Legal Disclaimer

This blog wishes it be known that the opinions presented herein are the sole responsibility of the author, and do not represent the feelings, opinions, ideas, or conclusions of any affiliated organization or group. Additionally, the author has chosen to keep the blog confidential during the Olympic Games 2008, as the reaction of the PRC towards foreign opinion remains ungauged. Thanks for reading.
Beijingfuturesdreams, 2008

Saturday, June 28, 2008

June -- History and Futures

The first stage in a Futures Workshop is a general discussion of the History surrounding the entity under review. This entity could be an industry, organization, or position. Futures Studies is intended to be applicable across a wide variety of themes, beginning with a structurally flexible framework that can be molded to fit the needs of the study.

The Beijing 2008: One World, One Dream. Whose? blog site is intended to be such a study, focused on analyzing the various visions of the future that surface at the XXIX Olympiad. In order to properly frame much of this analysis, an overview of the context in which this analysis takes place is necessary.

In July, this blog will embark upon a structured analysis of the current trends within the People's Republic of China. During this month we will focus our attention on economic, political, social, technological, and theoretical trends currently at hand in the PRC. However, in order to properly understand how these trends have emerged, and how they can be interpreted, a brief glance at China's rich 5000 year history is necessary. The month of June is intended to be just that: A 30-day recap of the Chinese history.

Striving for objectivity, all comments, suggestions, or criticism in these efforts, are welcome, and it is hoped that you continue to read throughout July and August for another view of the One Dream Games, the People's Republic of China, and our collective Futures.


Thanks!!!!

Friday, June 27, 2008

Post-Mao in the PRC (People's Republic of China)


Deng Xiaoping


Mao's death tempered the cult of personality that enveloped the man, and the Communist Party of China (CPC) for nearly 30 years. When the political dust had finally settled in 1979, one of Mao's strongest rivals, Deng Xiaoping, had consolidated a powerful cadre intent on the nurturing of a modern China to blossom. Economic reform and an outreach to the international community are widely regarded as the legacy that Deng Xiaoping has left on the People's Republic of China (PRC).

The economic reform platform promoted by Deng was based on four key sectors: Agriculture, Industry, Science and Technology, and the Military. By reforming the economy as a "socialist capitalist economy," a newly structured series of state-owned enterprises, often built from the local level upwards, was made possible. By encouraging local arms of the government to act in their own best interest and share profitable plans with the nation at large, economic development first built a strong foundation on which to reach upwards.

Deng Xiaopeng was also very active in building positive relations with the international community. This new policy of openness, coupled with the Special Economic Zones (SEZs), channeled vast amounts of foreign investment into China's developing economy. New trade partnerships, and a policy of increasing transparency helped to establish China on the world stage. Additionally, he helped to negotiate the peaceful return of Hong Kong and Macau from foreign control.

Jiang Zemin

Beginning in 1990, Jiang Zemin served in the highest positions of the Chinese government. During his tenures as President of the People's Republic of China, the General Secretary for the CPC, and Chair of the CPC and PRC Military Commissions, Jiang was oversaw the continued implementation of economic reforms cross the nation.

Though critics are divided in addressing Jiang's personal contributions to Chinese policy and development, the nation was changing rapidly due to the reforms in place. Some say that Jiang's largest contribution to China was stability and adherence to the measures implemented by Deng Xiaoping and his economic reform specialists. Maintaining an average growth rate of 8%, the economy was able to weather even the Asian Financial crisis (ca. 1997), and exceed many global expectations.

Other analysts decree that while China's economic growth was continued during this time period, Jiang and his fellow party members may have failed to address some of the imbalances that grew out of Deng policy. It is further asserted that some of these initial discrepancies have since grown to be major schisms in the Chinese social fabric, and could undermine the developing nation in the future. Economic disparity between the Eastern seaboard, and western provinces, the growing gap between rich and poor segments of society, political corruption, and environmental disregard are now coming under discussion within the CPC and state policy makers. It has yet to be seen what the newest leadership will do to address these problems.

Hu Jintao

Beginning in 2003, the CPC and the PRC began another power transition at its highest levels. Jiang, peacefully stepping out of the Presidency and General Secretary of the CPC, promoted Hu Jintao as the new President of the PRC, and leader of the Communist Party. Some believe that Jiang's intention has been to divert media attention away from himself as social problems come to light within the PRC.

Hu Jintao was able to consolidate the three main power positions of the PRC as of this year; President of the state, General Secretary of the Party, and Chairman of the CPC Military Commission. He is now regarded as the premier political director for the PRC, and speculation abounds concerning the uncertainty still enshrouding China.

Mao's China

After fighting for and against the Kuomintang in the 1930’s and 1940’s Mao and the CPC army finally gained control of the Chinese government in 1949 and began the current regime of the People’s Republic of China. From 1949 until his death in 1976, Mao sat atop the Chinese government, issuing edicts, giving speeches, and bringing about a new vision for the Chinese land, people, and culture.


Though much of his legacy has come under fierce debate by Eastern and Western historians alike, this historical recap will attempt to shy away from these debates as much as possible…for now.


Various political highlights speckle Mao’s tenure as leader of Communist China. Here we will briefly list them and the intentions that drove them. We will also, VERY briefly discuss the impacts of each.


1) The Great Leap Forward

Though this policy implementation is highly regarded as a failure in many regards, it foundation and repercussions should be understood.

Following the first of the five-year plans issued to bring the whole of China into a Communist social order similar to those of the Soviet Union, "The Leap" was intended to develop China's agricultural and industrial sectors in tandem. Collectivization in the rural areas into mega communes consisting of thousands of households, and the redistribution and sometimes complete abolition of privately held land set the scene for such a bold move.

The state called for a doubling of steel production in one year, and took many of the rural agricultural workers from their duties in the fields to build the backyard steel industry. 1958's disastrous crop output was followed by a 3-4 year famine, and for sources for the PRC were very limited. Urban demand for available food channeled available resources away from the rural areas, and resulted in a mass starvation. Resulting starvation led to death tolls that are estimated between 14-40 million.

To further underline the great failure of this project, much of the produced steel was of a low grade and unfit for real industrial growth.

The resulting negative impression of Communism and Mao's leadership abilities led to his withdrawal from the position of State Chairman of the PRC, and the public eye. However, he maintained his position of Chairman of the CPC, and continued to influence the face and direction of the Chinese political topology.

2) The 100 Flowers Campaign

This brief period of encouraged open criticism and opposition to official state policy was initially lauded by the intellectual and peasant classes. However, some consider this campaign as a strategic enticement by Mao and the CPC to uncover center of dissent and possible unrest. Many critics who voiced their discontent found themselves stripped of political rank, and often dispersed to the countryside or executed. It ran concurrent to the Great Leap Forward.

3) The Cultural Revolution

This was Mao's final campaign as the voice of Communism, and the reformation of Chinese society. Officially this set of reforms lasted only from 1966 until 1969, however, many Chinese and Western analysts alike state that the policies and movements propagated by the early stages of the Cultural Revolution would remain intact and widely powerful until the Chairman's death.

Drawing strength from the iconic status that he had culminated during the early part of his political and military career, Mao began to orchestrate a purging of Chinese culture aimed at political ideals and entities that he termed backwards and detrimental. Through the CPC he was able to form a nation-wide organization known as the Red Guard to carry through this final political aims.

The Red Guard, following the edicts and statements of Mao Zedong, violently moved through the intellectual, political, and business sectors, eliminating any voices opposed to Mao's Communist platform. Millions of member strong, The Red Guard stood outside the reach of state police, and, it is argued, outside of the control of anyone save Mao.

Through 1976, The Cultural Revolution effectively silenced all opposition to the CPC, and closely monitored all aspects of culture for anti-communist content. This included the performing arts, literature, mass-media, academia, and party approved documents. These policing efforts were not limited to domestically developed content, but were (and many argue still are) pointed at information coming into the PRC.


Repercussions of the above

The effects of Mao's tenure as State Chair and Chairman of the CPC are still widely felt in much of Chinese society. The ideals he promoted, and restriction of opposing viewpoints are still widely held as positive aspects of China's modern face. The effective dissembly of all political factions opposed to the CPC has left the government in a political monopoly, the effects of which are under heated critical review even today. The deaths of millions, even in a land of billions, still leave penetrating scars.

Positive effects of the Chairman's implementation of policy include national healthcare programs, free education, and a supple social struture that was ready for the various changes that have occured in the past 30 years. High literacy, lower poverty, and an invigorated social spectrum of 1.3 billion people remain testaments to Mao's "Revolutionary" vision.

Finally, the eyes of Mao still watch over the entrance to the forbidden city in the heart of China's political heart.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Warlords, The 2nd Sino-Japanese War, and the rise of the CPC

Warlords, The Second Sino-Japanese War


From 1916 to1936 a number of different power centers struggled with one another over the remnants of the briefly lived Republic of China. The Kuomintang (KMT), upholding the nationalism of it charter, held power in much of the South, while the North Beiyuan government was consumed by internal strife.


The Treaty of Versailles, following World War I, served as an ignition point for the growing dissent within the working classes, students, and small business owners. Dissatisfaction with the Allied Forces treatment of China during wartime reparations, led to a surge in cultural re-evaluation, and created the small but popular Communist Party of China (CPC).
The CCP and the KMT joined forces to attack northwards both militarily and politically. Known as the First Unified Front, this partnership was short lived due to conflicts between secondary agendas. However, despite its short life, the First Unified Front was able to accomplish a new power structure in the North, and begin the stabilization of the region.


A complicated civil war followed the First Unified Front – a war that encompassed the second Sino-Japanese War, WWII, and ended in the People’s Republic of China. This Civil War between the forces of the KMT and the CPC, was as much an ideological battle as it was a militaristic effort, and various foreign powers also contended for the land and people of the China.


The Second Sino-Japanese War became a major turning point for the national direction of China, fusing, though temporarily and superficially, divisions between Nationalism and Communism. These two political and military entities faced a common enemy in ousting the Japanese forces from mainland China, and strategic decisions made by both parties eventually led to the Kuomintang’s defeat by the CPC.


The devastating attacks of Japan’s highly sophisticated armed forces, have left long lasting marks on China’s perception of its Island neighbor. With total casualties being estimated between 20 million and 35 million, property losses at nearly $400 billion (USD, 1937), and nearly 95 million refugees, it remains a vicious scar in the minds of many.


Finally, the National Revolutionary Army of the KMT was so severely diminished during this war, that the Communist Party of China under the leadership of Mao Zedong was able to wrestle away political power and establish the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

For more information on this convoluted time period of Chinese history, the truths and impacts of which are still becoming clear today, please follow some of these links:

Wikipedia: Timeline of China’s History – Modern Period
History of China
China Knowledge
China History Forums

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Sun Yat Sen and the Kuomintang

We will preface each of the following sections with a link to the Wikipedia timeline for Modern China. The intricacies and power struggles that surround the building of a unified China under a single governing body have been continuous since the fall of the Qing Dynasty, and understanding that complexity is not something that this blog is intent upon. What we do hope to provide is brief glance at the various power bases (foreign and domestic), ideologies, and governance techniques utilized during the past century.

Sun Yat Sen

Best known for the founding of the Kuomintang nationalist movement, and as the leader of the Xinhai Revolution, Sun Yat Sen was dedicated to bring forth his vision of the new China. Though not single handedly responsible for the orchestration of the overthrow of the Qing dynasty and Imperial rule, Sun Yat Sen is regarded as the figurehead for Chinese Nationalism, and the establishment of the Republic of China.

Sun Yat Sen and with the help of many foreign and domestic Chinese, and foreign citizens (mainly Japanese), began orchestrating uprisings across Southern China as early as 1895. Armed revolution against the Qing and its army, was difficult, and these forces were defeated often. However, even from exile the persistent Sun Yat Sen continued to train and dispatch leaders to communities in mainland China, gather support from foreign sources, and bring Chinese nationals in Malay and Singapore into the nationalist fold.

After many failed attempts, the Wuchang of 1911 was uprising was successful, and within 48 hours from its initiation, the 3 major cities of Wuhan province were under the control of a new political power, and hailing to a new entity -- "The Republic of China." As the South of China slowly began to declare a new form of government, the Qing Dynasty in the North began their campaign to retain what power they could.

Electing their top general, Yuan Shikai, as the Prime Minister of the Imperial Cabinet, the Qing attempted to solidify their military power, and recoup their losses to the revolutionaries. Shikai had different plans and began secretly negotiating with forces in the South and outside of China to arrange for the peaceful abdication of the Empire.
The Abdication of the Qing Empire was formally carried out in 1912, leaving Yuan Shikai as provisional president over the north of China, Sun Yat Sen remained president of the Southern provincial government until April of that year when he resigned his presidency to Yaun Shikai and established the Republic of China as a unified nation.
The celebrations were short lived, due mainly to Yuan Shikai’s power lust, and the instability that often follows violent revolutions. By 1916 the
“Republic of China” was merely a title as power struggles across the land plunged the nation into turmoil. Governors and their provincial armies began vying for power once Shikai’s dictatorial methods and bid for a new monarchy became clear.
This widespread violence and instability would not end for another 35 years, including the second Sino-Japanese War.

Wikipedia - Early Modern China :
Sun Yat Sen
XinHai Revolution


Richard Hooker’s Work

Monday, June 23, 2008

Enter the 20th Century

So that about neatly wraps up the +4000 year-story of the people and land of the middle kingdom. There are many fighting to make it a neat, clean, and linear progression leading up to the current day. Others struggle to bring light to the unknown periods of turbulence, disunity, and variety buried in the annals of this land's history.

Some would argue that this imperial legacy has had little impact on China's development over the course of the last century. With the end of the dynastic tradition, and the founding of the People's Republic of China, political and social upheaval have resulted in the modern infrastructure. The next week's posts will focus on the transitioning of governance, economy, and social structure in the P.R.C. during the past century.

We will explore events that have molded Chinese policy and opinion, and some of the trends that have been critical in China's rise to the current day. How have policies in international relations and domestic politics helped to mold the unified P.R.C.? Economic reforms have impacted the structure of business, but have they had ramifications in other portions of society (culture, urbanization, etc.)?

What is the new political economy of the 1.? billion people currently inhabiting the P.R.C. and where did it come from during the upheavals of the last 100 years. And furthermore, are there landmarks, pointers or trend lines that can be helpful in our examination of futures possibilities for China and the world.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

China's Dynastic History -- Qing Dynasty

The Qing Dynasty



The last dynasty of the Chinese Imperial period, The Qing dynasty was generally a time of sorting and redistributing power amongst the new Manchurian leadership, the last vestiges of the Ming and other Han-Chinese, and vying with the influx of powerful European nations hungry for trade.


Though the Qing rulers were able to hold a succession of power, and establish a quasi-stable form of governance, the constant threat of rebellion and outside invaders pocked the dynasty. Human and material resources were spent on maintaining the region under dynastic rule, resulting in little development, occasional famine, and growing civil unrest.


The European maritime powers of Spain, Britain, Portugal, and others were intent on expanding trade within China. The Qing, on the other hand, repeatedly rebuked offerings and treatises aimed at promoting such trade. Instead, the conservative government declared that outside nations should pay tribute to China. This action provoked the Opium Wars and a series of other conflicts that exposed the under-development of China’s defensive technologies, and forced the nation to open up its reluctant trade routes.


The weakened Qing rulers were no longer able to support the fragile infrastructure they had built, and by the end of the 19th century a number of civil rebellions had taken place. These rebellions eventually succeeded in ending the Qing Dynasty, and with it the Chinese Imperial Era.


Much more information exists about the various artistic and cultural developments of the time, as well as the civil instability that was to account for the formation of the republic system of governance. Please follow the following links to more information, or submit your own suggestions:


Wikipedia Entry
Chinavoc
China History Forum