no real deeply seeded preconceptions of what China was to look like, or be composed of. I had the vaguest idea that it was home to the world’s largest population, and was in the midst of an economic boom. However, these ideas had no placement in terms of real-world manifestations in people’s daily lives. No concept for how many cars were on the road, what urban infrastructures were in place, and what activities were involved. I knew that China was hungry, and growing fast, but what that looked like I had only blurry imaginations.
Staring down on the street that morning, and hearing “No Way” echo through my mind, was not the culmination of watching Bill and Ted’s excellent adventure too many times, or living in Hawaii for too long. Rather, it was an encompassing statement that echoed my opinion of the PRC’s development goals in relation to such issues as oil production and consumption, water availability, and the use of other natural resources. Yes, that is what I think about during my travels, because in my opinion the experience is had in order to be useful, and I intend to make use of my time in helping to plan for better systems of urban growth and resource management, for developing future worlds that we ALL prefer.
While I continue to research the various trends, numbers, and opinions concerning these issues, I reserve this blog entry for my “snap-judgment.” Having finally rested my body and mind to the point that “snapping” was in fact possible, the judgment came down from my cerebral cortex as the elegantly spoken : “No Way.”
Monday, August 4, 2008
August -- The Futures Present Opinion: As we get older...
As we get older…
As I wrote in July, China is facing an aging population due to the “One Child Policy” instigated in 1979. Coming from the United States, where population aging has caused an explosion of retirement communities, needs for medical care, and interest in healthy living and lifestyles, I was curious to know what the effects of population aging would be here in the PRC.
As I approached my work on my first day of employment here, I walked through a small urban green space: Hong Ling Jin park. Named after the thin red scarves worn by many of China’s children during the 70’s and 80’s, the park was teeming with retirees at 7am. A breadth of activity and exercise occupied the thousands of elderly in the park that morning. Exercise routines, baton twirling, the “feather hack” (Jian Zi), ballroom dance, singing, instrument playing, kite flying, calligraphy practice, chess, and simple strolling all occupy these retirees time. They are outdoors, involved in health promoting activities, social, and consistent. Everyday, I walk through the same crowds, and every night as I leave they are still there. They do take a pause for lunch and the afternoon rest time that is traditionally upheld here, and from 11am until 4pm, the park remains relatively unoccupied.
Here are people between the ages of 50 and 80, exercising daily, and doing their part to maintain this park that they collectively see as their responsibility. Unpaid workers walk the grounds, dusting off park benches, cleaning the chrome of the artistic installations, and weeding the flowerbeds. As in most parks in China, touching the grass is strictly forbidden, and there is a small amount of reprimanding any individuals who fail to notice the signs promoting grass awareness. The surrounding community has become the source of the parks draw, as opposed to other areas of Beijing where green space is preserved for historic merit and tourism potential.
It is my opinion that the park was not created with the intention of becoming a haven for the neighborhood’s elderly. Rather I think this park stands as an example of the societies will towards longevity, and the concept of personal health held by some of the city’s aging working class.
This park is situated in one of the city’s districts that has yet to see a complete overhaul in land-use and development. It is in the middle of transitioning between the low style houses to the haze-hidden skyscrapers. Outside of my office building the rubble from a Hutong area sits covered by tarps, waiting for the construction limitations to end and the re-commencement of the building of another 6-lane through-street. Within the year, it is likely that the face of the neighborhood will have seen a dramatic alteration, as the wide avenue will bring with it new store fronts, high-end living communities, a relocation of many residents.
So, while median income in the area remains relatively low, Hong Ling Jin park stands as testament to the “people’s” solution to aging. Health and longevity can be better maintained through regular exercise, social interaction, and cultivation of skills, and public areas provide the space necessary for these activities. Is it therefore possible to say that alongside the forecasted aging of China’s population, we will see an accompanying trend in the development of urban green space, where these new retirees can go for recreation?
Such a trend would certainly coincide with the stated direction of China’s development, a topic we will cover in more depth during August.
As I wrote in July, China is facing an aging population due to the “One Child Policy” instigated in 1979. Coming from the United States, where population aging has caused an explosion of retirement communities, needs for medical care, and interest in healthy living and lifestyles, I was curious to know what the effects of population aging would be here in the PRC.
As I approached my work on my first day of employment here, I walked through a small urban green space: Hong Ling Jin park. Named after the thin red scarves worn by many of China’s children during the 70’s and 80’s, the park was teeming with retirees at 7am. A breadth of activity and exercise occupied the thousands of elderly in the park that morning. Exercise routines, baton twirling, the “feather hack” (Jian Zi), ballroom dance, singing, instrument playing, kite flying, calligraphy practice, chess, and simple strolling all occupy these retirees time. They are outdoors, involved in health promoting activities, social, and consistent. Everyday, I walk through the same crowds, and every night as I leave they are still there. They do take a pause for lunch and the afternoon rest time that is traditionally upheld here, and from 11am until 4pm, the park remains relatively unoccupied.
Here are people between the ages of 50 and 80, exercising daily, and doing their part to maintain this park that they collectively see as their responsibility. Unpaid workers walk the grounds, dusting off park benches, cleaning the chrome of the artistic installations, and weeding the flowerbeds. As in most parks in China, touching the grass is strictly forbidden, and there is a small amount of reprimanding any individuals who fail to notice the signs promoting grass awareness. The surrounding community has become the source of the parks draw, as opposed to other areas of Beijing where green space is preserved for historic merit and tourism potential.
It is my opinion that the park was not created with the intention of becoming a haven for the neighborhood’s elderly. Rather I think this park stands as an example of the societies will towards longevity, and the concept of personal health held by some of the city’s aging working class.
This park is situated in one of the city’s districts that has yet to see a complete overhaul in land-use and development. It is in the middle of transitioning between the low style houses to the haze-hidden skyscrapers. Outside of my office building the rubble from a Hutong area sits covered by tarps, waiting for the construction limitations to end and the re-commencement of the building of another 6-lane through-street. Within the year, it is likely that the face of the neighborhood will have seen a dramatic alteration, as the wide avenue will bring with it new store fronts, high-end living communities, a relocation of many residents.
So, while median income in the area remains relatively low, Hong Ling Jin park stands as testament to the “people’s” solution to aging. Health and longevity can be better maintained through regular exercise, social interaction, and cultivation of skills, and public areas provide the space necessary for these activities. Is it therefore possible to say that alongside the forecasted aging of China’s population, we will see an accompanying trend in the development of urban green space, where these new retirees can go for recreation?
Such a trend would certainly coincide with the stated direction of China’s development, a topic we will cover in more depth during August.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
August -- The Futures Present Opinion: How's it look right now?
How about the future?
It seems necessary to write an entry on how the concept of the future is viewed here in China. While a comprehensive analysis of the opinions 1.3 billion people can hold about the future seems well beyond the scope of this project, or any project to date, I will be able to provide a couple of examples of opinion I have gathered during my stay here. Along with these examples I will add some opinion as to what these views point towards in regards to a big picture view.
My first discussion here regarding the idea of a long term future came during a meal a friend of mine, named, for anonymity's sake The Grouch. Mr. Grouch is Chinese born, from a well to do family in the health industry. He has a sibling, an impressive Chinese education, and numerous years living abroad in the south pacific as an intern. His spoken English is of a high level and he is able to communicate well on a theoretical level. He loves some parts of his nation, but is by no means a hardened nationalist. He desires to travel more, gain experiences, and understand the world.
During our conversation he had these things to say concerning China, development, future trends, and more.
As we spoke about China, he was initially very proud of how far the nation had come. He spoke of the western ideal of progress, and believed that in many ways China was working in that direction. “We [China] only need time, and we will build our society into one like America. We got a late start, but we know that we want to develop into a country like that.”
As a polite skeptic, I thought that perhaps much of this sentiment was aimed at making our friendship more concrete, as it is said often: “Flattery will get you everywhere.” A part of myself believed that he was drawing a comparison between the U.S. and China’s hopes to make me feel liked. If that was the case, I decided to go with this notion, and we continued to discuss how China’s development looked from his perspective. He went on to explain in this vein, that he believed that the United States had held torch of progress for too long, had worked its people to a state of tiredness, and that out of thankfulness to this movement, China was now ready to bear the load and title of “world leader.”
I have been astonished since arriving in this nation to see a great many things. The amount, variety, and rate of architectural development has been one of the biggest surprises. I asked him some questions in regards to the resources, labor, and cost of expanding so fast. As these things were not a specific specialty for either of us, we could only exchange impressions and opinions, and this turned out to be very valuable. As we continued to discuss the infrastructure of Beijing, and the population of workers that is responsible for the building of it, he mentioned his view of China’s strategy concerning development.
“We are aware of the inequalities. The poor in the west, and in the country. We just know that if we are able to build up the wealth, first in the east, then we will be able to spread that money later to the west. We already have a bullet train to Tibet,” he said. I wondered as he related his opinion of China’s strategy, whether or not he believed it would be effective, and asked him how such wealth would be dispersed. He replied by again saying that time would tell, but that the grand strategy was to first make the east rich, then concentrate on western development. As I have gone on to research this project I have realized that this is, in fact, the strategy being employed by the central government. Mr. Grouch, knowingly or unknowingly, was outlining for me the working model of China’s development plan.
The last memorable thing he mentioned came during a short discussion of environmental factors, impacting this nation’s growth potential. He brought up most of the key discussions that tend to follow environmental concerns in China: Water, Air, Emissions. He even brought up Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth, which has driven much of my thought concerning global environmental factors, but not a film I would have thought had made its way to China. I was surprised to hear him say, that his awareness of the problem led him to only one conclusion: that some cities would be lost to the ocean.
In these comments I heard two aspects of futures conceptual thinking coming through. Firstly, The idea that as long as things continued, then China would be able to provide the western ideal of a “good life” for all of its citizens. That with enough time, China would be able to escape the criticisms for human rights, social inequality, and under-development. A long term conceptual model was certainly in place, and it carried hope, and passion.
However, the second echo of futures thought was that of inevitability. For Mr. Grouch to so easily dismiss the loss of metropolitan areas as a inescapable consequence, I wondered just how resolute is the Chinese mindset toward achieving its goals. If the loss of coastal cities, resulting in the relocation of millions, could be dismissed by a youthful man, then what other “inescapable” consequences had been conceded in the minds of the nations youth—those meant to carry the dream into the middle of the 21st century?
A second interchange regarding Chinese conceptions of the future was brief but poignant. As I walked with an excellent bilingual friend of mine, I asked what she thought brought the workers to Beijing. She pointedly said, “let’s ask!” and with that trotted across the street towards a nearby construction site.
As we passed by the living quarters she asked a man poised by the entrance why he had come to Beijing. Surprisingly he responded that he came for “the future.” He did not mean the future of Beijing, or of China, or the building he had spent the last 6 hours working on. He meant the future of his family, and especially that of his children. It is perhaps the strongest of sentiments in this nation: the children should have more and better than the older generations.
This may be a tell tale thought process that has driven, and will continue to drive China’s development. I am curious to know more from other random encounters to more deftly confirm this opinion, but for now it should be considered that this city is home to millions of migrant workers. Workers who have little in terms of shelter or disposable income, but who still work long hard hours, for the ideal of the world the children of China will come to inherit.
As this blog progress we will uncover more mindsets prevalent in conceptualizing the possibilities of the future, and with them we can further unravel the ideals driving China towards the futures.
It seems necessary to write an entry on how the concept of the future is viewed here in China. While a comprehensive analysis of the opinions 1.3 billion people can hold about the future seems well beyond the scope of this project, or any project to date, I will be able to provide a couple of examples of opinion I have gathered during my stay here. Along with these examples I will add some opinion as to what these views point towards in regards to a big picture view.
My first discussion here regarding the idea of a long term future came during a meal a friend of mine, named, for anonymity's sake The Grouch. Mr. Grouch is Chinese born, from a well to do family in the health industry. He has a sibling, an impressive Chinese education, and numerous years living abroad in the south pacific as an intern. His spoken English is of a high level and he is able to communicate well on a theoretical level. He loves some parts of his nation, but is by no means a hardened nationalist. He desires to travel more, gain experiences, and understand the world.
During our conversation he had these things to say concerning China, development, future trends, and more.
As we spoke about China, he was initially very proud of how far the nation had come. He spoke of the western ideal of progress, and believed that in many ways China was working in that direction. “We [China] only need time, and we will build our society into one like America. We got a late start, but we know that we want to develop into a country like that.”
As a polite skeptic, I thought that perhaps much of this sentiment was aimed at making our friendship more concrete, as it is said often: “Flattery will get you everywhere.” A part of myself believed that he was drawing a comparison between the U.S. and China’s hopes to make me feel liked. If that was the case, I decided to go with this notion, and we continued to discuss how China’s development looked from his perspective. He went on to explain in this vein, that he believed that the United States had held torch of progress for too long, had worked its people to a state of tiredness, and that out of thankfulness to this movement, China was now ready to bear the load and title of “world leader.”
I have been astonished since arriving in this nation to see a great many things. The amount, variety, and rate of architectural development has been one of the biggest surprises. I asked him some questions in regards to the resources, labor, and cost of expanding so fast. As these things were not a specific specialty for either of us, we could only exchange impressions and opinions, and this turned out to be very valuable. As we continued to discuss the infrastructure of Beijing, and the population of workers that is responsible for the building of it, he mentioned his view of China’s strategy concerning development.
“We are aware of the inequalities. The poor in the west, and in the country. We just know that if we are able to build up the wealth, first in the east, then we will be able to spread that money later to the west. We already have a bullet train to Tibet,” he said. I wondered as he related his opinion of China’s strategy, whether or not he believed it would be effective, and asked him how such wealth would be dispersed. He replied by again saying that time would tell, but that the grand strategy was to first make the east rich, then concentrate on western development. As I have gone on to research this project I have realized that this is, in fact, the strategy being employed by the central government. Mr. Grouch, knowingly or unknowingly, was outlining for me the working model of China’s development plan.
The last memorable thing he mentioned came during a short discussion of environmental factors, impacting this nation’s growth potential. He brought up most of the key discussions that tend to follow environmental concerns in China: Water, Air, Emissions. He even brought up Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth, which has driven much of my thought concerning global environmental factors, but not a film I would have thought had made its way to China. I was surprised to hear him say, that his awareness of the problem led him to only one conclusion: that some cities would be lost to the ocean.
In these comments I heard two aspects of futures conceptual thinking coming through. Firstly, The idea that as long as things continued, then China would be able to provide the western ideal of a “good life” for all of its citizens. That with enough time, China would be able to escape the criticisms for human rights, social inequality, and under-development. A long term conceptual model was certainly in place, and it carried hope, and passion.
However, the second echo of futures thought was that of inevitability. For Mr. Grouch to so easily dismiss the loss of metropolitan areas as a inescapable consequence, I wondered just how resolute is the Chinese mindset toward achieving its goals. If the loss of coastal cities, resulting in the relocation of millions, could be dismissed by a youthful man, then what other “inescapable” consequences had been conceded in the minds of the nations youth—those meant to carry the dream into the middle of the 21st century?
A second interchange regarding Chinese conceptions of the future was brief but poignant. As I walked with an excellent bilingual friend of mine, I asked what she thought brought the workers to Beijing. She pointedly said, “let’s ask!” and with that trotted across the street towards a nearby construction site.
As we passed by the living quarters she asked a man poised by the entrance why he had come to Beijing. Surprisingly he responded that he came for “the future.” He did not mean the future of Beijing, or of China, or the building he had spent the last 6 hours working on. He meant the future of his family, and especially that of his children. It is perhaps the strongest of sentiments in this nation: the children should have more and better than the older generations.
This may be a tell tale thought process that has driven, and will continue to drive China’s development. I am curious to know more from other random encounters to more deftly confirm this opinion, but for now it should be considered that this city is home to millions of migrant workers. Workers who have little in terms of shelter or disposable income, but who still work long hard hours, for the ideal of the world the children of China will come to inherit.
As this blog progress we will uncover more mindsets prevalent in conceptualizing the possibilities of the future, and with them we can further unravel the ideals driving China towards the futures.
August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Blue Skies and Blue Screens
Blue Skies, Blue Screens
If there is one global sound that is more recognized than wind blowing, rain falling, or cars honking it is most likely the start-up jingle of any windows machine. This sound, generally accompanied by a blue screen, has been echoing in offices and homes with increasing rapidity, ushering a new generation of computer users into the digital realm.
Yesterday, I walked down to JianGuanCun, the self proclaimed Silicon Valley of Beijing. In the hands of hundreds of happy customers, computing power walked out the doors, on to the streets, and home to join the information super highway. It is a ritual that is repeated daily, in this district, as China, now the global leader in internet users, progresses.
But other questions revolve around this surge in netizens within the PRC.
Where do these new users go online?
What do they do there?
What services will evolve as new users voice their needs, and China’s growing software industry rises up to meet them?
Where will they be going in 10, 20, or even 30 years down the road?
Will the million of Chinese that have web access in 2038 still be sitting in their homes or the prevalent internet cafes?
Today, as I sit in my apartment and ask these questions to a digital page, I can see from my window the Olympic torch building for the first time in months. After a round of induced rains that began a month ago, the air has cleared enough for me to see the building’s form and its megalithic screen that shines down on the site of the Olympic games. It is the first time that I have been able to recognize it through the haze of Beijing’s skies. Indeed, today, those skies are blue, and speckled with clouds, as the government continues to push towards the perfect beginning for the perfect Olympiad. But just 4 days ago, the smog and haze were so thick, that building less than half a kilometer away were shrouded from sight, and already that temporary blue begins to fade along the horizon.
This city is not unique in China, but rather has garnered the attention of the world media as the Olympic games approach. Those who have lived in China for far longer, and in more places would be, perhaps, a more trustworthy source of information concerning air quality in China’s metropolis centers, but therein lies the problem.
While China touts the world’s largest Internet population, those voices currently online are not always those most effected by the poor air conditions of the city. Most computer users sit in the comfortable and air filtered recesses of their home, offices, or cafes. Many travel to digital worlds for recreation, or chat with friends on popular QQ, or MSN messenger. Increasingly they make purchases and trade online. Do they have any interest in having blue skies grace Beijing daily? While the blue of the computer, and the blue of the skies are similar in shade, which shall have the greatest draw for new China?
If there is one global sound that is more recognized than wind blowing, rain falling, or cars honking it is most likely the start-up jingle of any windows machine. This sound, generally accompanied by a blue screen, has been echoing in offices and homes with increasing rapidity, ushering a new generation of computer users into the digital realm.
Yesterday, I walked down to JianGuanCun, the self proclaimed Silicon Valley of Beijing. In the hands of hundreds of happy customers, computing power walked out the doors, on to the streets, and home to join the information super highway. It is a ritual that is repeated daily, in this district, as China, now the global leader in internet users, progresses.
But other questions revolve around this surge in netizens within the PRC.
Where do these new users go online?
What do they do there?
What services will evolve as new users voice their needs, and China’s growing software industry rises up to meet them?
Where will they be going in 10, 20, or even 30 years down the road?
Will the million of Chinese that have web access in 2038 still be sitting in their homes or the prevalent internet cafes?
Today, as I sit in my apartment and ask these questions to a digital page, I can see from my window the Olympic torch building for the first time in months. After a round of induced rains that began a month ago, the air has cleared enough for me to see the building’s form and its megalithic screen that shines down on the site of the Olympic games. It is the first time that I have been able to recognize it through the haze of Beijing’s skies. Indeed, today, those skies are blue, and speckled with clouds, as the government continues to push towards the perfect beginning for the perfect Olympiad. But just 4 days ago, the smog and haze were so thick, that building less than half a kilometer away were shrouded from sight, and already that temporary blue begins to fade along the horizon.
This city is not unique in China, but rather has garnered the attention of the world media as the Olympic games approach. Those who have lived in China for far longer, and in more places would be, perhaps, a more trustworthy source of information concerning air quality in China’s metropolis centers, but therein lies the problem.
While China touts the world’s largest Internet population, those voices currently online are not always those most effected by the poor air conditions of the city. Most computer users sit in the comfortable and air filtered recesses of their home, offices, or cafes. Many travel to digital worlds for recreation, or chat with friends on popular QQ, or MSN messenger. Increasingly they make purchases and trade online. Do they have any interest in having blue skies grace Beijing daily? While the blue of the computer, and the blue of the skies are similar in shade, which shall have the greatest draw for new China?
Friday, August 1, 2008
August -- The Futures Present Opinion
Now that August has arrived the blog will begin to change gears. The entire process of laying out the Macro-history of China in June, and a broad current day trend analysis in July, was to prepare the reader for an analysis of the Futures represented at the Olympic games. The games are now one week away, and many things in Beijing have begun to change in preparation for the event.
As promised we will explore some of the cultural trends in China at the moment, but we will do so from an American-in-Beijing perspective. In leading up to the long-awaited 8/8/2008 opening ceremony, we will examine different lifestyles here in the capital city and the cultures that are represented. From the lifestyles of the young, newly-rich, and prosperous to the stories of of migrant workers in the midst of urban adaptation, Beijing cultivates the "new" China and all that encompasses.
It is the author's hope that some of this huge and diverse picture can be gleaned in the days that follow. Not only in the context of the current day, but in regards also to the futures of this city, nation, and planet. Welcome to the dog days of summer, in the year of the rat, from the land of the Dragon! We are ready! ;)
As promised we will explore some of the cultural trends in China at the moment, but we will do so from an American-in-Beijing perspective. In leading up to the long-awaited 8/8/2008 opening ceremony, we will examine different lifestyles here in the capital city and the cultures that are represented. From the lifestyles of the young, newly-rich, and prosperous to the stories of of migrant workers in the midst of urban adaptation, Beijing cultivates the "new" China and all that encompasses.
It is the author's hope that some of this huge and diverse picture can be gleaned in the days that follow. Not only in the context of the current day, but in regards also to the futures of this city, nation, and planet. Welcome to the dog days of summer, in the year of the rat, from the land of the Dragon! We are ready! ;)
China Trend Analysis IV: Economic Trends, E-commerce
Part III: E-Commerce in China
As of the posting of this message the total number of Internet users in the People’s Republic of China was totaled at 253 million. This number was reached after a growth of 90% from the previous year, and put the number of Internet users in China as largest in the world.
The short history of China’s Internet usage began in 1995 when China first came “online.” In mid-1995 ChinaNET, a commercial service provider in China, opened up access to the Internet to private individuals, and in the first month about 900 accounts were opened. By the end of 1998 there were nearly one-and-a-quarter million subscribers across four networks, and projected growth was that the number would approach 2.7 million in 2000. In actuality by 2000 China's Internet user population was estimated between 17 and 20 million. By the end of 2005 the Internet population had grown to over 110 million users, and continued rate of growth brings us to the current day number quoted above. Analysts examining this growth are now expecting China’s Internet population to grow above 490 million by the year 2012.
However, to date the Internet has been a dormant economic boom for the PRC. A boom that is starting to stir. In 2000 e-commerce took in sales of approximately $62 million (USD). By 2006, that number had grown to $4.3 billion. In 2007, a total of $8.25 billion was reached, and the Research Institute Data Center of China Internet reports that in the first half of 2008 over $37.5 billion has been spent.
China’s surging online population, coupled with the rapid rise of on-line consumer confidence may make e-commerce in China a leading factor in the future of its economy.
As of the posting of this message the total number of Internet users in the People’s Republic of China was totaled at 253 million. This number was reached after a growth of 90% from the previous year, and put the number of Internet users in China as largest in the world.
The short history of China’s Internet usage began in 1995 when China first came “online.” In mid-1995 ChinaNET, a commercial service provider in China, opened up access to the Internet to private individuals, and in the first month about 900 accounts were opened. By the end of 1998 there were nearly one-and-a-quarter million subscribers across four networks, and projected growth was that the number would approach 2.7 million in 2000. In actuality by 2000 China's Internet user population was estimated between 17 and 20 million. By the end of 2005 the Internet population had grown to over 110 million users, and continued rate of growth brings us to the current day number quoted above. Analysts examining this growth are now expecting China’s Internet population to grow above 490 million by the year 2012.
However, to date the Internet has been a dormant economic boom for the PRC. A boom that is starting to stir. In 2000 e-commerce took in sales of approximately $62 million (USD). By 2006, that number had grown to $4.3 billion. In 2007, a total of $8.25 billion was reached, and the Research Institute Data Center of China Internet reports that in the first half of 2008 over $37.5 billion has been spent.
China’s surging online population, coupled with the rapid rise of on-line consumer confidence may make e-commerce in China a leading factor in the future of its economy.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
China Trend Analysis IV: Economic Trends, Foreign Investment
Part II: Foreign Investment
Foreign Investment has given China’s economy much of the monetary and intellectual capital to sustain such high levels of growth. As an integral part of Deng Xiaopeng’s economic reform package, enticing foreign investment through the establishment of SEZs and other policy reforms has played major role in each of the Five-Year plans upon which Chinese economic planners base their work.
Special Economic Zones provide bubbles of relaxed taxation, and fewer bureaucratic hurdles for investors. As of 2008 there were over 2000 SEZs in China, and though they are different in their objectives and thus incentives, they constitute many of the wealthiest areas of mainland China.
In 2005 the total amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached over 70 billion USD, and included international companies like Dell, GM, GE, Boeing, and Cargill. As of the first quarter of 2008, the total amount of FDI in China had already eclipsed 35 billion USD, perhaps indicating a continuing growing trend. However, also in 2005, China released a revised edition of its “Encouraged Industry Catalogue,” which may have changed FDI into China.
The Encouraged Industry Catalogue divides various industries into distinct categories to direct the flow of investment: “encouraged,” “restricted,” and “to-be-eliminated.” These categories are relatively self-explanatory in terms of how foreign Many new industries, many of which are pollution heavy, were added to the “to-be-eliminated” category in China’s policy efforts to encourage “Quality-not-Quantity.” Though speculation still abounds as to the long-term effects of this policy move in regards to FDI, as of the publishing of this post, FDI continues to grow in the PRC.
Of the more than 50 billion USD that have flowed into the PRC in the first half of 2008, a majority source of this income has been from established companies from the Forbes 500 list. There is much speculation concerning this influx of monies in connection with a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan, an move that could have very long term impacts on the Chinese economy.
Another remarkable trend concerning Foreign Direct Investment is also growing – investment by the People’s Republic of China in other developing nations across the globe. It was reported by the People’s Daily in 2007 that the total amount of Chinese Foreign Investment in other countries had exceeded 76 Billion USD in total. It also marked the total amount of outgoing FDI as over $16 billion in 2006 alone, having grown by nearly 35 % from 2005. This money is spread out to some 160 nations, but there is particular investment in Africa, South America, and other parts of Asia.
Investment by China is being spurred by a number of factors, including the continued growth in demand for natural resources, concerns about over-population, and profiteering by China’s industrial leaders. As of 2006, the PRC was investing an approximate $8 billion USD in Latin America. President Hu Jintao publicly announced China’s plan to invest over $100 billion in the region over the next decade, including $20 in Argentina’s infrastructure.
China’s interest in Africa recently garnered the attention of the New York Times with this article. The growing amount of Chinese workers, factories, and investments in Africa have gained the attention of a number of western powers, partly due to the scope of the PRC’s strategy, partly from the practices that have been employed. Some analysts have proposed that China plans to relocate over 300 million people to the continent, and already China utilizes over 70% of Africa’s available resources. The Chinese are being criticized for arms sales, supporting corrupted regimes, and the destruction of local economies.
Foreign Investment has given China’s economy much of the monetary and intellectual capital to sustain such high levels of growth. As an integral part of Deng Xiaopeng’s economic reform package, enticing foreign investment through the establishment of SEZs and other policy reforms has played major role in each of the Five-Year plans upon which Chinese economic planners base their work.
Special Economic Zones provide bubbles of relaxed taxation, and fewer bureaucratic hurdles for investors. As of 2008 there were over 2000 SEZs in China, and though they are different in their objectives and thus incentives, they constitute many of the wealthiest areas of mainland China.
In 2005 the total amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached over 70 billion USD, and included international companies like Dell, GM, GE, Boeing, and Cargill. As of the first quarter of 2008, the total amount of FDI in China had already eclipsed 35 billion USD, perhaps indicating a continuing growing trend. However, also in 2005, China released a revised edition of its “Encouraged Industry Catalogue,” which may have changed FDI into China.
The Encouraged Industry Catalogue divides various industries into distinct categories to direct the flow of investment: “encouraged,” “restricted,” and “to-be-eliminated.” These categories are relatively self-explanatory in terms of how foreign Many new industries, many of which are pollution heavy, were added to the “to-be-eliminated” category in China’s policy efforts to encourage “Quality-not-Quantity.” Though speculation still abounds as to the long-term effects of this policy move in regards to FDI, as of the publishing of this post, FDI continues to grow in the PRC.
Of the more than 50 billion USD that have flowed into the PRC in the first half of 2008, a majority source of this income has been from established companies from the Forbes 500 list. There is much speculation concerning this influx of monies in connection with a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan, an move that could have very long term impacts on the Chinese economy.
Another remarkable trend concerning Foreign Direct Investment is also growing – investment by the People’s Republic of China in other developing nations across the globe. It was reported by the People’s Daily in 2007 that the total amount of Chinese Foreign Investment in other countries had exceeded 76 Billion USD in total. It also marked the total amount of outgoing FDI as over $16 billion in 2006 alone, having grown by nearly 35 % from 2005. This money is spread out to some 160 nations, but there is particular investment in Africa, South America, and other parts of Asia.
Investment by China is being spurred by a number of factors, including the continued growth in demand for natural resources, concerns about over-population, and profiteering by China’s industrial leaders. As of 2006, the PRC was investing an approximate $8 billion USD in Latin America. President Hu Jintao publicly announced China’s plan to invest over $100 billion in the region over the next decade, including $20 in Argentina’s infrastructure.
China’s interest in Africa recently garnered the attention of the New York Times with this article. The growing amount of Chinese workers, factories, and investments in Africa have gained the attention of a number of western powers, partly due to the scope of the PRC’s strategy, partly from the practices that have been employed. Some analysts have proposed that China plans to relocate over 300 million people to the continent, and already China utilizes over 70% of Africa’s available resources. The Chinese are being criticized for arms sales, supporting corrupted regimes, and the destruction of local economies.
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