August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Cheap Plastic Color

Borrowing from the acronym that represents the leading political party in China, the title of this article will discuss the general pervasiveness of plastics in the PRC.

As the rain came down on Wednesday's Tennis venue, boxes of rainbow-colored rain ponchos were distributed among the many thousands of spectators at Beijing's Outdoor venues. While the sight proved to be quite and aesthetically humorous one, the deeper implications of this sort of behavior are a problem in China and other parts of the world.

In January of 2008 China passed policy limiting the use, sale, and manufacture of plastic bags in the nation. A nation wide surcharge for plastic bags was mandated, a tactic recently employed in some U.S. states and EU nations, and the manufacture of some types of bag was completely outlawed. The reason behind these policies is the basic chemical composition of plastics and its inherent resistance to degradation. Plastic has a general lifespan of many thousands of years, thus making it a Futures Image in and of itself.

However, the longevity of its chemical composition does not transfer to the usefulness of the products that are made out of it, and these many thousands of ponchos being donned at the Olympics, and everywhere else in the world that happens to see the occasional rain storm, are a perfect statement to that fact. For about 80 cents (US), two ponchos (alternatively viewed as human sized plastic bags) were purchased at a nearby corner store. With in five minutes of being worn, they were already showing stress marks, and one of the plastic snaps had begun to tear. It was obvious that these were not meant to last as rain guards, but no collection measures were in place to ensure their recycle either.

This is not an Olympic specific problem, but it does constitute an Olympic sized issue for our consideration.

For more information concerning the Production, Use and Impact of plastic bags please refer to the following pages.


JUNKRAFT -- from California to Hawaii on your plastics

Wikipedia -- Plastic Shopping Bags

Alternate Views on the Threat of Plastic Bags:

Times Online : Non-Threat

Worldwatch: Threat

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: A collection of Images

Today, we revisit the main hub of the Olympics 2008, between Pangu Hotel (the Torch), The National Aquatic Center, and the Bird's Nest. Ranging outside the fence once more, the following images were gathered, and will be briefly discussed.





The first Image is the megalithic clock. Understandably, a public countdown clock to any large event helps to build the excitement and anticipation amongst those who passby. The original Countdown clock was unveiled in Tiananmen Square nearly four years ago. Since then no -less than 5 additional clocks speckle Beijing's Highways. Police Stations and public facilities have also sported these wonderful devices, and as time went they all ran on towards Zero. I am searching for an official count of the number of countdown clocks across China, and more information on how prolific they are outside of the capital.

And now...there they all stand. Zeros across the board. The question of their purpose in times to come probably isn't much of a concern at this moment, but as years go on all of these relics are sure to become a collectors item for the generations that were most impressionable during the countdown. I wonder what kind of effect a constant reminder of this nature has on an individual, a community, or an entire culture.

Omega, the offical time keeper of the Beijing, Vancouver, and London Oympics has unveiled the Vancouver installation, and has plans for a similar version in London. We would like to consider the stark contrast of these clock in comparison with another monolith tribute to Time -- The Clock of the Long Now.

The Long Now Foundation began building the Millenium Clock in 01996, and the first prototype was initiated on new year's eve of 01999. We add an additional digit to these dates because of the scope of the project -- building a clock that will run accurately for 10,000 years. The prototype design is currently being improved for a larger version that will stand in an undisclosed location in Nevada, US.

To sum up a comparison of these two projects in less than a hundred words. The Olympic Clock was built to run to zero, and stand as reminder to millions that there was a bigger idea to build towards. The Clock of the Long Now has been designed to run for 10,000 years, and stand as a reminder to millions that there is a bigger idea to build towards. So far pretty similar.

But the ideas that drive the difference between countdown, and count-on, are quite different. The Olympic Clocks drive the building of monuments that will likely last less than a hundred years. The amount of human/natural resources, mind/idea power, and even things as mobius as "national spirit" required to build towards an event like th Beijing Olympics is draining. The fallout for China after the games is already coming under speculation in some circles.

Meanwhile, the ideas and challenges that drive the design and construction of a clock that will last an amount of time equal to the length of human history is transforming. The type of thought, resources, and energy that pours into a solution for this kind of problem is altogether differnt than that listed above. As is the end outcome.





This series of images comes from a new housing development directly across the street from the epicenter of the Beijing Olympics. Constructed in the past 3 years and openend in late 2007, this housing development was partially created for some of the families reocated for the building of the Olympic venues.

I thought it poigniant that these large concrete based towers were encrusted with pieces of broken of ceramic art. Shards of vases, tile, and fine "china" create an interesting montage. Especially considering the outcry from the estimated 250,000 people who were moved to make way for the construction of this proud national monument.

Just food for thought.








These last two Images are short, ambient eye-pieces, meant to give tribute to a major driving force behind the Beijing Olympic Games -- the nation of 1.3 billion people. The Olympiad has been a unifying factor for the nation of China, and many different projects on display around the Bird's Nest attest to that. These "Sponsors" and other like them have led very interesting existences during the build up to the games.

On a positive note, these projects serve as a testament to the inspiration and creativeness that have been born as a result of these games. The sense of national pride, and unification have spread across the huge expanse of China. For seven years, a goal and purpose behind China's development stood in the public mind, and stood as evidence not just political rhetoric. On the otherside of the argument is a complex question -- What will fill this void in the years to come?

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: "U-Home" brought to by Haier

Chaoyang Park is located just inside of Beijing's 4th ring road, in the quickly developing East Side of the city. It 60 plus hectare area is currently one of the cities largest green spaces, including a small amusement park, massive lake system, and miles of walking paths. Sony Entertainment has built a Science exploration center here, and other commercial interests are allowed to build within the park and keep its high priced real estate green. It is also host to the Beach Volleyball portion of the Olympic Games.

Upon entering the gates to the Park, i was immediately met with Coca Cola companies marketing campaign-- Cheerleaders dancing below a mammoth screen, music blaring at alarming levels, and more Red and White everythings than could be listed here. More commentary on companies saturating the Olympic surroundings, and their prolific use of the Olympic logo in entries to come.

Tucked just behind the soda installation were two bubble dome structures, rising from the sidewalk like bubbles through a straw into a glass of Mother's Milk. The hot pink signs emblazoned along the pathway denoted this territory of Haier, a China based manufacturer of home-appliances and technologies. I was abruptly invited to investigate the "U-home" installation, a glimpse into the "future" of households.

And there it was... the seemingly ever-prevalent view of automated everything, hearkening back to the Immersive Images like GE's "Home of the Future", Disney's "Tomorrowland"(1984) or (2008).

Technologies on display:

1) The Refrigerator-- with Internet access, a camera for recording messages to the family, and RFID enabled stock management. We are told it can even be set to pre-order food for delivery via online retailers and delivery agents.

2)The Air Conditioner -- with television, and Internet access. Can be turned on via text message!

3)The Home Computer -- But this time without any of those nuisances, like wires.

4) The Touch Screen Panel -- Translucent glass embedded with touch screen sensors. Browse the Internet, order and watch movies, organize your life... by touch.

5) The Video Conference -- A center hub houses five cameras. Display camera switches depending on the person speaking. You can talk to your bosses anywhere in the world!

6) The Television -- now waterproof and ready for your tub/spa experience.

7) The Water Heater -- Send it a text message and it can have the warm water ready for you as you crawl along the ring road in your car.

8) The Clothes Washer -- Now detergent free.


The Home of the Future.... now!!!!!

But let's analyze this from a futures perspective.

We are presented with a vision of the future that is now nearly 80 years old. The original vision of the future was created during GE's most visionary time, when innovation and technology were just coming into the public eye on a mass marketing scale. These visions were also developed before environmental degradation, limited resource availability, and cultural extinction came under consideration.

A closer analysis of the actual technologies also turns up some interesting points. Many of the showcased technologies are now considered standard in most western homes, with saturation levels of 6 of the 8 listed technologies above 90 percent. The integration of the Internet and cellular communications technologies were not explicitly included in GE's original "futures" images, but it was implicit that ubiquitous communication would exist via some technology or another.

Perhaps the most important implication of Haier's "U-home" is that this Image of the Future, still is an amazing future to behold for a majority of China's population. This gives companies like Haier, and other companies in the Home Appliance industry a huge market to inspire, and entice. Additionally, the use of this "future" as a selling piece for possibilities here in China might imply that as other developing nations evolve they too may be presented with the same.

The factors that lie behind the manufacture, maintenance, and disposal of these technologies have begun to influence new opinions of their convenience and usefulness in societies that have been normalized to them. The long term impacts of the technologies is encouraging a re-thinking of them, while alternative innovations wait for consumer support and an equally powerful marketing campaign.

This begs the question: Is this the home U-want?

Opening Ceremonies and First Impressions

The following video clips are the first pieces of evidence gathered as Images of the Future.







Image 1: PEOPLE

If there is no other factor that is of the utmost concern to the future it is the people that will populate it. To be in the People's Republic of China, therefore, on the eve of the Olympic Games and to see the throngs of security forces, volunteers, and fans that the event drew, forced this fact to the forefront of this blog.

In the videos above, you will see that people were in fact everywhere. It has been estimated that seating capacity for the Bird's Nest, site of the Opening Ceremony, is 90,000. Of those seats it has been estimated that approximately 80,000 were reserved for athletes visitors, sponsors, industrial partners, and other members of China's elite. This left approximately 10,000 official seats for sale, and those have been sold out since October 2007. The population of Beijing alone is 17,000,000.

This meant that most of Beijing would be watching the Olympics on a television screen, as would most of the world.

As a resident of Beijing, and humble researcher, I thought it my duty to do my best to get some fieldwork done, and I headed up to the venues by subway. After all, any digital remnants of the television broadcast would be available via YouTube, BitTorrent, or other online source. This experience, no matter the end proximity to the event could not be missed. I found upon exiting the subway, that I was not the only person to have had this thought. Thousands of pedestrians were out and about, and the local government had very well prepared itself for such a contingency.

Security barriers were established with a one block buffer zone for the venues. However, as barriers were confronted by the masses of people just wishing to be close to the event, small gaps in the barriers opened. Every time a gap was made or exploited by the prodding pedestrians, the police would temporarily give way, regroup, and establish a new barrier from which to push the people back. Each time this process occurred the barrier shrunk in size, and the outside onlookers were able to peer at the firework spectacle from closer and closer.

The chant:

"Zhong Guo, Jiao Yo!" (Go China!!!)
Rose up time and again.

Impressions:

With the limited number of tickets to all the games, and all having been sold out months in advance, my first impression was that getting a closer view of the Futures Images of the Olympics 2008 was going to be a challenge.

The visual analogy of a cell wall buffering the contents of the cell from foreign entities ran through my mind a number of times while circling outside the security lines. The constant testing of the security lines by us "outsiders," coupled with the organic movement of the security forces compelled this picture in my mind. The enlivened movement of people who had found a weakness in the barrier, and the excitement in their eyes, spoke to the positive intentions behind their rule breaking. These were not terrorists or protesters looking to pursue alternative agendas, but workers and citizens trying to get a closer look at this long-hyped event.

Taking this analogy to a different arena, what does the analogy above represent in terms of the economic boom in China, the rising middle class, and the dreams of success that fill the workers minds? In my opinion, their actions on Friday night speak loudly to the general behavior of the people who are looking to become a part of the bigger China event--its rise to be a second-to-none global superpower. In this event, the barriers take on a different form, and the pursuit of entrance to this event requires different actions, but the will is no less evident.

By the end of the night, I and hundreds of others found ourselves standing across the street from the bird's nest for the final fireworks display. Albeit, the 12 lanes of the fourth ring road made a quite uncrossable street, we had all gathered here for a view unimpeded by skyscrapers, and distance. We watched as volunteers for the event were bussed away, and security forces transported in to establish a new, closer, protection zone. Persistence and mass prevailed, like an ocean establishing a new shoreline, and when the show finally began our ocean had front row seats.

BA-BA-BA-Babies

It's August 8th, 2008.
Tonight at 8:08pm the Olympic Torch will be lit and the Games will begin,
and according to Chinese numerology,
the wealth and prosperity should begin to flow.

Already, across China, a rush for marriage certificate applications has swamped government offices, as thousands of couples wish to have their official documentation stamped with this luckiest day of the century.

Two days ago, 2008-08-08 was declared a national holiday giving millions of workers a day to celebrate.

Across the People's Republic of China today, approximately 56,000 babies will be born.

Born on the most prosperous day of the century.

In many ways it is for these babies, and the 20 million others born in 2008, that the work of this project may be most relevant for. It is the world that this generation is being born into that comes under examination. Analyzed for glimpses of the world being planned for their inheritance. Ironically, while this blog attempts to encompass much of the technologies that enliven web 2.0, social interactivity, media sharing, and other wonders of the Internet, it is doubtful that any of the babies born on this fine day will know what a blog is. Indeed, the Futures Images and examinations included here may seem completely false if and when the "ba-ba-ba-babies" and those of their generation decide to investigate the world they were born into. Knowledge of this possibility however, will not impede the work itself.

It is now only six hours until the Olympic flame torch is lit under the hazy skies of Beijing. What for us is an event the century, will for those children born today be the event of a lifetime. It is likely that this nation will not celebrate as loudly and wildly as it will tonight for a long time to come. After all, tonight's celebration represents the birth of the new China -- a global partner, and participant in the motto: "One World, One Dream."

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: The Four Futures Frameworks

Throughout our examination of the Futures Images of the 2008 Olympic Games we will refer to a categorization system as taught at the "Manoa School" of Futures Studies. This system can be employed to assist a researcher in imagining the a more general future to which an image or artifact belongs. After an artifact or image has been categorized, a researcher can begin to extrapolate the consequences of the future to which it belongs, and thusly place the artifact or image in a constructive context.

We introduce here the Four Futures of the Manoa School with a brief explanation of their components.

I. The Continued Growth Scenario

Perhaps, one of the most popular future scenarios, the Continued Growth Future is founded on the assumption that most current trends will remain stable. General upswings in economics, technologies, and social trends are extended along the length of the analysis and become the foundational drivers for theories relating to the future.

II. The Collapse Scenario

This grouping defines any number of futures in which current trends begin a decent. Many of these scenarios require a catalyst-- a factor or event that is inter-related with all components of the given future. At the on-set of the overall down-trend the catalyst serves to send critical elements of the future into a state of decay. Sometimes, in an effort to break from a downtrend, innovation will result in novel applications a technology.

III. The Controlled Growth Scenario

The Controlled Growth scenario is a state of the future in which many trends are artificially held in a static. This scenario normally involves an instutitute able to bolster trends that may
are in a downtrend, and limit trends which would otherwise be in growth. By utilizing leverage in all factors of the future in question, the institute and its policies are all-encompassing.

IV. Transformational Scenario

By its very definition, transformation involves the change from one state of being into something different. In regards to Futures Studies, this transformation results in a state so fundamentally different from the original that it must be examined under a new set of trend variables. As the new variables which will help define the transformational trend are not alway clear from the onset of a recognized transformational scenario, the original trend enters into an undefined state until these variables become clear.


It should be noted that many "Futures" are actually composites of elements from each of the outlined scenarios. Any future may represent a majority of elements from one scenario or another, but rarely will one future be comprised solely of elements from one possible scenario.
Therefore classification of a particular future, and any artifact thereof, should be considered only as a general definition, not as limiting factor.


More information concerning the Four Futures of the Manoa School can be found in the readings of the Manoa School Archives, here.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Images of the Futures

Images of the Futures

As the countdown to the Olympic opening ceremony reaches the two-day mark, I think it necessary to express some quick views and definitions of Futures Studies that will be referred to in the coming weeks. Prefacing this blog is a statement linking the concept of a future dream to output by the entity holding said dream. We use the word “entity” here because a group may hold a common dream or ideal, just as they can be personalized. Any portion of this dream can be considered an Image of the Futures.

An Image of the Futures is a powerful tool in discerning overall concepts that drive a preferred Future and its outcome. As archeologists are able to envision lifestyles of generations long past from a single artifact, a Futures researcher may extrapolate key factors of a future society from a single Image. The important distinction to make in drawing this analogy is while archeologists often have tangible elements from which to build their creative ideas of civilizations past, Futures researches often work in an opposite fashion. While the uncertainty that surrounds the futures possible is an excellent breeding ground for creative ideas, Futures Research spends a majority of its time establishing these ideas in tangible way for someone here in the present.

These tangible manifestations do not need to be picked up, dusted or extracted from a time-space anomaly. Futures researchers do not pull forth shards of strange polymers from a gap between dimensions, or deal in the translation of texts from our post-fathers. Often, Images of the Futures are not physical for the user at all, but rather exist on a plane that is “almost” real, that is believable. These Images come in many forms, of which we will discuss the most popular below.


Fiction:

Most are quick to point to the volumes of science fiction written about a time and place in the future, as Images of the Futures, and this is indeed a category rife with Images. However, new forms of media have given us new forms of fiction, and these too must now be included. Film adaptations of popular science fiction novels serve as a vehicle for the concretization of these Images, however the film media has also provided creative minds with new tools to invent and create future worlds. Some films, written and produced primarily for a cinema audience have new ways of constructing and presenting future worlds.

Related to film, but given a much shorter window of time through which to present a Futures Image, are commercials. Here within a 15-60 second time frame, entire future worlds come into existence laden with implicit futures drivers, are experienced, and then disappear. Though sometimes very minimalist in presentation, Futures Images from the advertising world are often high symbolic and contain assumptions about future worlds that go unnoticed.

Perhaps the most interesting form of storytelling to arise in the past 20 years, and one that has embraced a variety of Futures Images, we must also consider the videogame/computer entertainment genre. Many of these interactive storylines take place in future “Earths” or earth based societies, and involve future Earth creatures, human or otherwise. The level of interactivity offered through gaming also offers a different path for Future Images to concretize in the minds of users. By adding an interface to the fiction, and incorporating a physical component to the story experience, Images of the Future take on different character in comparison to one-way medias like film and print.


Immersive Environments:

This genre encompasses attempts to fuse the present time with one or more Future Images in a space constructed to excite all of the human senses. Through the creation of a backdrop, characters, props, and artifacts Immersive Environments of many twists, and futures are created. By enveloping the user in a Future World, and all of the Images that are held therein, the Immersive Environment provides an increasingly tangible experience.

Some great examples of this include the 1939-1940 World’s Fair entitled “The World of Tomorrow.” This event held a variety of opinions and visions of what Futures would bring humanity, and gave people lucky enough to go a glimpse at the cutting edge technologies, and creative ideas for the direction of those technologies. An excellent amateur website written by an attendee of “The Fair” is found here.

Walt Disney’s Tomorrowlands and EPCOT center are also examples of big budget Immersive Futures Environments. These installations are meant to represent a lifestyle of the future. The “inhabitants” take on stories, behaviors, and implements that fit the idealized society. A recently refurbished Tomorrowland was opened in Disneyland (CA, USA) this summer (2008) to a variety of reviews. Other Tomorrowlands in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Florida, and Paris (titled Discovery Land) are also open.

Additional work in Immersive Futures has been conducted by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies involving small-scale recreations of Hawaiian lifestyle 2050. These installations, created for the Hawaii 2050 conference, include Futures Images like “inhabitants”, artifacts, specialized character behaviors, and background soundtracks. Videos of these installations and other Immersive Futures from HRCFS can be found at the following links: Blue, Orange, Silver, Maroon.


Architecture and Installation Art

Additional Images come in the forms of Architecture (conceptual, and created) and installation artwork. Often, the statements by the designer concerning the form and function of such creations are telling in the interpretation of the latent Futures Images they encompass. . The relatively long-term nature of both Architecture, and Installation Art guides the designers and architects to create something that can stand both functionally and aesthetically for years, decades, sometimes longer.

Building and Public Space designs, for example, may include environmental technologies to buffer any resource footprint. They may include green roofing, solar paneling, ambient environment controls, and other systems to accomplish this task. Similarly, if the building is constructed to represent the long-term goals and ambitions of the firm contracting the new space, then architecture has a unique way of manifesting those stated ideals.

Installation art works in a similar fashion, by helping to define a space, and the way in which people interact with that space. This process is based upon ideals, and these art pieces stand as unique interpretations of ideals driving certain futures. Some installation art goes as far to encourage interactivity between the occupants of the space, and the artwork. Digital technologies are expanding degrees of interactivity all the time.


Images at the Olympics

Once the Olympic Games have begun, we will study Images of the Futures that are represented at and around the games. While most of the Games viewers will be watching via the television, we think it very important that an analysis of Images presented in this media takes place as well. September we will investigate the Images presented via television broadcast, while August is limited mainly to Images presented at the Olympic site.