Beijing 2008: One World, One Dream. Whose?

Tom Sawyer on the Yellow River: One Aspect of a Transformational Scenario (Maybe)

2008-10-08T13:08:00.003+08:00

Tom Sawyer's Asia: Yellow River Rocket

I have now been animate for 27 years. A creation of the Global Positioning Network's artificial intelligence engineers, my name's Tom Sawyer, and I'll be your guide down the historical Yellow River Basin. As we travel along this 3500 mile long waterway with a history as rich as the silt it has deposited along its pathway, I will help you to interpret the surroundings, interact with the people, and understand the importance of this national preserve.

I have been introduced to a number of the locals who inhabit the various regions that lie along the river's path, and indeed I have had number of conversations with most of the population in the cities, and villages. My omnipresence along the networks and multi-lingual translational functions have allowed me to gather heaps of information concerning the various customary social interactions, cultural nuances, and even personal pleasures and pursuits of the individuals. I am also able to conduct real-time auditory translation for you with near 97% accuracy for every major and minor dialect that we may come across along our travels. So if at any time yo have questions for me or for an individual along our way, please do not hesitate to ask me for assistance in interpreting or negotiating your surroundings. It's what I am here to do.

GPN also respects your desires for privacy, and the thrill and adventure that is inherent in finding one own way through a new environment. Therefore, a dormancy feature has been included in your software that allows you to reduce my functionality to the most basic of life systems monitoring at any time. This function can be engaged at anytime in three distinct ways: 1) Speaking the command: "dormant", followed by your special code word as initialized at your local network, 2) conducting the prescribed physical actions as pre programmed into your file at your local network affiliate, 3) Calling the pre-determined visual-cognitive combination through your visual cortex.

[write something about the different forms that the software can take on... physical, HUD, self-visilbe projection (only you can se me mode), and any others...]

This functionality is set to respond to any physio-cognitive activity that falls in the pre-determined "emergency" spectrum, again as set at your local network agency and their partner medical facilities. We monitor these levels at all times in an effort to establish your safety as number one priority during your journey. If you status measures within this spectrum for any longer than 3.5 seconds, emergency functionality will override any pre-set definitions, take an immersive analysis of the current situation, and alert the GPN. Again, the individual's safety reigns on high within our coding structure, so be assured that all actions taken on my behalf are in response to the systems prior knowledge of yourself and your surroundings.

All that legal jargon, safety first bologna, and "instruction manual" sheisse aside, let's go have ourselves a time to remember on the big river. On a personal note, I have travelled this path about 7,3450,000 since my last update, and am currently riding shotgun with 14,567 other individuals at different stages along the river. Never once have I had a repeat adventure, and I look forward to each one with the same zeal and excitement as the first one... it's in the programming.

The Golden Arches : A Continued Growth view of 2019 Beijing

2008-10-08T13:03:00.002+08:00

FASTFueling New China -- 2019, Beijing, China

Ah yes...McDonald's.
Those golden arches probably sum up "New China" as well as any multi-cultural icon here in Beijing. And now they are more prolific than ever.

I recall a few years back, during the global financial crisis of a decade ago, trolling the depths of Usenet, looking for digitized books, in an effort to build a database for a project of mine, and coming across a title header that I thought at the time was just ludicrous. "Hooray for deficit spending and the 2019 89.95 Mcdonald's value meal" wrote one poster of digital literacy guides. Most of the books contained under this header were reference guides for web development and computer programming, but who was to know that the poster's prediction of price inflation would be so accurate.

The only mistake that he made was assuming that 89.95 stood for US Dollars and not the mighty Chinese Yuan. Walking down the main sponsorship street of the Beijing Olympic Games, my hunger was piqued and I stepped inside McDonald's Olympic flagship restaurant. The largess of the facility would have overwhelmed me a decade ago, but now it seems the norm for most western fast food chains.

Four floors tall with two fully staffed order lines (each with over 30 registers) and throngs of people waiting in line for some of the best "valued" meals in town. Yep...89.95 quai will get you a large veg-burger, large fries, and large soft drink, and compared to the 60-100 yuan bowl of limp rice noodles, it tastes pretty damn good.

Though the inflation of the yuan has been at the forefront of some global banking report for the last two years, China's central bank has had a difficult regulating the flow of new cash into the system. The stricter the regulations become on cash, the more credit markets seem to be opening up, and the availability of a beginners credit cards has this nation's fragile central bankers quaking.

When China declared that it would assist the international banking crisis of 07-09 by investing billions into the failing banks of Europe and the U.S. the surge in open banking opportunities between China and other parts of the world accelerated at an astounding rate. The resulting in flux of "credit" allowed foreign banks to finally begin issuing credit cards to Chinese nationals, who have been some of their bast customers of the decade.

McDonald's, one of the largest outside investors in mainland China, with close ties to the agriculture structure of the PRC, was one of the first companies to extend a banking card to its loyal customers. Their virtual control of huge swaths of Chinese farmlands, and China's increasing shift towards bio-fuel as its main source of energy, has propelled the fast food chain to the heights of global success. Their filling stations, pumping out McDiesel at an ever increasing pace, have led to a big shift in the nation's monetary and power structure.

The "Green Arches" as they have become known in many parts of Asia, have continued to supply the continent's bio-diesel filling stations with the highest grade and most reliable product since the first batch opened in 2012. Their initial surge into alternative energy, and the consistency with which their filling stations have been able to supply demand, have given McDonald's Energy Consortium (MEC) a whopping 80% of market share across China. Its stocks are soaring and its continual growth has been one of the foundations for the last decade of Chinese development.

As the leaders atop those golden arches pull critical strings in the world's largest consumer market, a new form of regulatory governing has begun to emerge here in the PRC. The openness of McDonald's industry strategies to public inquiry has endeared them to the masses, who keep coming through those revolving doors with greater frequency. With such a huge demand they are able to out-bid, out-produce, and out-service, a majority of the small independent eateries of the nation. And their advertising campaigns reach far more computer screens, cell phones, and billboards than those of the competition (and even the CCP).

So sitting down to my 89.95 two cheesburger-facsimile meal, and reflecting on the separate paths that got me and this meal to my table has become quite an exercise in recollection. I will sign off for a while, choosing to enjoy my meal without "Big Brother" watching every jaw movement, and recording every audible response to the taste. I will log back in after lunch, and report more from the FastFood policy makers of 2019 soon.

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((BOORgr*))
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Facade Dynasty: A collapse society scenario (2053)

2008-10-08T11:33:00.002+08:00

Facade Dynasty:

A fresh coat of paint, and a cement based wall-patch can do wonders on architecture that is over a thousand years old. However, these techniques when applied to the thin layer of marble that enclosed a majority of Beijing's "boom-years" construction projects, just doesn't quite capture the same essence.

Between 1990 and 2014, urban growth ramped steadily in the People's Republic of China, and some of the world's largest human living centers were created in the mode and fashion of the times. Huge steel and concrete monoliths, glass encased domes and other architecture of the most cutting edge variety were to be found among China' s metropolitan areas. Brilliant reflections rippled across streets with every sunset, and light displays of the most intricate, and even interactive variety peppered skylines with advertisements. During the peak of this trend, Beijing, China's political center and a powerful economic base, was heralded the world over for it's brilliant hosting of the Olympic Games of 2008. The stunning architecture the city was displaying as the games, and the world's attention, rolled through town, captured the imagination of billions, and it amazing infrastructure was growing by the month.

But as the global economy began its disastrous downturn in early 2009, and the resource wars began to ramp up in intensity, the world that the PRC was so intent to gain the respect of began to avert their attention. As China plowed forward with its plans to out-build and out-"face" the globe, other nations were seen to be stripping down the results of industrial economics, and turning whole hearted attention to the stabilization of their societies. While Beijing, ChongQing, Macau, HongKong, and ShangHai continued to race towards "the future," the vision of that future was changing, and the availability of resources necessary to propel such a future dwindled rapidly.

Despite China's best efforts to secure stable trade relationships with Africa, South America, and Oceania, as the crunches for its potable water and oil needs, many of these nations began to stockpile whatever resources were available to them. Repealing international trade agreements and drastically raising the prices and taxes of exports, many of the nations responsible for exporting raw materials to China deemed the monetary profits of little advantage compared to keeping those resources at home. As public and private military units scoured the globe to leverage resources to their funding agencies, China's million man army was deployed to secure Asia, and whatever other assets it could.

Sadly, a rapid decline of potable water resulted in the majority of global military actions being short-lived. Logistical attacks carried out on military databases, and communications networks resulted in huge numbers of soldiers being stranded in the field, and subject to the environment in which they were stationed. As each year passes and news of another mass execution site comes through the moratorium channels, we are still realizing to extent to which military action by most nations failed, and humanity's "level" playing field was founded. For example, the camp of nearly 30,000 Chinese now living in northern Chile was initially deployed on a mission to secure lumber and possible precious metals. Encountering resistance from U.S.- and Colombian-backed private armies, and running dangerously low on supplies, the soldiers negotiated a truce, trading 80 percent of their weapons for the small pocket of forest that they now inhabit. Similar stories concerning ex-NATO coalition forces in Central Asia and the Saudi Peninsula also pepper the communication channels.

As regions continued to harbor their natural resources, and restrict their trade, the People's Republic of China brought new construction projects to a screeching halt. The highly centralized governance ordered strict prohibitions on urban development projects not imminently necessary for the maintenance of infrastructure and bare-bones housing. While the 14th five-year was aimed at de-urbanization and bolstering of security in the rural community, stemming the flow of the city-bound millions proved to be more difficult than anticipated. The thriving black markets of the city, and exploitable infrastructure for mass mobility and shelter continued to draw the rural workforces to the metropolitan areas. Those staying in the rural areas were generally members of the local Party, and worked for private gain and security. Provincial Army units were often swayed by the promises of the highest bidder, and modern warlords reigned in control of the resource wealthy areas of the PRC.

The unity and national identity that had been crucial to the forming of the People's Republic of China began to quickly unravel, and the dark under belly of the dragon-nation slowly emerged. On buildings, the crumbling stone facades began to slowly unhinge from the steel skeletons that held them. While main highways and thorough fares were well maintained initially, the rapid degradation of the cities' peripheral roadways spilled more congestion onto the main roads. As side alleys piled up with fuel-less cars, the pressures began to impede major waterworks throughout major urban centers. The "Wash" of Beijing 2028, a project aimed to clear the city's sewage system through heavy rain inducement, became a disaster of the profoundest magnitude. After the third day of deluge rains, the city's ailing water pump facilities gave out, spilling millions of gallons of untreated sewage into the underground passages of the city. The passages housed much of the electrical infrastructure for the metropolitan area, and weeks of standing water slowly brought darkness to nearly every city block in the inner three rings, and over half of the developments between the third and fourth rings.

Beijing's decent into chaos was only one example of urban disarray in the People's Republic of China and in other global super-cities. Capable urbanites fled to the city outskirts in an effort to cling to the lifestyles they had once dreamed about, where they were promptly confronted by the incoming masses in flight from the rural war zones. As groups clashed, and swaths of the cities were abandoned, the fragility of Beijing's "face" lay exposed to the people for whom it was once the key component of the term "better life."

The materials of buildings became re-cycled walls for temporary shelters. Glass plates that weren't laying shattered around streets or building floors was re-claimed for make shift water collection projects, and a variety of small scale greenhouses. Sheet metal was garnered by bands of wrench and crowbar wielding "urban recyclers," often selling the goods to resource hordes or using the materials for personal shelters, etc. The physical facade of Beijing -- the elegant gardens, the freshly painted historical monuments, the mammoth centers for sport, art, business, education, and culture-- were to become the symbols of broken hope, as time and necessity worked their way into slight, crooked gaps in the grout.

Perhaps more devastating was the collapse of the Cultural Facade that had pulled the PRC through such a radical transformation during the early 21st century. As the nation fell into disarray, the tenuous national pride and identity quickly turned itself inside out, resulting in the division of China's demographic landscape along regional, fiscal, ethnic and other distinction lines. The once powerful Party fell into vicious power cliques, and the infighting that ensued alienated nearly 60% of the representative members and nearly 80% of the provincial representation. This debasement of power forced the urban social elite to begin allocating a larger percentage of power to the resource rich rural representatives, and their new agenda. The generation gap between the middle-agers of a prosperous and growing China, the elderly who vastly outnumbered them, and the toughened-without-loyalties youth continued to be one of the largest problems the nation faced. The elderly, mainly forced to take care of themselves founded large communal installments in the outskirts of provincial urban centers. Their children, inheriting a nation on the skids, found themselves vastly outnumbered concerning the amount and type of work to be done, and the skills for which many of them had been trained. The youth, though small in number, represented a large portion of the able-bodied populous, and many, unwilling to be the caretakers for the huge number of elderly, were to be found in the ranks of private armies.

Unified China, the great anchor for the Asian continent, found itself acting more of the great hull of the necessary oil rigs that stopped coming -- sunk under the weight of plans, pirates, and need for petrol. Though China was not alone in the great global collapse that has occurred, this historian, chronicling the fall from grace in Beijing, can only offer these thoughts and shreds of information and insights. We hope that whoever is reading these, and whenever you find yourself, can find some solace in what was the dream that drove this once great nation. Like the phoenix that once symbolized this mighty nation, perhaps some flame for the future can be found in these passages.

Unknown, circa 2053

September Reflections: Seoul - a peek at Beijing's Future?

2008-09-10T21:42:00.013+08:00

In 1988, the Olympic games were held in Seoul, South Korea, marking the country's progress and development in its short history. Largely regarded as a success, the '88 Olympics were the first games held on mainland Asia, and were highly touted as Asia's entrance into the developed world.

Now, twenty years later, as we embark upon the task of outlining possible futures for Beijing, China, Asia, and parts of the world, I was fortuitously afforded the chance to go to Seoul. In gathering visual evidence of the living remains of the Olympic festival of 88, and exploring the metropolis of Seoul for various indicators of cultural, economic, and political health, I was able to glean only the quickest and dirtiest of opinions. However, the significance of Seoul as a possible pointer for the cultural, technological, and demographic trends of greater Asia, may lend foundational support for some of the Future Scenarios stemming from the Beijing Games and the research of this project.

The Olympic Highway and Lotte World

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to make it all the way to the official Olympic Village of the '88 games. Along the road to what would have been a goldmine of theoretical tangents for my research, the median is lined with the national flags of the participating nations. Various tribute sculptures remain-- well kept despite being surrounded by a 6 lane urban highway. Most likely, the timing of my visit allowed me to see this section of Olympic Highway in a high state of floral decoration, and cleanliness. Though other aspects of the city would just as easily lead me to believe that this avenue always looks so well maintained.

These photos were snapped just outside the gates of the famous Lotte World, a huge complex including a high end shopping mall, a Korean Folk Museum, Lotte Luxury Hotel, and an amusement park with both indoor and outdoor components. The official opening of the Lotte World Adventure Park was in 1989, making much of its construction congruent with the Olympic Games, and most likely a major hub for post-Olympic, peripheral development in the area.

Boasting a massive indoor amusement park, with roller coasters, theme rides, indoor ice-skating rink, and a elevated tram, the Lotte World Adventure is as much a testament to state-of-the-art construction for its time as it is a fun place to go. Is it likely that similar installations will go into development at the close of the Beijing Games? Does the new National Forest Park, a huge swath of (relatively central) Beijing that has been set aside as green space represent not only a more expensive venture, but also a testament to China's commitment to "green"? For now we can only speculate, but my opinion is that both may turn true, and indoor amusement on a scale as grand as this is soon to follow.

In downtown Seoul, a red and blue, spiral pinnacle marks the emergence of the Cheonggyecheon River. Installed at the gateway of Seoul's downtown Olympic Park, the river now has a dual role in the cities urban art --standing as a tribute to the Games and other important events that have been hosted by the city, and also as a social center for festivals, markets, and, at night, the cities youth.

For a majority of its trek down-stream, the Cheonggyechong is kept shallow, and border by steps for sitting and resting one's tired feet in the cool water. It's clean appearance, and safe atmosphere are maintained by the city, and some private volunteers. What remnants of art, culture, and social ideology will remain for the Beijing Olympic sites? Were Seoul's city planners aware that the river would be a mecca for the myriad of Seoul's youth who stumble down to the river for a good foot soaking?

By looking at Seoul from a demographic stance, it is more likely that the fate of this small downtown stream was well planned and orchestrated by the Urban Design teams responsible for creating the urban world that more than half of South Korea now calls home. Indeed, the National Capital Area, including Seoul, Incheon, and the greater metropolitan area, is home to nearly 26 million people, and its population continues to grow, placing it among the highest human populated areas on the planet.

As Beijing grows quickly towards the 20 million mark in population, and other urban centers of China meet and eclipse that same figure, massive shifts will occur, and urban designers and planning teams will be forced to push the limits of their creativity and foresight. Watching peers cities like Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong, mainland PRC's urban centers will be keen to maximize efficiency of all resource consumption, transportation, and growth patterns. Increasing the pervasiveness of communications technologies, alternative energies, and integrated medias will also be of high importance, and installations like the Digital Media City in Seoul (opening in 2010), could likely be a significant working example of "ubiquitous" society.

DIGITAL MEDIA CITY

The DMC project is being hailed by the Korean government as a "'futuristic city center'[that] will function as the test-bed and hub of the digital media industry focusing on movie, broadcasting, animation, music, and online-education." With sponsorship by some major corporations like Woori Bank, LG CNS and LG Telecom, Korea Electronics Association, PANTECH, KBS Media, and the Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation it may turn out that these claims are conservative. I will briefly discuss some of the major portions of the DMC concept, but I highly advise any visitors to go to the main website for further exploration.

The Digital Media Street (DMS) will run the entire length of the DMC and offer a number of novel technological advances in invisible and ubiquitous personal communications and media availability. From high-speed wireless (capable of seamless HD streaming), to HUD social-profiles for other pedestrians on the street, embedded lights that respond to both the environment and the individual, and animated tour guides, the DMS will be a unique amalgamate of the latest stage of wireless immersive technologies. Whether or not the idealized experience, and the actual experience compare to one another is quite another story, and we will visit again in the future to test usability, novelty, and impressions.

The "Eco-friendly" terminology has been heavily employed by the public relations department, and the evidence of this puh can be seen in a few technologies integrated into the design plans. For instance, the land on which the DMC will sit is a reclaimed landfill that has been turned into an "eco-park," and eco-friendly housing is touted as the best way to " achieve eco-friendly development and create technology that puts man first." Truly, a claim of the highest moral intentions. Specific examples of eco-friendly technologies employed in the creation of the housing units, the eco-park, and the massive glass and steel facilities have yet to be fully released.

Seoul, 2008, 20 years after it played host to the world for 17 days of athletic competition is in many ways thriving. The Korean Culture Wave is sweeping across East Asia, and installations like the DMC are being built to ensure that influence remains cutting edge. The population of the National Capital Area, and the standard of living that they enjoy, continues to increase. And the '88 Olympic Motto "Harmony and Progress," may well be viewed as poetry in motion.

September: Widening the Scope

2008-09-05T12:35:00.002+08:00

In September, the One World, One Dream. Whose? blog will begin its final stage as a Futures Research experiment, an experiment geared at viewing the Beijing Olympics of 2008 in regards to China's past, present, and possible futures. In June we examined the long history of the nation now known as the People's Republic of China. In July, an examination of the current trends effecting the social-political-economic-and technological aspects of Chinese society. August, Was reserved for the Olympic games, the culmination of nearly a decades worth of planning, construction, and building of "the dream," and what we saw in that final version.

Now it is time to look at possible directions for the evolution of that dream and to broaden the scope of our imaginations and critical eye. We will begin to contextualize the Images of the Future as documented during the Beijing Games -- contextualize them in terms of the futures possible.

This contextualization will be centered upon an Alternative Futures exercise that uses the four foundational futures as a basis for the creation of scenarios. These fictitious scenes will present possible future worlds, from a variety of perspectives, representative of and built around the ideas of a Continued Growth Scenario, Decline/Decay Scenario, Disciplined Society, and Transformational Society. These will by no means be comprehensive or all-inclusive worlds, rather brief glimpses into possibilities.

By extrapolating some of the signifiers that were discussed in August's examination of Images, we will create and explore some of the futures that the Beijing Games have given us a glimpse of.
But first, we take one last look at the Olympiad, and its legacy...

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Passing the Torch

2008-08-24T23:13:00.004+08:00

While the Beijing Olympics 2008 come to an end, the world is reminded that the Olympic tradition will continue in four years time in London, England. Though positive and negative commentary on the Beijing Games will continue to issue forth from analysts, journalists, and experts, many organizers and committees have already moved their focus to the upcoming games in the crown jewel of the once world encompassing British Empire.

The closing ceremonies, held in Beijing's "Bird's Nest" on August 23rd, dedicated part of the performance to the necessary passing of the torch to the hosting city, and in this time the world was given a myriad of images demonstrative of the ideas that will go into the design of the 2012 London Games. By employing a critical eye that directs our attention to a longer time frame, and broad scope of historic, and futures-oriented trends we may uncover some additional meaning to this brief exposure to Images from 2012.

The most expressive moment of the "London Games" portion of the show was not a double-decker bus transforming into a performance stage for Jimmy Page and David Beckham to do what they do best, but rather the extensive use of the symbolic "boarding of the bus."

While the act of getting on the bus has been used to symbolise a number of things in Western culture, it draws much of its symbolism from the idea that people collectively decide to allow another entity to take responsibility for their safety in transport. Similar to the train, the bus has become a symbol for collective transference of trust into the person at the controls of the mass-transit system. This imagery is often employed to represent the transference of trust in other ways: into a organizational specific charter, a political identity, or even a consumer mindset. The bus, and boarding thereof, has proven symbolically important for decades, and thus we are forced to pay attention to its use in the "passing of the torch."

As the video montage that played for the live audience (both at the Bird's Nest, and those viewing the CCTV broadcast), we follow a bus as it weaves through a pop-graphic 3D environment composed of London's iconography. The Clock Tower, Westminster Abbey, The London Eye, Buckingham Palace, and the British Museum are among the many notable pictures that paint the virtual landscape. Couple with this are various modes that encompass London culture from cab drivers and punk rockers to bankers, soldiers, and artists.

As the audience's attention is shifted from this virtual landscape to the live-action performers in the Bird's Nest, we see a modern double-decker bus touring the covered track. As the double-decker approaches the "bus stop" the audience is presented with a picture of those in queue for the bus ride: umbrella toting, newspaper reading, and hip-hop dancing Londoners dressed to represent the racial and economic diversity that exists in the modern city. As the bus pulls in, and the mad dash for the door begins we have the crux of the performance, and the most-telling futures image of the evening. The Londoners are repelled from the door to reveal a young Indian girl.

So...now we are confronted with a very interesting Image, likely fraught with intentional symbolism. India, comprised of some of the oldest cultures of human history, was once a British Colony, regained its governance and sovereignty in 1947 at the end of the British Raj. These nations' relationship has encompassed trade, territorial claims, cultural bias and discrimination, bi-lateral beneficial cultural exposure, and a significant emigration of peoples, knowledge, and technology from both countries. Many view India as an economic force that will become more influential than even China, as a booming population, and stabilizing national government may preclude a massive economic expansion.

The viewer, aware of some of these histories and expectations, must therefore examine the following gestures of the Indian-girl character with the utmost of scrutiny.

The girl, exits the bus, and approaches a young girl of Chinese nationality who is holding a football (soccer ball). The two exchange smiles and the football to a roaring crowd response. After the exchange the young Indian walks across the backs of the queued Londoners en route to re-boarding the bus. A well choreographed segment of the show, to be sure, but to what extent this points towards Britain's attitude toward India and the future of her vast population, we can only speculate.

However, the immediate response to the implied symbolism could be that Britain, in its bid to win back the hearts of the Indian populous is willing to have it's own hard-working, bus-taking population supplicate on behalf of the rising nation. Even if such actions were to occur in the coming decades, and the scope of historical context were to pass it off as a case of "just desserts," it is likely that the backs walked over will not feel the same sentiment.

Rather than dwell on this particular image presented by the future host of the Olympic Games, let's turn our focus to another holding nearly as much poignancy to possible Futures. As the "torch passing" segment of the ceremony is coming to a close we see 3 tourist-clad actors mount a throwback airline boarding staircase reminiscent of many a presidential plan boarding movie clips. However, at the end of the staircase, no plane awaits these young travellers, and apparently no amount of high-wire engineering so prevalent in the rest of the ceremony was able to conjure up an escape for these young travellers.

Could this gesture be an acknowledgement of some of the current strains on the global aviation industry, as fuel prices and passenger reluctance reach new heights? While it is unlikely that all of the world's planes will be fuel-less in four years, it is possible that location, and rising costs (for travel at least) may make the 2012 Olympics more cost prohibitive for its younger fans.

As is true for most futures oriented thinking, only time will tell if these hypothetical relationships exist between Symbolic Image, and lived reality...

As for the Olympics, the torch now resumes its global run, and returns to London, after a century of absence. Beijing, post-Olympic fervor, has become a hive of speculation, both domestically and internationally, even while the Para-lympics wait to begin.

Questions surrounding Beijing, China, and broader Futures at stake will be listed, addressed, and speculated upon in September...

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: "The Future is Forever Frontward"

2008-08-24T23:01:00.004+08:00

We take the title of this post from one of the music videos that has been circulating on Chinese television during the Olympic Games. The video, comprised of numerous rising singer-stars from Chinese burgeoning music industry dancing and singing together on a fusion set of hutong architecture, and various water and light displays, has been airing on CCTV.

In total, 10 music videos were officially sponsored by the Chinese Olympic Advisory Committee, and have been playing on Chinese Television for months. The thematic song "Beijing Welcomes You," from which the cartooned "Fu Wa" Olympic icons draw their names, included over 100 of China's biggest performers. Here is a link to the video with translation and a comprehensive list of the stars shown throughout the video.

Other videos are listed here:

One World One Dream by Liu Huan and Na Ying
Everyone is No. 1 by Andy Lau
This Is Our Dream by Wang Feng
Stand Up feat. Jackie Chan, Leehom Wang, Stefanie Sun, Han Hong
Forever Friends by Sun, Nan, and Amei
Sky by Jing Tan
We Are Ready by Nicholas Tse
Love's in Beijing by Sun Nan
Living Together on the Blue Planet by Nicholas Tse and Joey Yung
Cheers for Life by Han Hong and Yu Quan

The production for many of these music videos was conducted in late 2007 and early 2008 -- a testament to the speed and proficiency that Chinese media has learned for orchestrating projects of this scope. Perhaps one of the most interesting insights that these videos give us from a production perspective is the amount of cooperation that the Chinese government was able garner from both mainland and Hong Kong super stars. While little has been posted concerning the production budgets of these videos, we are curious to know the expense incurred to bring so many lucrative names together. If these artists were compelled more by a sense of national pride, and obligation, rather than a paycheck, it could have significance in the continued development of China's multi-media environment.

Many of the themes prevalent in these songs and videos are very much oriented toward egalitarian and future-thinking ideals. Camera shots of children, para-Olympian athletes, multi-ethnic crowds, and many of China' s iconic architectures combine to present us with an overview of the national media atmosphere. The transference of the broadcast ideals to the viewing audience has yet to be gauged nor fully unfurled. However, at least in Beijing, the extent to which these videos have pervaded television screens and available channels is extensive, thus implying that some reactions should be observable, both long term and short term.

It is still unknown to what degree these videos are airing outside of Beijing, but each deserves viewing (for entertainment of course), and analysis of content( for later enquiry).

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: The letter of the century: C

2008-08-21T00:31:00.006+08:00

there were just too many contortions and usages of the letter C to choose just one for this article which will take a look at one company that is heavily vested in the Beijing Olympic Games: Coca-Cola.

As mentioned before Coca-Cola has saturated the Beijing Olympic Games, and much of Beijing along with it.

The 1 line, Beijing's first subway line running from the East 5th ring road to the Fragrant Hills on the city's West side, has few paid advertisers. this is not because there is a lack of advertising space, but due to the saturation of the available space by few select companies, and none more than Coca-Cola. A major junction point of 3 subway lines at DongZhiMen, has been saturated by Coca-cola for the whole of July and August as seen in the video below:

At the venues, Coca-Cola was able to secure what appears to be a total monopoly on advertising in relation to any of its competitors in the Food and Beverage Industry. Below are pictures of Coke ads from the Tennis Venue, the Beach Volleyball Venue in ChaoYang Park, The Worker's Stadium venue, from around the Olympic Village. See Photos here:

As is evident from these photos, the Coca-Cola corporation has invested huge quantities of money into the Beijing Olympic Games, but the question of Why seems to be no question at all.
Drawing from the Visa card's slogan, the only other sponsor with a prevailing presence at all venues, Coca-Cola intends to be everywhere, anyone wants to be, now and LONG into the futures.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: A bit-a-bruit

2008-08-20T20:09:00.003+08:00

Two days ago, I was lucky enough to attend the semifinal of the women's soccer at Gong Ti, the Worker's Stadium, between the United States and Japan. I was excited as this would be my first visit inside of the stadium, which has stood in Beijing long before the Olympic Games.

Built in 1959, as a commemorative monument to the PRC's Tenth anniversary, this stadium is home to the Beijing Hyundai (a.k.a. Guo'an), the city's team in China's recently born "Premier" soccer league. It was recently renovated in preparation for its role in this year's summer games, and now has a seating capacity of over 70,000. There are future plans for it to host the first ever NFL game in China (August of 2009).

As a preface, this was the first time I was knowingly walking into a U.S.A. competitive match, and had enough time to think about some of the issues at stake. One issue, which is not openly discussed in China is the general animosity that many have for the Japanese, the U.S. teams opponents. Secondly, China's deeply seeded desire to stand atop the Medal heap at the end of these Games puts the PRC against the U.S., a well documented rivalry. Lastly, from a futures perspective, Gong Ti is now dwarfed by its big brother, the Bird's Nest, and many question what purpose either of them will serve in the future.

To address the first issue:

It is well known that China has some deep feelings of anger for the Japanese. These feelings come from the two Sino-Japanese wars of the last century, and Japan's economic dominance in Asia during the later part of the century. Recent surveys amongst China's youth show that anger for the Japanese is subsiding, a trend attributed to China's economic success, and the passing of time since the Japanese withdrawal from mainland China. I went to the game with a Chinese friend of mine, and while he was not anti-Japanese, he was adamantly rooting for a U.S.A. victory.
As was the rest of the Chinese flag touting crowd.

Perhaps due to China's success so far in the games or the American fans adaptation of the inspirational rally chant into Mei Guo, Jiao You, the Chinese fans in the crowd quickly picked up on the side of the U.S.A. Though the crowd sat quiet for a majority of the time, when a good play, or a goal was had by a U.S.A. player the cheering was deafening in comparison to the support for the Japanese team. In regards to the medal haul, Chinese fans still came out for good football, and apparently even more so for good American football.... er.... soccer.

And as for the stadium itself, speculation abounds, but it will likely remain home to the nascent Chinese Football Association (CFA) presence in Beijing. This league is a significant step for China, and for the tremendous potential many see in the area of Chinese professional sports. With such a huge population, games like football, basketball, and other easily accessible sports are widely popular, but to date there has been little support for profitable professional sports leagues in the PRC. The CFA and Chinese Basketball Association represent the most successful ventures to date, but have yet to turn a legitimate profit. Analysts and supporters are keen to view the development of this economic area in the future, and Gong Ti and other large scale venues stand ready to capitalize on the emergence of one or more sports circuits.

Gong Ti, the worker's stadium seems to be anticipating one or more sports markets to emerge. Its increased capacity, and recent upgrades on safety precautions would seem to signify planners long term plans. Additionally, it has even been refitted with a huge display screen that can turn 180 degrees and face the street. This megalithic T.V. will apparently face the street and one of the most popular neighborhoods in modern Beijing, during non-game time -- broadcasting public announcements, CCTV1, and even commercials. So even as real estate prices for the SanLiTun area continue to flower, Gong Ti will be able to subsidize its presence with advertisements, and support from the governing media.

The futures of the Bird's Nest will be discussed in more detail in a following article...stay tuned.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Solar Glow Walls and Basketballs

2008-08-20T00:14:00.006+08:00

On Saturday I was able to travel to West Beijing, and the quickly developing area around WuKeSong where the baseball and basketball venues were constructed. Without dwelling too much on the symbolism embedded in the building of the venues for two of the most popular western sports in the farther western reaches of the city, we dare say it was intentional. Additionally, we would like to propose that the pairing of the two venues has an additional aspect in terms of long term stratagem for creating a professional sports market here in the PRC.

Basketball represents one of the most popular and fastest growing sports in China. Sources quote anywhere from 100 to 600 million nationwide "participants" in the sport-- players, fans, organizers, and television viewers. The successful Chinese Basketball Association (CBA), started in 1995, has 14 teams, each playing a 36 game regular season, and the league currently draws crowds of over 800,000 total annually. Many, including NBA coordinators, view these statistics as only a beginning for the presence of basketball in China.

Baseball on the other hand has had quite the opposite reception in the PRC. While many nations of East Asia, notably Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, have been very successful in the sport, China is referred to as a "baseball desert" by many. Though 2002 saw the beginning of the Chinese Baseball League, mainland China's newest attempt at a professional level organization, it boasts only 6 teams and a 3-month-long season. However, due to China's huge population and interest in developing professional athletics, both American and Japanese professional baseball leagues have started to invest in the sport across the nation.

It would seem a likely scenario therefore, that the location of the basketball venue and baseball venue in such close proximity was more than just a way to categorize them together as "western" sports. Rather, this strategic placement may be a maneuver on behalf of outside interests to garner support for baseball, and compel its potential in the PRC. By joining the two sports in locale, visitors will undoubtedly begin to make connections between the two sport, and it is hoped that baseball will receive some extra attention.

Why the interest in growing a sports industry here in China: I just opened up a bag of chips and found something from my youth--a basketball player trading card. An NBA superstar, and player for the U.S.A. basketball team is staring at me from behind the card's glossy overlay as I put the chips to my mouth, and the NBA logo sits firmly in the card's upper right hand corner. All text is in Chinese. The market potential for sports iconography in China is huge.

With homegrown stars like Yao Ming of the Houston Rockets (NBA) drawing lucrative contracts and commercial deals, and a potential fan base of over a billion to pour their hard earned yuan into consumerism, Chinese professional athletics is viewed as rife with profits to be made. The commercial success of foreign sports icons in China has been huge for names like Manchester United, Michael Jordan, and the New York Yankees. As China's interest in professional sporting grows, so to will the interest in sports from around the world.

Similarly, sportswear producers see China as a market that can have a big influence on the entire industry. Top-dollar brands are of course heavily vested in and around the Olympics through direct and ambush marketing tactics. While Adidas was able to win the "official partner" status of the Beijing Games and Team China, other companies have taken the opportunity to pour on the commercials. China's growing middle class, and their disposable income, is being vied for heavily, and even brands that have lost their shine in other nations are able to build new identities and new customer bases.

And as for the Solar Glow Wall title of this blog, near the Wukesong venues is an installment of a technology that addresses both large scale advertising projects, and the "green" theme of the Beijing Games. Unveiled in May 2008, the Zero Energy Media Wall is the product of a cooperative development team composed of Chinese and German researchers. Covering over 24,000 square feet, and powered purely by a self contained photo-voltaic array, the installment is used to show artistic works. However, as a substitute for the prevalent (and energy consumptive) neon light displays on many Beijing store fronts, and the single use billboards around town, it is likely that this kind of sustainable and flexible technology will be adopted more.

Thus, the Yao Mings, MJ's, Beckham's, Kobe's, and Tiger's of China's growing professional sports circuits will have another venue in which they and their "favorite" gear can appear larger than life.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: And now... Many signs from "our" sponsors

2008-08-16T14:08:00.002+08:00

There are numerous global sponsors, and China based "partners" of the Beijing Olympics 2008:

Here is a list of the most prominent, and the visual onslaught that they have brought down on the cities public transportation system. Please view the slide show for visual evidence.

Global Partners:
1)Coca-Cola
2)McDonald's
3)GE
4) Lenovo
5) Panasonic
6)Manulife
7)Omega
8)Kodak
9)Johnson & Johnson
10)Samsung
11) Visa
12)Atos Origin

China Partners:

1) Bank of China
2)CNC (China Network Communications)
3)SinoPEC
4) CNPC
5) Volkswagen
5) Adidas
6) China Mobile
7) Air China
8) Johnson & Johnson
9)PICC
10) State Grid

We mention these companies because of their heavy investment in and around the "dream" games, and the potential long-term marketing that is going-on. More images of the heavy presence of these companies along major transportation routes, in public spaces with high pedestrian traffic, and even key television spots are to follow to understand the saturation that is taking place.

After all, the minds of a consumer populous of 1.3 billion are attentive, inspired, and supple. Is this forward thinking as well as the formation of future thought patterns?

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Cheap Plastic Color

2008-08-16T12:10:00.003+08:00

Borrowing from the acronym that represents the leading political party in China, the title of this article will discuss the general pervasiveness of plastics in the PRC.

As the rain came down on Wednesday's Tennis venue, boxes of rainbow-colored rain ponchos were distributed among the many thousands of spectators at Beijing's Outdoor venues. While the sight proved to be quite and aesthetically humorous one, the deeper implications of this sort of behavior are a problem in China and other parts of the world.

In January of 2008 China passed policy limiting the use, sale, and manufacture of plastic bags in the nation. A nation wide surcharge for plastic bags was mandated, a tactic recently employed in some U.S. states and EU nations, and the manufacture of some types of bag was completely outlawed. The reason behind these policies is the basic chemical composition of plastics and its inherent resistance to degradation. Plastic has a general lifespan of many thousands of years, thus making it a Futures Image in and of itself.

However, the longevity of its chemical composition does not transfer to the usefulness of the products that are made out of it, and these many thousands of ponchos being donned at the Olympics, and everywhere else in the world that happens to see the occasional rain storm, are a perfect statement to that fact. For about 80 cents (US), two ponchos (alternatively viewed as human sized plastic bags) were purchased at a nearby corner store. With in five minutes of being worn, they were already showing stress marks, and one of the plastic snaps had begun to tear. It was obvious that these were not meant to last as rain guards, but no collection measures were in place to ensure their recycle either.

This is not an Olympic specific problem, but it does constitute an Olympic sized issue for our consideration.

For more information concerning the Production, Use and Impact of plastic bags please refer to the following pages.

JUNKRAFT -- from California to Hawaii on your plastics

Wikipedia -- Plastic Shopping Bags

Alternate Views on the Threat of Plastic Bags:

Times Online : Non-Threat

Worldwatch: Threat

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: A collection of Images

2008-08-13T21:25:00.006+08:00

Today, we revisit the main hub of the Olympics 2008, between Pangu Hotel (the Torch), The National Aquatic Center, and the Bird's Nest. Ranging outside the fence once more, the following images were gathered, and will be briefly discussed.

The first Image is the megalithic clock. Understandably, a public countdown clock to any large event helps to build the excitement and anticipation amongst those who passby. The original Countdown clock was unveiled in Tiananmen Square nearly four years ago. Since then no -less than 5 additional clocks speckle Beijing's Highways. Police Stations and public facilities have also sported these wonderful devices, and as time went they all ran on towards Zero. I am searching for an official count of the number of countdown clocks across China, and more information on how prolific they are outside of the capital.

And now...there they all stand. Zeros across the board. The question of their purpose in times to come probably isn't much of a concern at this moment, but as years go on all of these relics are sure to become a collectors item for the generations that were most impressionable during the countdown. I wonder what kind of effect a constant reminder of this nature has on an individual, a community, or an entire culture.

Omega, the offical time keeper of the Beijing, Vancouver, and London Oympics has unveiled the Vancouver installation, and has plans for a similar version in London. We would like to consider the stark contrast of these clock in comparison with another monolith tribute to Time -- The Clock of the Long Now.

The Long Now Foundation began building the Millenium Clock in 01996, and the first prototype was initiated on new year's eve of 01999. We add an additional digit to these dates because of the scope of the project -- building a clock that will run accurately for 10,000 years. The prototype design is currently being improved for a larger version that will stand in an undisclosed location in Nevada, US.

To sum up a comparison of these two projects in less than a hundred words. The Olympic Clock was built to run to zero, and stand as reminder to millions that there was a bigger idea to build towards. The Clock of the Long Now has been designed to run for 10,000 years, and stand as a reminder to millions that there is a bigger idea to build towards. So far pretty similar.

But the ideas that drive the difference between countdown, and count-on, are quite different. The Olympic Clocks drive the building of monuments that will likely last less than a hundred years. The amount of human/natural resources, mind/idea power, and even things as mobius as "national spirit" required to build towards an event like th Beijing Olympics is draining. The fallout for China after the games is already coming under speculation in some circles.

Meanwhile, the ideas and challenges that drive the design and construction of a clock that will last an amount of time equal to the length of human history is transforming. The type of thought, resources, and energy that pours into a solution for this kind of problem is altogether differnt than that listed above. As is the end outcome.

This series of images comes from a new housing development directly across the street from the epicenter of the Beijing Olympics. Constructed in the past 3 years and openend in late 2007, this housing development was partially created for some of the families reocated for the building of the Olympic venues.

I thought it poigniant that these large concrete based towers were encrusted with pieces of broken of ceramic art. Shards of vases, tile, and fine "china" create an interesting montage. Especially considering the outcry from the estimated 250,000 people who were moved to make way for the construction of this proud national monument.

Just food for thought.

These last two Images are short, ambient eye-pieces, meant to give tribute to a major driving force behind the Beijing Olympic Games -- the nation of 1.3 billion people. The Olympiad has been a unifying factor for the nation of China, and many different projects on display around the Bird's Nest attest to that. These "Sponsors" and other like them have led very interesting existences during the build up to the games.

On a positive note, these projects serve as a testament to the inspiration and creativeness that have been born as a result of these games. The sense of national pride, and unification have spread across the huge expanse of China. For seven years, a goal and purpose behind China's development stood in the public mind, and stood as evidence not just political rhetoric. On the otherside of the argument is a complex question -- What will fill this void in the years to come?

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: "U-Home" brought to by Haier

2008-08-12T22:36:00.003+08:00

Chaoyang Park is located just inside of Beijing's 4th ring road, in the quickly developing East Side of the city. It 60 plus hectare area is currently one of the cities largest green spaces, including a small amusement park, massive lake system, and miles of walking paths. Sony Entertainment has built a Science exploration center here, and other commercial interests are allowed to build within the park and keep its high priced real estate green. It is also host to the Beach Volleyball portion of the Olympic Games.

Upon entering the gates to the Park, i was immediately met with Coca Cola companies marketing campaign-- Cheerleaders dancing below a mammoth screen, music blaring at alarming levels, and more Red and White everythings than could be listed here. More commentary on companies saturating the Olympic surroundings, and their prolific use of the Olympic logo in entries to come.

Tucked just behind the soda installation were two bubble dome structures, rising from the sidewalk like bubbles through a straw into a glass of Mother's Milk. The hot pink signs emblazoned along the pathway denoted this territory of Haier, a China based manufacturer of home-appliances and technologies. I was abruptly invited to investigate the "U-home" installation, a glimpse into the "future" of households.

And there it was... the seemingly ever-prevalent view of automated everything, hearkening back to the Immersive Images like GE's "Home of the Future", Disney's "Tomorrowland"(1984) or (2008).

Technologies on display:

1) The Refrigerator-- with Internet access, a camera for recording messages to the family, and RFID enabled stock management. We are told it can even be set to pre-order food for delivery via online retailers and delivery agents.

2)The Air Conditioner -- with television, and Internet access. Can be turned on via text message!

3)The Home Computer -- But this time without any of those nuisances, like wires.

4) The Touch Screen Panel -- Translucent glass embedded with touch screen sensors. Browse the Internet, order and watch movies, organize your life... by touch.

5) The Video Conference -- A center hub houses five cameras. Display camera switches depending on the person speaking. You can talk to your bosses anywhere in the world!

6) The Television -- now waterproof and ready for your tub/spa experience.

7) The Water Heater -- Send it a text message and it can have the warm water ready for you as you crawl along the ring road in your car.

8) The Clothes Washer -- Now detergent free.

The Home of the Future.... now!!!!!

But let's analyze this from a futures perspective.

We are presented with a vision of the future that is now nearly 80 years old. The original vision of the future was created during GE's most visionary time, when innovation and technology were just coming into the public eye on a mass marketing scale. These visions were also developed before environmental degradation, limited resource availability, and cultural extinction came under consideration.

A closer analysis of the actual technologies also turns up some interesting points. Many of the showcased technologies are now considered standard in most western homes, with saturation levels of 6 of the 8 listed technologies above 90 percent. The integration of the Internet and cellular communications technologies were not explicitly included in GE's original "futures" images, but it was implicit that ubiquitous communication would exist via some technology or another.

Perhaps the most important implication of Haier's "U-home" is that this Image of the Future, still is an amazing future to behold for a majority of China's population. This gives companies like Haier, and other companies in the Home Appliance industry a huge market to inspire, and entice. Additionally, the use of this "future" as a selling piece for possibilities here in China might imply that as other developing nations evolve they too may be presented with the same.

The factors that lie behind the manufacture, maintenance, and disposal of these technologies have begun to influence new opinions of their convenience and usefulness in societies that have been normalized to them. The long term impacts of the technologies is encouraging a re-thinking of them, while alternative innovations wait for consumer support and an equally powerful marketing campaign.

This begs the question: Is this the home U-want?

Opening Ceremonies and First Impressions

2008-08-10T15:40:00.007+08:00

The following video clips are the first pieces of evidence gathered as Images of the Future.

Image 1: PEOPLE

If there is no other factor that is of the utmost concern to the future it is the people that will populate it. To be in the People's Republic of China, therefore, on the eve of the Olympic Games and to see the throngs of security forces, volunteers, and fans that the event drew, forced this fact to the forefront of this blog.

In the videos above, you will see that people were in fact everywhere. It has been estimated that seating capacity for the Bird's Nest, site of the Opening Ceremony, is 90,000. Of those seats it has been estimated that approximately 80,000 were reserved for athletes visitors, sponsors, industrial partners, and other members of China's elite. This left approximately 10,000 official seats for sale, and those have been sold out since October 2007. The population of Beijing alone is 17,000,000.

This meant that most of Beijing would be watching the Olympics on a television screen, as would most of the world.

As a resident of Beijing, and humble researcher, I thought it my duty to do my best to get some fieldwork done, and I headed up to the venues by subway. After all, any digital remnants of the television broadcast would be available via YouTube, BitTorrent, or other online source. This experience, no matter the end proximity to the event could not be missed. I found upon exiting the subway, that I was not the only person to have had this thought. Thousands of pedestrians were out and about, and the local government had very well prepared itself for such a contingency.

Security barriers were established with a one block buffer zone for the venues. However, as barriers were confronted by the masses of people just wishing to be close to the event, small gaps in the barriers opened. Every time a gap was made or exploited by the prodding pedestrians, the police would temporarily give way, regroup, and establish a new barrier from which to push the people back. Each time this process occurred the barrier shrunk in size, and the outside onlookers were able to peer at the firework spectacle from closer and closer.

The chant:

"Zhong Guo, Jiao Yo!" (Go China!!!)
Rose up time and again.

Impressions:

With the limited number of tickets to all the games, and all having been sold out months in advance, my first impression was that getting a closer view of the Futures Images of the Olympics 2008 was going to be a challenge.

The visual analogy of a cell wall buffering the contents of the cell from foreign entities ran through my mind a number of times while circling outside the security lines. The constant testing of the security lines by us "outsiders," coupled with the organic movement of the security forces compelled this picture in my mind. The enlivened movement of people who had found a weakness in the barrier, and the excitement in their eyes, spoke to the positive intentions behind their rule breaking. These were not terrorists or protesters looking to pursue alternative agendas, but workers and citizens trying to get a closer look at this long-hyped event.

Taking this analogy to a different arena, what does the analogy above represent in terms of the economic boom in China, the rising middle class, and the dreams of success that fill the workers minds? In my opinion, their actions on Friday night speak loudly to the general behavior of the people who are looking to become a part of the bigger China event--its rise to be a second-to-none global superpower. In this event, the barriers take on a different form, and the pursuit of entrance to this event requires different actions, but the will is no less evident.

By the end of the night, I and hundreds of others found ourselves standing across the street from the bird's nest for the final fireworks display. Albeit, the 12 lanes of the fourth ring road made a quite uncrossable street, we had all gathered here for a view unimpeded by skyscrapers, and distance. We watched as volunteers for the event were bussed away, and security forces transported in to establish a new, closer, protection zone. Persistence and mass prevailed, like an ocean establishing a new shoreline, and when the show finally began our ocean had front row seats.

BA-BA-BA-Babies

2008-08-08T10:51:00.003+08:00

It's August 8th, 2008.
Tonight at 8:08pm the Olympic Torch will be lit and the Games will begin,
and according to Chinese numerology,
the wealth and prosperity should begin to flow.

Already, across China, a rush for marriage certificate applications has swamped government offices, as thousands of couples wish to have their official documentation stamped with this luckiest day of the century.

Two days ago, 2008-08-08 was declared a national holiday giving millions of workers a day to celebrate.

Across the People's Republic of China today, approximately 56,000 babies will be born.

Born on the most prosperous day of the century.

In many ways it is for these babies, and the 20 million others born in 2008, that the work of this project may be most relevant for. It is the world that this generation is being born into that comes under examination. Analyzed for glimpses of the world being planned for their inheritance. Ironically, while this blog attempts to encompass much of the technologies that enliven web 2.0, social interactivity, media sharing, and other wonders of the Internet, it is doubtful that any of the babies born on this fine day will know what a blog is. Indeed, the Futures Images and examinations included here may seem completely false if and when the "ba-ba-ba-babies" and those of their generation decide to investigate the world they were born into. Knowledge of this possibility however, will not impede the work itself.

It is now only six hours until the Olympic flame torch is lit under the hazy skies of Beijing. What for us is an event the century, will for those children born today be the event of a lifetime. It is likely that this nation will not celebrate as loudly and wildly as it will tonight for a long time to come. After all, tonight's celebration represents the birth of the new China -- a global partner, and participant in the motto: "One World, One Dream."

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: The Four Futures Frameworks

2008-08-07T14:02:00.003+08:00

Throughout our examination of the Futures Images of the 2008 Olympic Games we will refer to a categorization system as taught at the "Manoa School" of Futures Studies. This system can be employed to assist a researcher in imagining the a more general future to which an image or artifact belongs. After an artifact or image has been categorized, a researcher can begin to extrapolate the consequences of the future to which it belongs, and thusly place the artifact or image in a constructive context.

We introduce here the Four Futures of the Manoa School with a brief explanation of their components.

I. The Continued Growth Scenario

Perhaps, one of the most popular future scenarios, the Continued Growth Future is founded on the assumption that most current trends will remain stable. General upswings in economics, technologies, and social trends are extended along the length of the analysis and become the foundational drivers for theories relating to the future.

II. The Collapse Scenario

This grouping defines any number of futures in which current trends begin a decent. Many of these scenarios require a catalyst-- a factor or event that is inter-related with all components of the given future. At the on-set of the overall down-trend the catalyst serves to send critical elements of the future into a state of decay. Sometimes, in an effort to break from a downtrend, innovation will result in novel applications a technology.

III. The Controlled Growth Scenario

The Controlled Growth scenario is a state of the future in which many trends are artificially held in a static. This scenario normally involves an instutitute able to bolster trends that may
are in a downtrend, and limit trends which would otherwise be in growth. By utilizing leverage in all factors of the future in question, the institute and its policies are all-encompassing.

IV. Transformational Scenario

By its very definition, transformation involves the change from one state of being into something different. In regards to Futures Studies, this transformation results in a state so fundamentally different from the original that it must be examined under a new set of trend variables. As the new variables which will help define the transformational trend are not alway clear from the onset of a recognized transformational scenario, the original trend enters into an undefined state until these variables become clear.

It should be noted that many "Futures" are actually composites of elements from each of the outlined scenarios. Any future may represent a majority of elements from one scenario or another, but rarely will one future be comprised solely of elements from one possible scenario.
Therefore classification of a particular future, and any artifact thereof, should be considered only as a general definition, not as limiting factor.

More information concerning the Four Futures of the Manoa School can be found in the readings of the Manoa School Archives, here.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Images of the Futures

2008-08-06T12:46:00.003+08:00

Images of the Futures

As the countdown to the Olympic opening ceremony reaches the two-day mark, I think it necessary to express some quick views and definitions of Futures Studies that will be referred to in the coming weeks. Prefacing this blog is a statement linking the concept of a future dream to output by the entity holding said dream. We use the word “entity” here because a group may hold a common dream or ideal, just as they can be personalized. Any portion of this dream can be considered an Image of the Futures.

An Image of the Futures is a powerful tool in discerning overall concepts that drive a preferred Future and its outcome. As archeologists are able to envision lifestyles of generations long past from a single artifact, a Futures researcher may extrapolate key factors of a future society from a single Image. The important distinction to make in drawing this analogy is while archeologists often have tangible elements from which to build their creative ideas of civilizations past, Futures researches often work in an opposite fashion. While the uncertainty that surrounds the futures possible is an excellent breeding ground for creative ideas, Futures Research spends a majority of its time establishing these ideas in tangible way for someone here in the present.

These tangible manifestations do not need to be picked up, dusted or extracted from a time-space anomaly. Futures researchers do not pull forth shards of strange polymers from a gap between dimensions, or deal in the translation of texts from our post-fathers. Often, Images of the Futures are not physical for the user at all, but rather exist on a plane that is “almost” real, that is believable. These Images come in many forms, of which we will discuss the most popular below.

Fiction:

Most are quick to point to the volumes of science fiction written about a time and place in the future, as Images of the Futures, and this is indeed a category rife with Images. However, new forms of media have given us new forms of fiction, and these too must now be included. Film adaptations of popular science fiction novels serve as a vehicle for the concretization of these Images, however the film media has also provided creative minds with new tools to invent and create future worlds. Some films, written and produced primarily for a cinema audience have new ways of constructing and presenting future worlds.

Related to film, but given a much shorter window of time through which to present a Futures Image, are commercials. Here within a 15-60 second time frame, entire future worlds come into existence laden with implicit futures drivers, are experienced, and then disappear. Though sometimes very minimalist in presentation, Futures Images from the advertising world are often high symbolic and contain assumptions about future worlds that go unnoticed.

Perhaps the most interesting form of storytelling to arise in the past 20 years, and one that has embraced a variety of Futures Images, we must also consider the videogame/computer entertainment genre. Many of these interactive storylines take place in future “Earths” or earth based societies, and involve future Earth creatures, human or otherwise. The level of interactivity offered through gaming also offers a different path for Future Images to concretize in the minds of users. By adding an interface to the fiction, and incorporating a physical component to the story experience, Images of the Future take on different character in comparison to one-way medias like film and print.

Immersive Environments:

This genre encompasses attempts to fuse the present time with one or more Future Images in a space constructed to excite all of the human senses. Through the creation of a backdrop, characters, props, and artifacts Immersive Environments of many twists, and futures are created. By enveloping the user in a Future World, and all of the Images that are held therein, the Immersive Environment provides an increasingly tangible experience.

Some great examples of this include the 1939-1940 World’s Fair entitled “The World of Tomorrow.” This event held a variety of opinions and visions of what Futures would bring humanity, and gave people lucky enough to go a glimpse at the cutting edge technologies, and creative ideas for the direction of those technologies. An excellent amateur website written by an attendee of “The Fair” is found here.

Walt Disney’s Tomorrowlands and EPCOT center are also examples of big budget Immersive Futures Environments. These installations are meant to represent a lifestyle of the future. The “inhabitants” take on stories, behaviors, and implements that fit the idealized society. A recently refurbished Tomorrowland was opened in Disneyland (CA, USA) this summer (2008) to a variety of reviews. Other Tomorrowlands in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Florida, and Paris (titled Discovery Land) are also open.

Additional work in Immersive Futures has been conducted by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies involving small-scale recreations of Hawaiian lifestyle 2050. These installations, created for the Hawaii 2050 conference, include Futures Images like “inhabitants”, artifacts, specialized character behaviors, and background soundtracks. Videos of these installations and other Immersive Futures from HRCFS can be found at the following links: Blue, Orange, Silver, Maroon.

Architecture and Installation Art

Additional Images come in the forms of Architecture (conceptual, and created) and installation artwork. Often, the statements by the designer concerning the form and function of such creations are telling in the interpretation of the latent Futures Images they encompass. . The relatively long-term nature of both Architecture, and Installation Art guides the designers and architects to create something that can stand both functionally and aesthetically for years, decades, sometimes longer.

Building and Public Space designs, for example, may include environmental technologies to buffer any resource footprint. They may include green roofing, solar paneling, ambient environment controls, and other systems to accomplish this task. Similarly, if the building is constructed to represent the long-term goals and ambitions of the firm contracting the new space, then architecture has a unique way of manifesting those stated ideals.

Installation art works in a similar fashion, by helping to define a space, and the way in which people interact with that space. This process is based upon ideals, and these art pieces stand as unique interpretations of ideals driving certain futures. Some installation art goes as far to encourage interactivity between the occupants of the space, and the artwork. Digital technologies are expanding degrees of interactivity all the time.

Images at the Olympics

Once the Olympic Games have begun, we will study Images of the Futures that are represented at and around the games. While most of the Games viewers will be watching via the television, we think it very important that an analysis of Images presented in this media takes place as well. September we will investigate the Images presented via television broadcast, while August is limited mainly to Images presented at the Olympic site.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Blink China, "No Way."

2008-08-04T19:20:00.003+08:00

Blink/China : “No Way.”

A popular read for many futures oriented individual was Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, wherein he examines the phenomena of systems on the brink of change. Recently, Gladwell published another book called Blink- and examination of “intuition” and split second decision and judgment making. While generally I espouse a more thorough examination before settling on a decision or judgment, I think it important to now state the most telling statement my brain spoke upon being in China for less than two days: “No Way.”

Honestly, I was not even in Beijing when this thought first crossed my mind, but rather in one of China’s older capitals, Xi’an, located west of Beijing in Shaanxi province. After a day of recovery from massive linguistic, currency, and altitude changes, I had this quiet thought staring down from a window onto Xi’an’s main street. At dawn the traffic begins to whir around the main turnabout at the city’s cultural epicenter, the Bell Tower, and for the next 18 hours the stream of traffic is heavy and continuous.

I thought perhaps that such a high concentration of automobiles was due only to the centrality of the locale, but as I looked back on the size of the roads and traffic even at midnight I knew this reaction was true.

I had no real deeply seeded preconceptions of what China was to look like, or be composed of. I had the vaguest idea that it was home to the world’s largest population, and was in the midst of an economic boom. However, these ideas had no placement in terms of real-world manifestations in people’s daily lives. No concept for how many cars were on the road, what urban infrastructures were in place, and what activities were involved. I knew that China was hungry, and growing fast, but what that looked like I had only blurry imaginations.

Staring down on the street that morning, and hearing “No Way” echo through my mind, was not the culmination of watching Bill and Ted’s excellent adventure too many times, or living in Hawaii for too long. Rather, it was an encompassing statement that echoed my opinion of the PRC’s development goals in relation to such issues as oil production and consumption, water availability, and the use of other natural resources. Yes, that is what I think about during my travels, because in my opinion the experience is had in order to be useful, and I intend to make use of my time in helping to plan for better systems of urban growth and resource management, for developing future worlds that we ALL prefer.

While I continue to research the various trends, numbers, and opinions concerning these issues, I reserve this blog entry for my “snap-judgment.” Having finally rested my body and mind to the point that “snapping” was in fact possible, the judgment came down from my cerebral cortex as the elegantly spoken : “No Way.”

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: As we get older...

2008-08-04T18:38:00.004+08:00

As we get older…

As I wrote in July, China is facing an aging population due to the “One Child Policy” instigated in 1979. Coming from the United States, where population aging has caused an explosion of retirement communities, needs for medical care, and interest in healthy living and lifestyles, I was curious to know what the effects of population aging would be here in the PRC.

As I approached my work on my first day of employment here, I walked through a small urban green space: Hong Ling Jin park. Named after the thin red scarves worn by many of China’s children during the 70’s and 80’s, the park was teeming with retirees at 7am. A breadth of activity and exercise occupied the thousands of elderly in the park that morning. Exercise routines, baton twirling, the “feather hack” (Jian Zi), ballroom dance, singing, instrument playing, kite flying, calligraphy practice, chess, and simple strolling all occupy these retirees time. They are outdoors, involved in health promoting activities, social, and consistent. Everyday, I walk through the same crowds, and every night as I leave they are still there. They do take a pause for lunch and the afternoon rest time that is traditionally upheld here, and from 11am until 4pm, the park remains relatively unoccupied.

Here are people between the ages of 50 and 80, exercising daily, and doing their part to maintain this park that they collectively see as their responsibility. Unpaid workers walk the grounds, dusting off park benches, cleaning the chrome of the artistic installations, and weeding the flowerbeds. As in most parks in China, touching the grass is strictly forbidden, and there is a small amount of reprimanding any individuals who fail to notice the signs promoting grass awareness. The surrounding community has become the source of the parks draw, as opposed to other areas of Beijing where green space is preserved for historic merit and tourism potential.

It is my opinion that the park was not created with the intention of becoming a haven for the neighborhood’s elderly. Rather I think this park stands as an example of the societies will towards longevity, and the concept of personal health held by some of the city’s aging working class.

This park is situated in one of the city’s districts that has yet to see a complete overhaul in land-use and development. It is in the middle of transitioning between the low style houses to the haze-hidden skyscrapers. Outside of my office building the rubble from a Hutong area sits covered by tarps, waiting for the construction limitations to end and the re-commencement of the building of another 6-lane through-street. Within the year, it is likely that the face of the neighborhood will have seen a dramatic alteration, as the wide avenue will bring with it new store fronts, high-end living communities, a relocation of many residents.

So, while median income in the area remains relatively low, Hong Ling Jin park stands as testament to the “people’s” solution to aging. Health and longevity can be better maintained through regular exercise, social interaction, and cultivation of skills, and public areas provide the space necessary for these activities. Is it therefore possible to say that alongside the forecasted aging of China’s population, we will see an accompanying trend in the development of urban green space, where these new retirees can go for recreation?

Such a trend would certainly coincide with the stated direction of China’s development, a topic we will cover in more depth during August.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: How's it look right now?

2008-08-02T20:04:00.003+08:00

How about the future?

It seems necessary to write an entry on how the concept of the future is viewed here in China. While a comprehensive analysis of the opinions 1.3 billion people can hold about the future seems well beyond the scope of this project, or any project to date, I will be able to provide a couple of examples of opinion I have gathered during my stay here. Along with these examples I will add some opinion as to what these views point towards in regards to a big picture view.

My first discussion here regarding the idea of a long term future came during a meal a friend of mine, named, for anonymity's sake The Grouch. Mr. Grouch is Chinese born, from a well to do family in the health industry. He has a sibling, an impressive Chinese education, and numerous years living abroad in the south pacific as an intern. His spoken English is of a high level and he is able to communicate well on a theoretical level. He loves some parts of his nation, but is by no means a hardened nationalist. He desires to travel more, gain experiences, and understand the world.

During our conversation he had these things to say concerning China, development, future trends, and more.

As we spoke about China, he was initially very proud of how far the nation had come. He spoke of the western ideal of progress, and believed that in many ways China was working in that direction. “We [China] only need time, and we will build our society into one like America. We got a late start, but we know that we want to develop into a country like that.”

As a polite skeptic, I thought that perhaps much of this sentiment was aimed at making our friendship more concrete, as it is said often: “Flattery will get you everywhere.” A part of myself believed that he was drawing a comparison between the U.S. and China’s hopes to make me feel liked. If that was the case, I decided to go with this notion, and we continued to discuss how China’s development looked from his perspective. He went on to explain in this vein, that he believed that the United States had held torch of progress for too long, had worked its people to a state of tiredness, and that out of thankfulness to this movement, China was now ready to bear the load and title of “world leader.”

I have been astonished since arriving in this nation to see a great many things. The amount, variety, and rate of architectural development has been one of the biggest surprises. I asked him some questions in regards to the resources, labor, and cost of expanding so fast. As these things were not a specific specialty for either of us, we could only exchange impressions and opinions, and this turned out to be very valuable. As we continued to discuss the infrastructure of Beijing, and the population of workers that is responsible for the building of it, he mentioned his view of China’s strategy concerning development.

“We are aware of the inequalities. The poor in the west, and in the country. We just know that if we are able to build up the wealth, first in the east, then we will be able to spread that money later to the west. We already have a bullet train to Tibet,” he said. I wondered as he related his opinion of China’s strategy, whether or not he believed it would be effective, and asked him how such wealth would be dispersed. He replied by again saying that time would tell, but that the grand strategy was to first make the east rich, then concentrate on western development. As I have gone on to research this project I have realized that this is, in fact, the strategy being employed by the central government. Mr. Grouch, knowingly or unknowingly, was outlining for me the working model of China’s development plan.

The last memorable thing he mentioned came during a short discussion of environmental factors, impacting this nation’s growth potential. He brought up most of the key discussions that tend to follow environmental concerns in China: Water, Air, Emissions. He even brought up Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth, which has driven much of my thought concerning global environmental factors, but not a film I would have thought had made its way to China. I was surprised to hear him say, that his awareness of the problem led him to only one conclusion: that some cities would be lost to the ocean.

In these comments I heard two aspects of futures conceptual thinking coming through. Firstly, The idea that as long as things continued, then China would be able to provide the western ideal of a “good life” for all of its citizens. That with enough time, China would be able to escape the criticisms for human rights, social inequality, and under-development. A long term conceptual model was certainly in place, and it carried hope, and passion.

However, the second echo of futures thought was that of inevitability. For Mr. Grouch to so easily dismiss the loss of metropolitan areas as a inescapable consequence, I wondered just how resolute is the Chinese mindset toward achieving its goals. If the loss of coastal cities, resulting in the relocation of millions, could be dismissed by a youthful man, then what other “inescapable” consequences had been conceded in the minds of the nations youth—those meant to carry the dream into the middle of the 21st century?

A second interchange regarding Chinese conceptions of the future was brief but poignant. As I walked with an excellent bilingual friend of mine, I asked what she thought brought the workers to Beijing. She pointedly said, “let’s ask!” and with that trotted across the street towards a nearby construction site.

As we passed by the living quarters she asked a man poised by the entrance why he had come to Beijing. Surprisingly he responded that he came for “the future.” He did not mean the future of Beijing, or of China, or the building he had spent the last 6 hours working on. He meant the future of his family, and especially that of his children. It is perhaps the strongest of sentiments in this nation: the children should have more and better than the older generations.

This may be a tell tale thought process that has driven, and will continue to drive China’s development. I am curious to know more from other random encounters to more deftly confirm this opinion, but for now it should be considered that this city is home to millions of migrant workers. Workers who have little in terms of shelter or disposable income, but who still work long hard hours, for the ideal of the world the children of China will come to inherit.

As this blog progress we will uncover more mindsets prevalent in conceptualizing the possibilities of the future, and with them we can further unravel the ideals driving China towards the futures.

August -- The Futures Present Opinion: Blue Skies and Blue Screens

2008-08-02T17:24:00.004+08:00

Blue Skies, Blue Screens

If there is one global sound that is more recognized than wind blowing, rain falling, or cars honking it is most likely the start-up jingle of any windows machine. This sound, generally accompanied by a blue screen, has been echoing in offices and homes with increasing rapidity, ushering a new generation of computer users into the digital realm.
Yesterday, I walked down to JianGuanCun, the self proclaimed Silicon Valley of Beijing. In the hands of hundreds of happy customers, computing power walked out the doors, on to the streets, and home to join the information super highway. It is a ritual that is repeated daily, in this district, as China, now the global leader in internet users, progresses.
But other questions revolve around this surge in netizens within the PRC.

Where do these new users go online?

What do they do there?

What services will evolve as new users voice their needs, and China’s growing software industry rises up to meet them?

Where will they be going in 10, 20, or even 30 years down the road?

Will the million of Chinese that have web access in 2038 still be sitting in their homes or the prevalent internet cafes?

Today, as I sit in my apartment and ask these questions to a digital page, I can see from my window the Olympic torch building for the first time in months. After a round of induced rains that began a month ago, the air has cleared enough for me to see the building’s form and its megalithic screen that shines down on the site of the Olympic games. It is the first time that I have been able to recognize it through the haze of Beijing’s skies. Indeed, today, those skies are blue, and speckled with clouds, as the government continues to push towards the perfect beginning for the perfect Olympiad. But just 4 days ago, the smog and haze were so thick, that building less than half a kilometer away were shrouded from sight, and already that temporary blue begins to fade along the horizon.

This city is not unique in China, but rather has garnered the attention of the world media as the Olympic games approach. Those who have lived in China for far longer, and in more places would be, perhaps, a more trustworthy source of information concerning air quality in China’s metropolis centers, but therein lies the problem.

While China touts the world’s largest Internet population, those voices currently online are not always those most effected by the poor air conditions of the city. Most computer users sit in the comfortable and air filtered recesses of their home, offices, or cafes. Many travel to digital worlds for recreation, or chat with friends on popular QQ, or MSN messenger. Increasingly they make purchases and trade online. Do they have any interest in having blue skies grace Beijing daily? While the blue of the computer, and the blue of the skies are similar in shade, which shall have the greatest draw for new China?

August -- The Futures Present Opinion

2008-08-01T12:00:00.003+08:00

Now that August has arrived the blog will begin to change gears. The entire process of laying out the Macro-history of China in June, and a broad current day trend analysis in July, was to prepare the reader for an analysis of the Futures represented at the Olympic games. The games are now one week away, and many things in Beijing have begun to change in preparation for the event.

As promised we will explore some of the cultural trends in China at the moment, but we will do so from an American-in-Beijing perspective. In leading up to the long-awaited 8/8/2008 opening ceremony, we will examine different lifestyles here in the capital city and the cultures that are represented. From the lifestyles of the young, newly-rich, and prosperous to the stories of of migrant workers in the midst of urban adaptation, Beijing cultivates the "new" China and all that encompasses.

It is the author's hope that some of this huge and diverse picture can be gleaned in the days that follow. Not only in the context of the current day, but in regards also to the futures of this city, nation, and planet. Welcome to the dog days of summer, in the year of the rat, from the land of the Dragon! We are ready! ;)

China Trend Analysis IV: Economic Trends, E-commerce

2008-08-01T02:12:00.003+08:00

Part III: E-Commerce in China

As of the posting of this message the total number of Internet users in the People’s Republic of China was totaled at 253 million. This number was reached after a growth of 90% from the previous year, and put the number of Internet users in China as largest in the world.

The short history of China’s Internet usage began in 1995 when China first came “online.” In mid-1995 ChinaNET, a commercial service provider in China, opened up access to the Internet to private individuals, and in the first month about 900 accounts were opened. By the end of 1998 there were nearly one-and-a-quarter million subscribers across four networks, and projected growth was that the number would approach 2.7 million in 2000. In actuality by 2000 China's Internet user population was estimated between 17 and 20 million. By the end of 2005 the Internet population had grown to over 110 million users, and continued rate of growth brings us to the current day number quoted above. Analysts examining this growth are now expecting China’s Internet population to grow above 490 million by the year 2012.

However, to date the Internet has been a dormant economic boom for the PRC. A boom that is starting to stir. In 2000 e-commerce took in sales of approximately $62 million (USD). By 2006, that number had grown to $4.3 billion. In 2007, a total of $8.25 billion was reached, and the Research Institute Data Center of China Internet reports that in the first half of 2008 over $37.5 billion has been spent.

China’s surging online population, coupled with the rapid rise of on-line consumer confidence may make e-commerce in China a leading factor in the future of its economy.

China Trend Analysis IV: Economic Trends, Foreign Investment

2008-07-31T12:37:00.004+08:00

Part II: Foreign Investment

Foreign Investment has given China’s economy much of the monetary and intellectual capital to sustain such high levels of growth. As an integral part of Deng Xiaopeng’s economic reform package, enticing foreign investment through the establishment of SEZs and other policy reforms has played major role in each of the Five-Year plans upon which Chinese economic planners base their work.

Special Economic Zones provide bubbles of relaxed taxation, and fewer bureaucratic hurdles for investors. As of 2008 there were over 2000 SEZs in China, and though they are different in their objectives and thus incentives, they constitute many of the wealthiest areas of mainland China.

In 2005 the total amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached over 70 billion USD, and included international companies like Dell, GM, GE, Boeing, and Cargill. As of the first quarter of 2008, the total amount of FDI in China had already eclipsed 35 billion USD, perhaps indicating a continuing growing trend. However, also in 2005, China released a revised edition of its “Encouraged Industry Catalogue,” which may have changed FDI into China.

The Encouraged Industry Catalogue divides various industries into distinct categories to direct the flow of investment: “encouraged,” “restricted,” and “to-be-eliminated.” These categories are relatively self-explanatory in terms of how foreign Many new industries, many of which are pollution heavy, were added to the “to-be-eliminated” category in China’s policy efforts to encourage “Quality-not-Quantity.” Though speculation still abounds as to the long-term effects of this policy move in regards to FDI, as of the publishing of this post, FDI continues to grow in the PRC.

Of the more than 50 billion USD that have flowed into the PRC in the first half of 2008, a majority source of this income has been from established companies from the Forbes 500 list. There is much speculation concerning this influx of monies in connection with a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan, an move that could have very long term impacts on the Chinese economy.

Another remarkable trend concerning Foreign Direct Investment is also growing – investment by the People’s Republic of China in other developing nations across the globe. It was reported by the People’s Daily in 2007 that the total amount of Chinese Foreign Investment in other countries had exceeded 76 Billion USD in total. It also marked the total amount of outgoing FDI as over $16 billion in 2006 alone, having grown by nearly 35 % from 2005. This money is spread out to some 160 nations, but there is particular investment in Africa, South America, and other parts of Asia.

Investment by China is being spurred by a number of factors, including the continued growth in demand for natural resources, concerns about over-population, and profiteering by China’s industrial leaders. As of 2006, the PRC was investing an approximate $8 billion USD in Latin America. President Hu Jintao publicly announced China’s plan to invest over $100 billion in the region over the next decade, including $20 in Argentina’s infrastructure.

China’s interest in Africa recently garnered the attention of the New York Times with this article. The growing amount of Chinese workers, factories, and investments in Africa have gained the attention of a number of western powers, partly due to the scope of the PRC’s strategy, partly from the practices that have been employed. Some analysts have proposed that China plans to relocate over 300 million people to the continent, and already China utilizes over 70% of Africa’s available resources. The Chinese are being criticized for arms sales, supporting corrupted regimes, and the destruction of local economies.

China Trend Analysis IV: Economic Trends 1970-2008

2008-07-30T22:58:00.003+08:00

Part I: The Growth of China’s Economy 1978-2008

The Manoa School of Futures Studies like to look at long term trends, with 30 years being about the shortest encouraged length to begin a study. The reason for this is the importance that 30 years can have on something the scale of, for example, the global population. In 1978, China was finally able to begin instituting the economic reforms that Deng Xiaopang and top Beijing leaders had been calling for. The encouragement of market economics, and policy reforms that encouraged increases in personal income and consumption began. Thirty years later, China is home to the world’s 2nd largest economy, and has a growing influence in global politics and power.

In the course of 2-3 generations China has radically changed not just its own economy, but the way the entire globe must think about the nation and its policies.

The decade of the eighties was highlighted by a number of economic reforms aimed at providing incentive for people to become more productive. Agricultural reforms, the lifting of market pricing restrictions, and the institution of the concept of private property were the first steps. Paralleling this were policy pushes to encourage foreign investment; not just in money but in managerial and structural ideas that could be implemented to encourage long term economic growth. The highly touted Special Economic Zones were initiated through policy, and China slowly enticed foreign investment to its shores. Strictly by the numbers, China’s economy (measured by GDP) increased from 1980 to 1990 approximately ten fold, from approximately 200 billion RMB per year, to nearly 2000 RMB. What is more amazing is the story of the 15 years following that.

From 1990 to 2005 China’s economy again grew ten-fold, and now in 2008 China has a GDP of over 19 trillion RMB, or about 2.75 trillion USD ( 7RMB to 1USD exchange rate)—the world’s second largest economy.

What happened during the 1990’s and first part of the double-0’s? A number of factors are linked to China’s surge in GDP including the proliferation of the SEZ system, continued reform of the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and monetary policies.

The initial round of SEZ creation included 14 cities, and 3 regions, most of which were coastal. The 1990’s saw that number rise to over 2000 special economic zones, each one tailored in policy and governance to encourage foreign direct investment through a more relaxed bureaucracy, tax incentives, and other motivators. The long-term nature of much of this investment later buffered China from the Asian Market Crisis. A strong and non-fluid currency also helped China build its reputation as a mainstay in regional and global economics.

Additional policy was passed to address the under performance of many SOE’s that were reporting losses during the period. Increased privatization has led to increased competition, more streamlined operations, and a growing wealth of industrial information used in the practice of manufacture and business. The continued privatization has also led to rises in unemployment that are in need of address.

The Chinese Yuan, while currently the focus of a number of debates, is another key factor in the economic boom of China during the 1990’s. By aligning itself to the powerful US dollar during this time period, the Chinese Yuan was able to grow in value as the US economy grew, and weather the Asian Financial Crisis with little impact. The supply of Yuan is tightly controlled by the nation’s economic planning committee; an economic control heavily used by highly centralized governance. Another trend lies in China’s consistent use of this economic control to curb inflation, and direct development.

2005-current

Since the passing of the 11th Five Year Plan by the Chinese Communist Party in 2005, the stated direction of China’s national governance has been towards a “harmonious society.” This term, despite its vagueness, has been allocated by a number of white-papers issued by different branches of the central government, including the Central Military Committee.

In terms of economic growth, the national economy has reported growth of over 10 percent annually since 2003, reporting growth of 11.9% in 2007. Many analysts have differing opinions on the consequences of such a rate of expansion. The official response to such prolonged and rapid development has been a call by the government to limit this growth soon. Growing inflation, per-capita income disparity, and energy concerns have spurred this decision.

China Trend Analysis IV: Economic Trends Intro

2008-07-26T21:08:00.004+08:00

China's economy has been closely watched for the past 35 years. The showcase of the "Asia Miracle," China has seen change in the past century that is difficult to compare to anything. The economic trends that have fueled this transition have been well documented and researched by professional economists, analysts, and academics in more depth than this study or the author's training can adequately pay homage to. However, to speak of China's or even the world's futures visions at this point requires that mention be made of the impact of Chinese economic trends, policies, and movements.

In its bid to become the epitome of world superpowers, China has quietly transformed its economy from a largely agriculturally based system to a highly-powered market system in a matter of decades. By enlisting the 1.3 billion members of its population, China is in the midst of demonstrating to the world what such masses of humanity can accomplish in a short matter of time. Both good, and bad.

This trend analysis will spend a short amount of time analyzing the current trends in the Chinese economy. From the streamlining of industry, to the impact of SEZs, the drying up of foreign investment and the theorized boom in e-industry, the current state of Chinese economics is under more scrutiny than ever. After the Olympic games of 2008, and the global exposure to this nation, increased awareness and intrigue are sure to follow.

China Trend Analysis III: Societal Trends

2008-07-26T21:04:00.003+08:00

Part III: Social Unrest

A RAND testimony published in 2005 reported that China had seen a dramatic rise in the number of “mass incidents” from 8,700 in 1993 to over 86,000 in 2005. A ten-fold rise in 12 years outpaces the economic boom, and further research conducted at the University of Chicago has separated these incidents from being strictly economic in nature.

Additional factors thought to be attributing to China’s rise in civil unrest include the burgeoning legal system, environmental issues, and land management rights. The use of litigation and public courts is a noteworthy trend in China’s evolving system of governance. As the nation’s legal system garners strength and legitimacy amongst the population, grievances will have a forum capable of hearing and taking action. This has an empowering effect on the mindset of the greater public, and could be an underlying cause for rising demonstrations.

The social costs of lackluster environmental policy are also beginning to be realized in the form of organized dissent. As communities mobilize to effect planned development projects around the country, the cry out for issues such as dwindling potable water, clean-air, and toxicity levels from industrial operations. This kind of informed dissent may be linked to increased awareness of environmental impact issues, and online information sources.

Closely related to this are groups of people voicing their frustration over the lack of land management rights that is afforded to most Chinese citizens. As land is generally held on 3 year lease agreements, few Chinese have ownership and rights over the land their abodes are constructed on. Rising affluence in many sectors of Chinese society has resulted in the desire to own land and control its future. Long seen as a source of influenced decision making by regional governance, Land management and private property rights has also become a hot point.

There are a number of factors adding to the reported increasing levels of social unrest in the People’s Republic of China. However, it is important to take these reports in the proper scope. While the number of public protests may be high, China’s population is huge and the official definition of a public protest can be as small as 3 people gathered. Also, while issues like the growing wealth gap continue to be hotly debated, it is important to note that long term effects of China’s economic development plan have yet to play out, and as many as 50 million people are pulled out of poverty every year in the PRC. There are very big changes happening in China in a very short amount of time, and while this change may not be without fault, with much change comes peripheral unease.

China Trend Analysis III: Societal Trends in Demographics

2008-07-22T23:48:00.005+08:00

To speak about China as a single society is difficult to do. Numbers, no matter how convincing, do not tell the tales that live here, the people do, and by and large the stories are truer than not. As the writing of 1.3 billion stories would probably take a workforce of 2.6 billion, it will likely be the case that these stories will not gain widespread circulation, and the living journey of China’s societal development will remain in the chatter at restaurants, shopping malls, and IM boards.

Therefore we will employ statistics, as they give strength to the notion of possibility, rise to urban legends, and fodder for our coming analyses. With this many people, numerous interwoven communities create the landscape of society we call China. By the numbers, we will strive to catch a glimpse of China’s New Society.

Part I: Urbanization

In early 2008, the official number of people living in China’s massive metropolitan centers eclipsed the rural population. Few analysts believe that this will reverse for many years to come, and not without a major impetus for systematic change. The Mckinsey & Company released an in-depth review of China’s urbanization trends as extrapolated through the year 2030. This report asserts that the urban population of China will eclipse 1 billion in this time frame, accounting for two thirds of China’s total estimated population at the time. Much of this influx will be migrant workers, wandering in from the country side in search of better employment and “the good life.”

Interesting information on Urbanization can be found at the International Political Economy Zone, and at UN-HABITAT – a joint research project between Habitat for Humanity and the United Nations. UN-HABITAT studies various human settlement and migration patterns, with forward looking projections for areas around the globe.

The increasing urbanization in China presents pressures on other social factors compounding possible dilemmas.

Part II: The Long-Term Effects of China’s “One Child Policy”

Beginning in 1979 the People’s Republic of China instated the national “One Child Policy” in an effort to control its booming population. China’s population, having grown from 500 million to over 1.3 billion people in the last 50 years, presents the nation’s greatest strength and possible weakness.

The “One Child Policy” has had a debated effect in the population curbing, as stiff fines and repealed social welfare programs are in place as punishment. Many of China’s poorest populations have adhered to the policy – either forgoing multiple children, putting children up for adoption, or resorting to more grim options. However, China’s wealthy populations, to whom monetary punishment is not an insurmountable obstacle, have not adhered to the policy. Additionally, numerous loopholes exist within the policy allowing Chinese residents with special minority status or living abroad to circumvent the “one child” restriction.

The “One Child Policy” has also been linked to other social trends occurring in the PRC. Firstly, the proportion of China’s growing elderly population in regards to its shrinking working age population. Secondly, newer generations of Chinese, many of whom are supported fully by parents and often two sets of grandparents until well after college, stand accused of having low work ethic, and little motivation in nation building. Thirdly, the growing disproportion of China’s male and female populations. Though other effects surely exist, and are potentially as important to China’s future, these three issues will be of main import in discussing the Images of the Future at the Beijing Games.

The first issue is bolstered by the following information: China’s aging and elderly population is currently growing at well over 5 million people per year, and has a total number of approximately 160 million across the nation. A majority of the elderly population (approximately 85+ million people) live in rural areas and are far from the reach of the central government’s social welfare programs. The rate of aging in the population is currently at a peak that is expected to last approximately through 2051. Compounding this problem is the low birth rate in much of the nation. With an annual average of only 13 births per 1000 people, the current population replacement rate is negative. This essentially means that as China’s population continues to get older, there will be a decreasing number of people available to the work force to support growing needs in medical care, and other social welfare programs.

The Second Issue is a highly debated topic that may come to epitomize the idea of generation gap in the years to come. In the generations born since 1979, there has been an increasing number of single children supported by 6 working adults...sometimes more. Many are questioning what the effects of such a support system are in terms of the expectations of these generations. Some believe that such a system has been beneficial to the maturing generations post-1979, allowing educational opportunities free of financial stress, for millions of Chinese. Others expose a darker side of such a system, fearing excessive doting, and spoiling have caused a schism in the societal concept of work value. While older generations were content to earn livable wages with minimal accumulation of material wealth, newer generations may exude an insatiable hunger for material goods, and a standard of living that far exceeds the expectations of the former. This results in a clash of priorities for the younger members of the workforce, and the increasing elderly population noted above. These generational conflicts have yet to play themselves out in full, however, some analysts claim that hard times are ahead for one or both of the generations.

The Third Issue to keep in mind is a growing gap between the numbers of male and female members of the population. Some analysts say that by the year 2020, there will be approximately 1 female capable of child bearing for every 16 males. Due to the standing cultural value placed on male heirs, a disproportionate number of female fetuses have been aborted because of the “One Child Policy.” This results in both an increased “value” of women within society, and an excess of eligible bachelors with the desire for a family. Add to this a trend that is currently being tracked by many social analysts, the rising number of double-income-no-kid couples, and further change is likely to develop in China’s rapidly changing social fabric.

Further articles related to these numbers and trends can be found here:

People’s Daily Online : China’s Elderly population reaches 143 million (2006)
RIETI : China’s Challenge: Employment and Unemployment
China Daily: China faces elderly dilemma (2004)
, and elsewhere online.

China Trend Analysis II : 11 Categories of Advanced Technology, part II

2008-07-18T01:53:00.004+08:00

VI. The final six technologies of the USNSB categorization

The last six categories of Advanced Technologies are high on China’s priority list, and some analysts believe them to be integrated with emphasis into the next Five-year plan of the PRC. Listed below are the category titles, and any trends of note, or anomaly events of interest. Again, we highly encourage readers of the blog to conduct further research, and post comments as you feel necessary.

1) Biotechnology
Biotechnology in the People’s Republic of China is well kept secret, and an expensive one to research on a short time scale. Currently, market reports and analytical data from various groups costs anywhere from $600 - $5000 (USD). Perhaps a paltry sum for most investors looking to get in at China’s potential explosive power in Biotech, but a rather steep set of figures for this poor graduate students. Anyone looking to donate a set of these materials will be given due mention in the pages to follow. And deep gratitude. And invitations to my annual Dubai getaway starting ten years from now ☺.

2) Life Sciences Technology
Development of the life sciences technologies and research in the PRC runs roughly parallel to that of Biotech. Both industries have grown quietly during the past twenty years, but due to low cost of startup, many established global companies are beginning to build life sciences R&D facilities in China, while domestic startups dot the market scene.
The highly touted return of western-trained scientists has become an increasingly hot topic, as the boom in Chinese scientific papers and claims reaches the academic and private research audience. Though a majority of findings seem to be accurate, and well documented, a growing number of faulty research claims, and questionable products has entered the marketplace.
However, the facilities being constructed in China coupled with another series of policy shifts and the accompanying budgets could usher in China’s leadership of global Life Sciences and Biotech industries.

3) Optoelectronics
China’s Optoelectronic Industry has maintained a growth rate of approximately 20 percent over the past 6 years, mainly driven by the sales of displays for computers, mobile technologies, and the automotive industry.
As a producer, and consumer, the PRC continues to pursue better manufacturing techniques, and innovative uses for optoelectronics as part of its 863 programs.

4) Flexible Manufacturing
Due to China’s role as global producer, flexible manufacturing systems and techniques are of increasing importance. For it to maintain its position, and the economic growth that has enabled its rise in wealth and influence, it must continue to be a viable source of the latest manufacturing modes. As rumors of a decline in foreign investment circulate, China is importing large amounts of intellectual property concerning the production of global and local goods.
Flexible manufacturing allows for multiple components to be produced from a single manufacturing line, and beyond that multiple products can issue from a single factory. These products include: sheet metals, circuit boards, plastics, and a host of other necessary components for our everyday lives. With flexible manufacturing, factories can shift identities faster, and in accord with shifting market demands.

5) Weapons
China is one of the top three weapons suppliers for the United States, and considering the United States defense budget this reflects a large revenue stream for the PRC. The state of the weapons industry, and China’s strategic technological push in defense, makes this study of comparable value. While more market and industry based reports may adhere to numeric trends, the relative secrecy surrounding such figures, makes most information suspect concerning how much is being produced, and where that product is going.

Beijing’s policies concerning defense development were fairly well outlined in the first trend analysis of July, but a brief recap of the various technological advances will follow. This report will include some novelty, and various speculative points of view.

Anti-Satellite testing in January of 2007 was successful and legal according to China’s “space” status at that time. China is equipped with Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, that can be armed with nuclear warheads. It is highly regarded that wars of information and asymmetrical attack may be the future of warfare – leading to the idea that Chinese defense department hackers have targeted U.S. strategic grids and communications networks. Due to the relatively advanced state of the biotechnology industry and research in China, it is taken as evident that a chemical weapons R&D department exists, and perhaps has an inventory.

6) Nuclear Technology
China purchases Nuclear Technology from Russia, and other nuclear capable nations. Additional to weapons capabilities, nuclear technologies are being developed for use in China’s proposed nuclear power program. This program looks to build upwards of 30 nuclear power plants by the year 2020. Though these plants would be nearly irrelevant in terms of China’s quickly growing national energy consumption, but they are likely to be built. These nuclear power plants will be based on safer pellet technologies.

China Trend Analysis II : 11 Categories of Advanced Technology, part I

2008-07-13T23:16:00.004+08:00

The U.S. National Board of Science categorizes advanced technologies into 11 distinct fields for organizing scientific inquiry, advancements, and market research. We list and discuss each of these, and examine China’s vested interest in them. China is among the top three importers of U.S. advanced technologies in 5 of these categories, and makes significant purchases in the remaining 6. We will discuss them according to this order.

I. Aerospace

China’s aerospace industry is in the midst of a growth trend, readying to open its AVIC III (Aviation Industry of China) upon the success of the AVIC I and II installments. These installments are the direct result of the restructuring of the government owned enterprises that made up China’s aerospace design and manufacturing pre-1999. The model driving China’s organizational change focuses on development for defense applications, with advances then being adopted and implemented into commercial products.

Developing a series of aircraft with civilian and military applications, the AVIC installations are working on “homegrown” designs for production and use inside China, and possible sales to other nations. While as high as 50% of the necessary components for their designs are imported, these designs are being produced to meet U.S. Aviation standards, perhaps the highest mark to date.

Many analysts believe that China’s Aerospace Industry is just now starting to reap the benefits of the restructure, and will continue to grow over the coming years. Aiding this growth will be the high levels of interest in Space Technologies including satellite launch, participation in national and international manned-space ventures, and defense and communication systems.
This trend is perhaps the most poignant in our analysis of China’s quickly changing technological capabilities in aerospace. The rapidly advancing state of China’s Space program is manifested in satellite technology, manned and un-manned space missions, cutting edge launch capabilities, and a lunar research group.

China’s increasing inventory of operational satellites ranges from meteorological research, to high resolution imagery, to increasingly accurate global positioning capabilities. China currently has 67 payloads in orbit, with 10 additional satellites to join the skies in 2008. This is up from 9 satellites in orbit as of 2003. Their navigation and tracking system, Beidou, is undergoing refinements to give it GPS like accuracy. They also have deployed a SAR radar system, and plan on launching an 8-satellite strong array in the future.

Their launch capabilities are undergoing major transformations as well. The standing Long March series of rockets is soon to be shelved in lieu of the upcoming (but yet unnamed) launch system consisting of 120-ton and 50-ton engines that use non-toxic nd non-pollutant fuels. These new rockets will help China pursue its lunar mission, to deploy a survey robot to the moons survey. Additionally, these rockets will allow the PRC to participate in the International Space Station, and conduct independent space research. China’s currently has signed treaties of cooperation with 15 nations, and the European Union, pledging peaceful development and fair use claims to space.

China, in some analysts’ minds, has been very public about the commercial and international applications of its booming space industry, while continually downplaying the technologies military use. This has garnered a variety of responses, most of which cast a positive light on the PRC’s continuing space efforts.

II. Advanced materials

Generally regarded as materials that enhance or make possible the use of other advanced technologies, the NSB gives optical fiber cable, semiconductor materials, and videodisks as examples of this category. We must also consider newly developed polymers for aerospace, China’s booming architecture and automotive industries, and rapidly advancing Information Technology market and industry.

The PRC has seen continuing and significant growth in all major advanced materials markets, including non-metal materials (polymers and other advanced chemicals), advanced metals and alloys, and nano-level developed materials. Project 863 is government initiated program focused on the development of all technologies that wil support the industrial and economic strength of China. The development of “indigenous design” advanced materials and manufacturing techniques is one critical component of project 863.

Research done by Richard Applebaum analyzes China’s advances in the nano-sciences fields, many of which have end products or applications in the advanced materials sector. A power point of this research, as prepared for a Forbes live webcast is presented here. Some regard the nano-sciences as the next transitional technology breakthrough, whose impact can be far reaching and is currently unpredictable.

Further information available:
Ministry of Science and Technology (PRC)

III. Electronics

China’s current Five-Year plan is highly focused on advancing the state of all sciences and technologies, and especially those that would bolster China’s industrial production capacity. The PRC is one of the world’s largest investors in R&D, as it continues to push its agenda of “informatization” to remain competitive in the global production of electronics. This output includes throngs of end-user products, and a growing number of goods for industrial or advanced IT applications.

As China continues to be one of the world’s largest suppliers of electronic hardware, and consuming a majority of U.S. electronic exports, it seems the state of the art of electronic production is settling in China. This trend continues to have an impact on the social fabric of China, as well as setting the standards for China’s vision of success. From integrated circuits to capacitors, “electronics” continue to be in high demand for the PRC.

Again, by developing advanced manufacturing process, China is pushing to develop its own designs of electronic exports necessary in the development of end user products. This push comes in concert with China’s efforts to become a more sustainable and eco friendly producer—a challenge to be discussed later.

IV. Information and Communications Technologies

Again we reiterate the push of China towards “informatization” in its military, industry, and greater social fabric. As each five-year plan unfurls within the PRC, China’s momentum becomes more evident. A new strategy or course of development denotes a massive shift in government financial support, human resources, and capital from other sources.

Therefore, China’s growth as an importer of ICT technologies, and its continued advance as an innovation center for said technologies comes as no surprise in combination with China’s current development model. However, China currently supplies over 40% of all U.S. imports in this same field, and has grown steadily in the manufacture of goods in this category.

The PRC now has more active online internet users than any other nation with approximately 210 million or more. This puts China’s Online community above all but 4 of the world’s nations in total population, with an amazing growth rate. Over the past 5 years China’s internet population has grown from approximately 35 million users—an increase of about 700%. Of increasing interest is the nearly 60 million subscribers to wireless internet connectivity through a mobile provider.

V. Software

Computer Software is an increasingly important product to all high-tech nations and societies, and china again has continued to surge in its production and export in this category. As of the end of June 2008, PRC software companies have become the fourth largest producer of software in the world, and a majority of these companies are “homegrown.”

In management software, an essential to the growing market economy of China, almost 60 of the top 100 computer software firms are Chinese owned and operated. The biggest sales for these homegrown companies happen within China, but a growing market does exist for exported software.

As in other technology and industry sectors, China’s growing stake in the future developments of these technologies allows the engineers, and policy makers of the PRC to hold more sway in international meetings aimed at standardization. This is made poignant by the Chinese launch of many standards, codecs, and formats that are homegrown and developed.

With the rising popularity of wireless and mobile communications, and its heavy usage in Asia, this standards will play an increasingly important role in the future directions that global software companies must take. As mobile applications of technology become more prevalent and diverse in function, the nations building the most popular software will have an increasing sphere of influence in the direction setting of the technologies standards for future developers.

China Trend Analysis II : Technology Blooms in the PRC

2008-07-13T23:14:00.003+08:00

Introduction

“In addition to the broad array of technology products sold to Japan, the latest data show that China is among the top three customers in aerospace, advanced materials, software, electronics, and information and communications technologies.”
– National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2008

According to the National Science Board of the United States of America, the five areas mentioned above represent half of the ten total categories assigned by this organization to monitor advances in markets, developments, and innovation in “technology.” China accounted for almost 10% of all U.S. exports in advanced technologies, the highest of any nation in the world.

Technology is one of the words that will makes everyone’s life easier, when it falls out of popular use. Deciding what technology is and is not is a rapidly changing, and debatable topic. Furthermore, the unknown uncertainty revolving around many technological deployments continue to make scientific advancement a heated topic of debate. Advanced technologies are touted as having the ability to change the fabric of the world we inhabit at any time. Affecting our personal, national and global societies, this catchall term is still very important to discussion and understanding of our world. And China seems to be building, buying, and bolstering “technology” as fast as it possibly can.

We will examine China’s consumption, development, and usage of advanced technologies based on the 11 categories put forth by the U.S. National Science Board. We will also examine topics distinctly related to technological advancements, and China effect on them, namely, global standards and industrial Intellectual Property.

China Military Trends: Bulletpoint Review

2008-07-10T20:11:00.006+08:00

1 - The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is in the midst of a streamlining and modernization of its military forces.
2 - The People's Republic of China (PRC) officially employs a national defense policy based on peaceful cooperation, and mutual development.
3 - Current PLA policy is aimed at "informationization" of each wing of its armed forces. This includes "cyber-warfare" tactics.
4 - PRC is promoting development in Space technologies, including defense capabilities. Its test in 2007 display its ability to eliminate low-orbit satellites.
5 - PRC played a leading role in the formation of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO), now including 7 states with full membership, and an additional 5 observer states.
6 - U.S. views ties between economic stability and military development in the PRC as potentially limiting and dangerous in the future.
7 - Global view of PLA activity is a quiet topic, though some of PRC's neighboring nations are in territorial disputes with China.

China Trend Analysis I : Military Development in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

2008-07-10T20:02:00.005+08:00

Part II: China’s official policy and global views
China’s military, also known as the People’s Liberation Army, does not fall under the direct control of the state. Rather, it represents the armaments and personnel of the Communist Party, and reports to the CPC’s Central Military Commission (CMC). Though a state Ministry of Defense does exist within the national government, it has no real power in controlling the PLA, its deployment, or its strategic development.
Official military policy and strategies issued by the Chinese government are therefore extensions of the communist regime and the ideals and philosophies born therein. It’s stated purpose in it last official white paper release concerning military development is surmised here:

“At the new stage in the new century, we will take the scientific development outlook as an important guiding principle for the building of national defense and military affairs, vigorously advance the revolution in military affairs with Chinese features, and strive to realize an all-round, coordinated and sustainable development in our country's national defense and military capabilities.” – China National Defense in 2006

This quotation is directly followed by an outline of China’s push to update its military into a modern force. A briefly summary of what this entails is below.

I. Ground Forces
The PLA’s ground forces currently stand at approximately 2.3 million members. Estimates state an additional million soldiers could be called in from reserves. Policy has raised the levels of training intensity, modern technological equipment, and flexibility of organization in the PLA, while concurrently lowering their membership considerably. Their stated intension is to make “progress towards the goal of being proper in size, optimal in structure, streamlined in organization, swift and flexible in command, and powerful in fighting capacity.”

II. Air Force
China’s Air Force is also modernizing at a rapid rate through cooperation with foreign nations, the purchasing of outside technologies, and most importantly the growth of “indigenous” innovation. They are currently outfitting many of the dated components of their air fleet as pilotless reconnaissance and combat vehicles. Also, a number of fighter-bombers and other multi-functional aircraft bastion China’s aviation inventory, including the indigenously developed Jian-10 fighter.

III. Naval Power
As China’ become more concerned with the security of their shipping lanes, they continue to modernize their Naval armaments with rapidity. Some investment has come in the form of procurement and study of Russian carrier and submarine technologies. However, China’ has also been very successful in developing their own craft including the Shang-, Jin-, Han-, Xia-, Song-, and Yuan- submarine class. These represent both diesel-electric and nuclear powered vessels, some of which have the capability of carrying parts of China’s nuclear arsenal. They have also developed many technology upgrades for their surface fleet including improved scanning and targeting from a distance, and anti-air warfare capabilities.

IV. “Informationization”
Secrecy abounds over the PLA’s push to “informationize” the entirety of their armed forces. However, this increase in information technology capability, has also opened the door to defensive strategies aimed at the communications and logistical capabilities of opposing forces. Termed an ”assassins mace” in some PLA journals, these strategies are aimed at the networks of information, both accessible and alterable, from a computer. This blanket term is also used time and again throughout the nation’s 2006 statement on military affairs in regards to the upgrading of technologies deemed necessary in winning a war between computers.

V. Other
China’s official strategy also outlines plans for reform in the civil service aspect fo their armed forces. The continual development of the Judicial System will be focused on the refinement and addition of new laws. These laws are aimed at making “… a military legal system… take shape which covers multiple aspects, and is coherent, scientific, closely knit and well-designed.”
Additionally, changes within the Institutionalized Education structure of the PLA have required the closing of some schools, and the bolstering of other more successful programs. The PLA operates 67 institutes of higher education, 41 of which are authorized to award doctorate degrees, and 61 of which award masters degrees.
Technologically, China has been heavily active in Space systems development. Plans for additional manned space operations, continued collaborations with the international space community, and development of a fully capable satellite deployment operation lead China’s priorities in this sector. Their ASAT test in January of 2007 demonstrated that they are actively pursuing defenses against surveillance satellites already in orbit.

Global View Brief

Overall, the PRC proclaims that it is in pursuit of a peaceful and cooperative development economically, socially, and globally. Their military stratagem are based on this theory, and the CMC views all modernization efforts as appropriate measures in bolstering national security and defense against outside aggressors.

The United Nations, European Union, and other international organizations are currently quiet about China’s growing military strength. While individual neighbor states have territorial disputes with the PRC, there are no consolidated forces standing in opposition to China’s military moves or policies.

China currently holds a permanent set on the United Nations Security Council (currently the only Asian representative on the panel), and with that seat veto power. Additionally, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a partnership between China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, is playing an increasingly significant role in the security of the Central Asian Region, and thusly the global oil trade.

Related Text:
China's National Defense 2006 (official document of PRC)

China Trend Analysis I : Military Development in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

2008-07-06T23:43:00.005+08:00

Part I: Popular United States views of China’s Military

As the largest military force in the modern world, the United States keeps a wary eye on the quickly developing military & defense agenda of the PRC. Thus, the first part of our investigation into the apparent trends in China’s growing military power will rely heavily on U.S.-led studies into the pace, alignment, and focus of said growth. This article will present a summary of a number of opinions and forecasts as drawn from the U.S. Congress, the RAND Corporation, U.S. National Security Agency documents, among others.

China’s military development over the past 15 years has been as rapid and determined as its economic growth. In fact, the expanded military budget of the PRC closely follows the same trend curve as the nation’s rising GDP index. Though many of the actual figures surrounding defense spending in the PRC are not realized, the data under analysis is based on inferred costs and known purchases by the PRC. From the early 1990’s onwards, the PRC has recorded an annual overall economic growth of approximately 10%. During the same years, military spending has also increased by 10% per year, and stands at around $USD 140 billion for the year of 2008.

These distinctly paralleled figures lead to a number of questions concerning the course that China will follow during in the coming years. Firstly, what will the response be in defensive budgeting due to any abnormalities in economic growth by the PRC? Secondly, to what extent is the military power being amassed by the PRC intended to protect its economic growth trend, and to what means will that protection extend itself? Thirdly, to what degrees is the economic growth contingent on the sphere of military influence the PRC is able to exert?

In answer to the first question, expert opinion in the United States of America seems to revolve around the idea that any divergences in economic growth will result in system wide changes, inclusive of military budgeting. Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, an analysis prepared by the Office of the Secretary of Defense for the U.S. Congress, states that other economic pressures may play a role in the continued funding for China’s military development. These factors include aging population trends, urbanization of the populous, health-care costs and social welfare programs, and under performing bank loans.

This publication also begins to address the PRC military development strategies in regards to resource allocation. It further offers analysis of official policy concerning the deployment and use of military strength to secure China’s national interests. As the world’s largest consumer of grain, coal, steel, and meat, and second only to the United States in oil consumption, China has on of the most robust and diverse economies of the world. Secure shipping lanes, access to natural resources, and peaceful relations with neighboring nations are among the top priorities to military policy makers. These factors have guided the development of strategic bases across from Taiwan, the building of a modern naval power to police the Straits of Malacca and South China Sea, and continual territorial negotiations with India, Bhutan, and other nations.

In address to the last of these questions, U.S. analysts generally conclude that China is still a growing military power, though a quickly advancing one. As a result of this status, it is generally perceived that China’s military has yet to reach the capacity necessary to carry out long-term military engagements from a distance. However, as China fortifies its ability to protect its territorial claims, and secure its geographic position against outside influence, it has recently begun embarking on a number of technological acquisitions enabling long range engagements. Its push to “informatize” its military policy includes strategies aimed at causing disjunction in the logistics, communications, and other vital networks to opposing forces.

To better understand these assessments please refer to the
Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2008,
Forecasting China’s Military Spending through 2025, and
Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense.

July -- Current Trends in China

2008-07-06T23:18:00.004+08:00

In studying the PRC, analysis will be directed in five distinct categories: Military, Socio-Political, Economic, Technological, and Environmental. These categories are exceedingly intertwined due to a lack of statistical data from the PRC, the disparity in opinion concerning these trends, and the very nature of these root categories. Therefore, trends analysis stated herein should also be held under scrutiny and each could be highly effected by changes in the others.

Broad level analysis such as offered by this blog, should be considered further contextualization for the "Images of the Future" analysis conducted in August from the Olympic venue.

June -- History and Futures

2008-06-28T11:27:00.005+08:00

The first stage in a Futures Workshop is a general discussion of the History surrounding the entity under review. This entity could be an industry, organization, or position. Futures Studies is intended to be applicable across a wide variety of themes, beginning with a structurally flexible framework that can be molded to fit the needs of the study.

The Beijing 2008: One World, One Dream. Whose? blog site is intended to be such a study, focused on analyzing the various visions of the future that surface at the XXIX Olympiad. In order to properly frame much of this analysis, an overview of the context in which this analysis takes place is necessary.

In July, this blog will embark upon a structured analysis of the current trends within the People's Republic of China. During this month we will focus our attention on economic, political, social, technological, and theoretical trends currently at hand in the PRC. However, in order to properly understand how these trends have emerged, and how they can be interpreted, a brief glance at China's rich 5000 year history is necessary. The month of June is intended to be just that: A 30-day recap of the Chinese history.

Striving for objectivity, all comments, suggestions, or criticism in these efforts, are welcome, and it is hoped that you continue to read throughout July and August for another view of the One Dream Games, the People's Republic of China, and our collective Futures.

Thanks!!!!

Post-Mao in the PRC (People's Republic of China)

2008-06-27T22:55:00.003+08:00

Deng Xiaoping

Mao's death tempered the cult of personality that enveloped the man, and the Communist Party of China (CPC) for nearly 30 years. When the political dust had finally settled in 1979, one of Mao's strongest rivals, Deng Xiaoping, had consolidated a powerful cadre intent on the nurturing of a modern China to blossom. Economic reform and an outreach to the international community are widely regarded as the legacy that Deng Xiaoping has left on the People's Republic of China (PRC).

The economic reform platform promoted by Deng was based on four key sectors: Agriculture, Industry, Science and Technology, and the Military. By reforming the economy as a "socialist capitalist economy," a newly structured series of state-owned enterprises, often built from the local level upwards, was made possible. By encouraging local arms of the government to act in their own best interest and share profitable plans with the nation at large, economic development first built a strong foundation on which to reach upwards.

Deng Xiaopeng was also very active in building positive relations with the international community. This new policy of openness, coupled with the Special Economic Zones (SEZs), channeled vast amounts of foreign investment into China's developing economy. New trade partnerships, and a policy of increasing transparency helped to establish China on the world stage. Additionally, he helped to negotiate the peaceful return of Hong Kong and Macau from foreign control.

Jiang Zemin

Beginning in 1990, Jiang Zemin served in the highest positions of the Chinese government. During his tenures as President of the People's Republic of China, the General Secretary for the CPC, and Chair of the CPC and PRC Military Commissions, Jiang was oversaw the continued implementation of economic reforms cross the nation.

Though critics are divided in addressing Jiang's personal contributions to Chinese policy and development, the nation was changing rapidly due to the reforms in place. Some say that Jiang's largest contribution to China was stability and adherence to the measures implemented by Deng Xiaoping and his economic reform specialists. Maintaining an average growth rate of 8%, the economy was able to weather even the Asian Financial crisis (ca. 1997), and exceed many global expectations.

Other analysts decree that while China's economic growth was continued during this time period, Jiang and his fellow party members may have failed to address some of the imbalances that grew out of Deng policy. It is further asserted that some of these initial discrepancies have since grown to be major schisms in the Chinese social fabric, and could undermine the developing nation in the future. Economic disparity between the Eastern seaboard, and western provinces, the growing gap between rich and poor segments of society, political corruption, and environmental disregard are now coming under discussion within the CPC and state policy makers. It has yet to be seen what the newest leadership will do to address these problems.

Hu Jintao

Beginning in 2003, the CPC and the PRC began another power transition at its highest levels. Jiang, peacefully stepping out of the Presidency and General Secretary of the CPC, promoted Hu Jintao as the new President of the PRC, and leader of the Communist Party. Some believe that Jiang's intention has been to divert media attention away from himself as social problems come to light within the PRC.

Hu Jintao was able to consolidate the three main power positions of the PRC as of this year; President of the state, General Secretary of the Party, and Chairman of the CPC Military Commission. He is now regarded as the premier political director for the PRC, and speculation abounds concerning the uncertainty still enshrouding China.

Mao's China

2008-06-27T20:28:00.006+08:00

After fighting for and against the Kuomintang in the 1930’s and 1940’s Mao and the CPC army finally gained control of the Chinese government in 1949 and began the current regime of the People’s Republic of China. From 1949 until his death in 1976, Mao sat atop the Chinese government, issuing edicts, giving speeches, and bringing about a new vision for the Chinese land, people, and culture.

Though much of his legacy has come under fierce debate by Eastern and Western historians alike, this historical recap will attempt to shy away from these debates as much as possible…for now.

Various political highlights speckle Mao’s tenure as leader of Communist China. Here we will briefly list them and the intentions that drove them. We will also, VERY briefly discuss the impacts of each.

1) The Great Leap Forward

Though this policy implementation is highly regarded as a failure in many regards, it foundation and repercussions should be understood.

Following the first of the five-year plans issued to bring the whole of China into a Communist social order similar to those of the Soviet Union, "The Leap" was intended to develop China's agricultural and industrial sectors in tandem. Collectivization in the rural areas into mega communes consisting of thousands of households, and the redistribution and sometimes complete abolition of privately held land set the scene for such a bold move.

The state called for a doubling of steel production in one year, and took many of the rural agricultural workers from their duties in the fields to build the backyard steel industry. 1958's disastrous crop output was followed by a 3-4 year famine, and for sources for the PRC were very limited. Urban demand for available food channeled available resources away from the rural areas, and resulted in a mass starvation. Resulting starvation led to death tolls that are estimated between 14-40 million.

To further underline the great failure of this project, much of the produced steel was of a low grade and unfit for real industrial growth.

The resulting negative impression of Communism and Mao's leadership abilities led to his withdrawal from the position of State Chairman of the PRC, and the public eye. However, he maintained his position of Chairman of the CPC, and continued to influence the face and direction of the Chinese political topology.

2) The 100 Flowers Campaign

This brief period of encouraged open criticism and opposition to official state policy was initially lauded by the intellectual and peasant classes. However, some consider this campaign as a strategic enticement by Mao and the CPC to uncover center of dissent and possible unrest. Many critics who voiced their discontent found themselves stripped of political rank, and often dispersed to the countryside or executed. It ran concurrent to the Great Leap Forward.

3) The Cultural Revolution

This was Mao's final campaign as the voice of Communism, and the reformation of Chinese society. Officially this set of reforms lasted only from 1966 until 1969, however, many Chinese and Western analysts alike state that the policies and movements propagated by the early stages of the Cultural Revolution would remain intact and widely powerful until the Chairman's death.

Drawing strength from the iconic status that he had culminated during the early part of his political and military career, Mao began to orchestrate a purging of Chinese culture aimed at political ideals and entities that he termed backwards and detrimental. Through the CPC he was able to form a nation-wide organization known as the Red Guard to carry through this final political aims.

The Red Guard, following the edicts and statements of Mao Zedong, violently moved through the intellectual, political, and business sectors, eliminating any voices opposed to Mao's Communist platform. Millions of member strong, The Red Guard stood outside the reach of state police, and, it is argued, outside of the control of anyone save Mao.

Through 1976, The Cultural Revolution effectively silenced all opposition to the CPC, and closely monitored all aspects of culture for anti-communist content. This included the performing arts, literature, mass-media, academia, and party approved documents. These policing efforts were not limited to domestically developed content, but were (and many argue still are) pointed at information coming into the PRC.

Repercussions of the above

The effects of Mao's tenure as State Chair and Chairman of the CPC are still widely felt in much of Chinese society. The ideals he promoted, and restriction of opposing viewpoints are still widely held as positive aspects of China's modern face. The effective dissembly of all political factions opposed to the CPC has left the government in a political monopoly, the effects of which are under heated critical review even today. The deaths of millions, even in a land of billions, still leave penetrating scars.

Positive effects of the Chairman's implementation of policy include national healthcare programs, free education, and a supple social struture that was ready for the various changes that have occured in the past 30 years. High literacy, lower poverty, and an invigorated social spectrum of 1.3 billion people remain testaments to Mao's "Revolutionary" vision.

Finally, the eyes of Mao still watch over the entrance to the forbidden city in the heart of China's political heart.

Warlords, The 2nd Sino-Japanese War, and the rise of the CPC

2008-06-26T16:43:00.003+08:00

Warlords, The Second Sino-Japanese War

From 1916 to1936 a number of different power centers struggled with one another over the remnants of the briefly lived Republic of China. The Kuomintang (KMT), upholding the nationalism of it charter, held power in much of the South, while the North Beiyuan government was consumed by internal strife.

The Treaty of Versailles, following World War I, served as an ignition point for the growing dissent within the working classes, students, and small business owners. Dissatisfaction with the Allied Forces treatment of China during wartime reparations, led to a surge in cultural re-evaluation, and created the small but popular Communist Party of China (CPC).
The CCP and the KMT joined forces to attack northwards both militarily and politically. Known as the First Unified Front, this partnership was short lived due to conflicts between secondary agendas. However, despite its short life, the First Unified Front was able to accomplish a new power structure in the North, and begin the stabilization of the region.

A complicated civil war followed the First Unified Front – a war that encompassed the second Sino-Japanese War, WWII, and ended in the People’s Republic of China. This Civil War between the forces of the KMT and the CPC, was as much an ideological battle as it was a militaristic effort, and various foreign powers also contended for the land and people of the China.

The Second Sino-Japanese War became a major turning point for the national direction of China, fusing, though temporarily and superficially, divisions between Nationalism and Communism. These two political and military entities faced a common enemy in ousting the Japanese forces from mainland China, and strategic decisions made by both parties eventually led to the Kuomintang’s defeat by the CPC.

The devastating attacks of Japan’s highly sophisticated armed forces, have left long lasting marks on China’s perception of its Island neighbor. With total casualties being estimated between 20 million and 35 million, property losses at nearly $400 billion (USD, 1937), and nearly 95 million refugees, it remains a vicious scar in the minds of many.

Finally, the National Revolutionary Army of the KMT was so severely diminished during this war, that the Communist Party of China under the leadership of Mao Zedong was able to wrestle away political power and establish the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

For more information on this convoluted time period of Chinese history, the truths and impacts of which are still becoming clear today, please follow some of these links:

Wikipedia: Timeline of China’s History – Modern Period
History of China
China Knowledge
China History Forums

Sun Yat Sen and the Kuomintang

2008-06-25T00:29:00.005+08:00

We will preface each of the following sections with a link to the Wikipedia timeline for Modern China. The intricacies and power struggles that surround the building of a unified China under a single governing body have been continuous since the fall of the Qing Dynasty, and understanding that complexity is not something that this blog is intent upon. What we do hope to provide is brief glance at the various power bases (foreign and domestic), ideologies, and governance techniques utilized during the past century.

Sun Yat Sen

Best known for the founding of the Kuomintang nationalist movement, and as the leader of the Xinhai Revolution, Sun Yat Sen was dedicated to bring forth his vision of the new China. Though not single handedly responsible for the orchestration of the overthrow of the Qing dynasty and Imperial rule, Sun Yat Sen is regarded as the figurehead for Chinese Nationalism, and the establishment of the Republic of China.

Sun Yat Sen and with the help of many foreign and domestic Chinese, and foreign citizens (mainly Japanese), began orchestrating uprisings across Southern China as early as 1895. Armed revolution against the Qing and its army, was difficult, and these forces were defeated often. However, even from exile the persistent Sun Yat Sen continued to train and dispatch leaders to communities in mainland China, gather support from foreign sources, and bring Chinese nationals in Malay and Singapore into the nationalist fold.

After many failed attempts, the Wuchang of 1911 was uprising was successful, and within 48 hours from its initiation, the 3 major cities of Wuhan province were under the control of a new political power, and hailing to a new entity -- "The Republic of China." As the South of China slowly began to declare a new form of government, the Qing Dynasty in the North began their campaign to retain what power they could.

Electing their top general, Yuan Shikai, as the Prime Minister of the Imperial Cabinet, the Qing attempted to solidify their military power, and recoup their losses to the revolutionaries. Shikai had different plans and began secretly negotiating with forces in the South and outside of China to arrange for the peaceful abdication of the Empire.
The Abdication of the Qing Empire was formally carried out in 1912, leaving Yuan Shikai as provisional president over the north of China, Sun Yat Sen remained president of the Southern provincial government until April of that year when he resigned his presidency to Yaun Shikai and established the Republic of China as a unified nation.
The celebrations were short lived, due mainly to Yuan Shikai’s power lust, and the instability that often follows violent revolutions. By 1916 the
“Republic of China” was merely a title as power struggles across the land plunged the nation into turmoil. Governors and their provincial armies began vying for power once Shikai’s dictatorial methods and bid for a new monarchy became clear.
This widespread violence and instability would not end for another 35 years, including the second Sino-Japanese War.

Wikipedia - Early Modern China :
Sun Yat Sen
XinHai Revolution

Richard Hooker’s Work

Enter the 20th Century

2008-06-23T01:05:00.007+08:00

So that about neatly wraps up the +4000 year-story of the people and land of the middle kingdom. There are many fighting to make it a neat, clean, and linear progression leading up to the current day. Others struggle to bring light to the unknown periods of turbulence, disunity, and variety buried in the annals of this land's history.

Some would argue that this imperial legacy has had little impact on China's development over the course of the last century. With the end of the dynastic tradition, and the founding of the People's Republic of China, political and social upheaval have resulted in the modern infrastructure. The next week's posts will focus on the transitioning of governance, economy, and social structure in the P.R.C. during the past century.

We will explore events that have molded Chinese policy and opinion, and some of the trends that have been critical in China's rise to the current day. How have policies in international relations and domestic politics helped to mold the unified P.R.C.? Economic reforms have impacted the structure of business, but have they had ramifications in other portions of society (culture, urbanization, etc.)?

What is the new political economy of the 1.? billion people currently inhabiting the P.R.C. and where did it come from during the upheavals of the last 100 years. And furthermore, are there landmarks, pointers or trend lines that can be helpful in our examination of futures possibilities for China and the world.

China's Dynastic History -- Qing Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:20:00.002+08:00

The Qing Dynasty

The last dynasty of the Chinese Imperial period, The Qing dynasty was generally a time of sorting and redistributing power amongst the new Manchurian leadership, the last vestiges of the Ming and other Han-Chinese, and vying with the influx of powerful European nations hungry for trade.

Though the Qing rulers were able to hold a succession of power, and establish a quasi-stable form of governance, the constant threat of rebellion and outside invaders pocked the dynasty. Human and material resources were spent on maintaining the region under dynastic rule, resulting in little development, occasional famine, and growing civil unrest.

The European maritime powers of Spain, Britain, Portugal, and others were intent on expanding trade within China. The Qing, on the other hand, repeatedly rebuked offerings and treatises aimed at promoting such trade. Instead, the conservative government declared that outside nations should pay tribute to China. This action provoked the Opium Wars and a series of other conflicts that exposed the under-development of China’s defensive technologies, and forced the nation to open up its reluctant trade routes.

The weakened Qing rulers were no longer able to support the fragile infrastructure they had built, and by the end of the 19th century a number of civil rebellions had taken place. These rebellions eventually succeeded in ending the Qing Dynasty, and with it the Chinese Imperial Era.

Much more information exists about the various artistic and cultural developments of the time, as well as the civil instability that was to account for the formation of the republic system of governance. Please follow the following links to more information, or submit your own suggestions:

Wikipedia Entry
Chinavoc
China History Forum

China's Dynastic History -- Ming Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:19:00.004+08:00

Ming Dynasty

Perhaps one of the most famous of all Chinese dynasties, the Ming Dynasty witnessed another shift in the cultural and economic richness. The first long term trade relationships with Europe, a stable system of governance, and a revitalization of internal trade routes helped the Ming Dynasty of flourish.

Due to the increased trade with Europe, the Ming Dynasty saw little in terms of innovative scientific or mathematic work during the period. However, their adoption of European mechanical and hydraulic engineering practices allowed their own development of technologies. Similarly, Western practices in astronomy like the Ptolemaic model and telescope technology further augmented China’s own knowledge base.

The development of gunpowder based military technologies was also a combined effort between the East and West. Multi-stage rockets, land and water mines, and the first hand held cannon’s were all jointly developed by Chinese and European minds. The speed at which these innovations were shared was like nothing else seen in the world to date, which led to gunpowder’s quick adoption around the world as military technology.

Socio-politically, the Ming dynasty witnessed interesting trends in the rise of two of the four major class divisions. The scholar-class was elevated to new positions of power as governors outside of the capital, Nanjing. Governors, elected on the basis of examination results, were given authority to ensure the fulfillment of national policy, as well as the power to instate some local codes. They were also bequeathed with a large amount of wealth for the development of their jurisdiction.

The Merchant class, though traditionally seen as a lower echelon of society in preceding dynasties, saw a fascinating evolution into powerful societal components. Their ability to acquire materials and wealth was relied upon heavily by the Scholarly governors. As merchant’s learned how to levy this power, their influence in regional and even national development became greater. For the first time, historical records began to take notice of their contributions, and the Merchant’s were able to climb into the elite of Chinese society.

Much more information can be found online, and your local library. We highly recommend using BOTH of these resources for a more detailed look at the famous Ming dynasty. Below are some additional links to help get you started:

Wikipedia Entry
University of Southern California: East Asian Library
The Ming Tombs (pdf)
China History Forum

China's Dynastic History -- Yuan Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:19:00.003+08:00

Yuan Dynasty

The famous reign of the Mongolian Empire over the land of China marked the first and only time that the civilization was subjugated to foreign rule. As such, some changes were made to the social order of China, beginning with the establishment of a monarchy with Kublai-khan and his successors as supreme ruler. Han governors lost their place of power, changes to the taxation system, and a new caste system were also put in place.

The new social order placed all Mongols as first priority throughout the empire for positions of governance and power. Subsequently, non-Hans from other parts of Asia, were appointed positions to help the Mongol rulers maintain their positions. This dispersion of the Han power base did not stop the development of China, and numerous projects, such as the building of modern day Beijing (then known as Dadu) and an expansion of the agricultural system through irrigation enlargement were seen through.

The expansive Mongol empire, reaching as far s the Middle East and parts of Europe brought a great cultural exchange to Han-China, and opened up the minds of both the East and the West for the sharing of unique sciences and techniques. This cultural exchange, and the Mongols emphasis on scientific and religious education, played a major role in the development of China in the coming Ming Dynasty.

The Yuan Dynasty’s downfall is noted as being the result of internal conflict and power struggles among the Mongol elite. Ousted from Han-China, the Mongol leaders retreated north, and maintained the seal of the Yuan dynasty for another 200+ years. This portion of the “dynasty” is not recognized by most historians, however, it was not until the seal of this dynasty was relinquished that the Qing Dynasty rule would become absolute in 1688.

Further information exists in abundance concerning the Yuan Dynasty and the Mongol rule over China and much of East and Central Asia. Some References include:

Wikipedia Entry
Metropolitan Museum of Art
Minnesota State University – E museum

China's Dynastic History -- Tang Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:18:00.004+08:00

Tang Dynasty

Following the harsh, but unifying rule of the Sui Dynsty, the Tang dynasty was to rule for the next 300 years (barring one interruption of 15 years). This dynasty is marked by historians for the cultural richness and development that was made possible by such an extended period of unity.

Trade in goods and culture expanded greatly due tot eh newly constructed Great Canal, which opened up China’s waterways. The “Silk Road,” rich in trade between the Middle East and Central Asia, was also of great importance as Turkish soldiers were heavily recruited into the Chinese ranks. With new influxes of exotic goods, the Chinese social fabric was again inundated with new creative and artistic styles and techniques, further increasing the diversity of the arts.

Though this Dynasty was also to fall to rebellion and social unrest, the hundreds of years of prosperity were to have a lasting effect in many ways. Political reform, especially the unified (if stratified) legal code, was an ideal to be held through the remainder of China’s dynasties. The Tang additionally attempted a national census, using low tax rates as incentive for households to report. Official estimates of the time were approximately 59 million peoples, while many historians speculate that nearly 80 million inhabitants existed by the end of the dynasty.

Further information can be found at the following websites or other sources.

Wikipedia Entry
China History Forum
China.org.cn

China's Dynastic History -- Turbulence, Part II

2008-06-14T15:18:00.003+08:00

The Song and Liao Dynasties, and all the king's men

After the Tang dynasty, and very briefly lived Second Zhou Dynsty (690-705AD), China was once again divided into a number of separate regional disputes. Two major powers were to arise and overlap each other in this portion of China’s timeline: the Liao dynasty and the Song Dynasty.

The Song dynasty ruled over the Eastern Seaboard of modern day China proper from the years 960-1279 AD. The Song rulers arose victorious from the ashes of the 5 Dynasties & Ten Kingdoms era, a 53 year long contest for power. Though the Song Dynasty was forced to migrate its capital south, during the later part of its tenure, it was economically healthy, and contained over 60 percent of China’s now mammoth population of over 100 million.

A new economic technology to the world, the banknote, was first introduced by the Song Dynasty. The first paper currency promoted trade both within China and amongst their growing maritime partnerships with Egypt, Japan, Korea, and India. Their naval strength also prompted the building of the world’s first standing navy.

The Liao Dynasty was born from the loss of Chinese influence in the northern provinces due to the internal strife of the Tang, and a regional power structure with closer ties to Khitan heritage lines. Though steppe warriors and peoples were leading the formation of this new dynasty, its territories still contained a number of ethnic Chinese, and subsequently two separate forms of governance and law were applied to its North and South Chancelleries.

There is currently little known about the development of new technologies with a lasting impact from the Liao dynasty. Their tendency to adhere to the mobile and rigorous lifestyles of nomads left little time for innovation. Meanwhile their political system, while intriguing for its ability to assuage both the nomadic Khitan, and the sedentary Chinese, was not be needed in the times to come and was lost.

For more information concerning these two Major Dynasties of the period, or the consortium of smaller dynasties that ushered in or out these two powers, please see the following articles.

Wikipedia Entry – Song Dynasty
Wikipdia Entry – Liao Dynasty
China History Forum

China's Dynastic History -- Turbulence, Part I

2008-06-14T15:17:00.004+08:00

Turbulent times for Dynasties and Rulers, Part I

Between the years 220 AD and 618 AD, the leadership over the Chinese peoples changed families over 5 times, and also included eras of heavy dissidence between clans. Aptly named the Three Kingdoms, 16 Dynasties, and Southern and Northern Dynastic periods, the struggle to rule over a single unified Chinese territory proved to be a near impossibility, and the region saw little encompassing peace.

Despite this, there were advances in technology, and a focus on the arts, culture, and religion during these times. Buddhism became very popular, and a wholly Chinese style of Buddhism was created, and Daoism began to flourish. Influencing this rise in Buddhist popularity was the continued migration of peoples into Chinese society and the “sinicization” of these immigrants and their cultures.

The Jin Dynasty survived for nearly 160 years despite heavy internal conflict and external threats. Brief periods of unity were achieved, but the ruling family was forced to migrate its power core more than once during its tenure.

The 16 Dynasties period ran concurrent with the end of the Jin Dynasty and stands as a testament to the struggles rampant in greater China. Many territories were engulfed with strife as warlords and wealthy families vied for power.

These storms settled themselves into the relatively peaceful Northern and Southern Dynasties, which were split along the river basin of the Yangtze. The establishment of the Southern Dynasty marked a new interest in the development of the Chinese culture in southeast Asia. Sources state that only one tenth of China’s then-population made up the populous of the South pointing towards the vast opportunity that lay before the southern emperors.

A number of sources have discussed the importance of this turbulent time period in the shaping of Chinese culture and geographic range of influence. Below are listed some of those sources: with others surely in existence.

China's Dynastic History -- Sui Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:17:00.003+08:00

Sui Dynasty

To bring together the dispersed power bases operating between the Han and Tang dynasties required a strict and ruthless ruler. Such a leader was found in Emperor Wen who was able to unify the northern and southern dynasties, and initiate a number of public works projects to build China’s nation. This marks the second time in China’s history in which a very short-lived and harsh dynasty was able to implement policy and projects that would have a long lasting effect on China’s future development.

The Great Canal of China required hundreds of thousands of workers to complete. Stretch nearly 2000 km, and allowing for elevation changes as great as 150 feet, the Grand Canal tied together the trade between Hangzhou and Beijing as well as crossing both the Yangtze and Yellow rivers. This Canal is still in use to this day, and is the longest man built waterway in the world. Continued construction of the Great Wall, and other large scale building projects strained the economy, but provided work for millions.

The demands of the social code and ambitious land projects took their toll on the populous of china, and major uprisings eventually led to its downfall. Though some historians have debated the importance of the Sui dynasty, we include it here as another example of the discipline society and its role in long term national influence.

For more information, please try:

Wikipedia Entry
China History Forum
SACU

China's Dynastic History -- Han Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:16:00.002+08:00

Han Dynasty

The Han Dynasty is still considered to be one of the greatest periods of China’s history. Agricultural abundance, internal social and civil peace, and a western expansion in militaristic and mercantile influence allowed the blooming of the newly unified China.

Split into two distinct periods, the Western Han and the Eastern Han Dynasties did share commonalities. The adoption of a Confucian philosophy for political and social governance leant itself to the creation of a dual-bureaucratic system, one central and one local. The central politicians made decisions concerning the appointment of regional governors, however, these local officials were given a high authority in the military, legal, and economic decisions of each sub-prefecture.

Notable Technologies of the Han Dynasty include paper, Steel works, hydro-bellowing systems, advances in agricultural machines, and a host of engineering marvels. The relative peace and harmony of the new unified China, in conjunction with the hugely expanded trade networks allowed for the sharing of goods and ideas across the great Asian continent as never before. A national postal network was formed during this time , only increasing the flow of information. The resulting development of the societies codes, tools, and culture were to leave a resounding mark on Chinese Civilization through even the present day.

For more information concerning the technological developments, social growth, and other advances attributed to the Han Dynasty please refer to the following or additional sites:

Wikipedia Entry
China History Forum

China's Dynastic History -- Zhou Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:15:00.002+08:00

Zhou Dynasty (Eastern and Western)

Emerging along the Yellow River, the Zhou Dynasty was the longest in China’s history, stretching from 1122BC to 256 BC. Though the military and political influence of this dynasty was limited to only the period of time known as the Western Zhou (1122-771BC), the succession of rulers continued for another 500 years.

Numerous technologies emerged during this dynasty. A new political technology, known as Fengjian, divided up agricultural land into a geometrical grid, and was governed by a fractal hierarchy of “lords.” This form of land and people management is often compared to the Feudal system of Europe, and was masterminded by the “Duke of Zhou,” the dynasty’s first leader. The agricultural system of the Zhou period was augmeneted by an extension of the hydraulic engineering projects built for irrigation purposes.

This dynasty also saw the peak of Bronze craftsmanship, with many artifacts surviving to the modern day and exemplifying the honed skill of such artisans. Additionally, iron was introduced to China, marking the beginning o f a new age in the use of materials and resources.
A culturally and politically significant “technology” that influenced the dynastic tradition until the early 20th century, The Mandate of Heaven, was also initiated during the Zhou Dynasty. This granted a divine intervention on behalf of the ruling family, and was supported or revoked by such events as rebellion or natural disasters.

More detailed information on the Zhou Dynasty and its well-documented and discussed history can be found at the following and additional sources:

Wikipedia Entry
Republican China
China History Forum

China's Dynastic History -- Shang Dynasty

2008-06-14T15:14:00.002+08:00

Shang Dynasty

This dynasty’s beginning is marked by the overthrow of the last Xia ruler a corrupted king according to some sources) by Tang, the leader of the Qin people. Contemporary historians are speculative concerning the range and extent of the Shang rulers sphere of influence in the region that has become China proper. However, written historical documentation in the form of the Oracle bones found at Anyang confirm a succession of leadership based on heritage.
Some historians and archeologists suggest that the Shang dynasty was one of numerous concurrent civil-societies of the time period. Overlap between the Shang, Xia, and other social orders point to a range in technological advances, and cultural development.

These societies each existed during the height of China’s Bronze Age, and numerous artifacts have survived as testaments to the advanced quality of their craftsmanship. Agricultural implements, religious, and artistic creations demonstrate a high level of skill, while few military technologies seem to have been bronze based.

For more information concerning the Shang Dynasty please refer to the following or other references:

Wikipedia Entry
China History Forum
China.Org

China's Dynastic History -- Qin Dynasty

2008-06-14T14:32:00.002+08:00

Qin Dynasty

Though this dynastic reign lasted only 12 years, policies and standards implemented were to last for the entirety of the Imperial Period. Under the ruler Qin, a centralized government was established to unify the tribes living in majority of geographic Han China. This government adhered to a Legalist philosophy, which is the stereotypical Disciplined society, in futurist terms—strict legal code governing all behavior and action. Though the political system was not fit to last, and gave way to the Han dynasty quickly, it was important in the standardization of numerous elements of the unified civil society.

The public works projects of this time period were of such a magnitude that necessities in communications, transportation, and resource management required strict coding. The creation of a unified legal code, and written language facilitated trans-regional trade and the coordination of workers and building materials. A unified system of measurement, coined currency, and other universal decrees, made project like the first Great Wall, the Terracotta Army, and a greatly expanded irrigation system possible.

Many of these standards continued in usage for the remainder of the Imperial age, thus providing an interesting glimpse at the ways in which short time periods can have huge and unpredictable effects on the long term development of organizations.

For more information on the Qin Dynasty please research further at these and other sites:

Baltimore City Public Schools
Wikipedia Entry
China History Forum

China's Dynastic History -- Xi'a Dynasty

2008-06-14T14:15:00.002+08:00

Xia Dynasty

The Xia Dynasty still draws much debate and discussion from historians interested in the period of Chinese history that gave birth to its civilization. The major importance of this period is the unification that occurred, and the peaceful transition of power and leadership (sometimes through heritage). This five hundred year long period witnessed a number of soft “technologies” that would help to solidify the land of ancient China.

The formation of agrarian societies, as in other societies, led to a number of “radical” transitions for the early Chinese people. Long-term settlements stabilized the social network, allowing for reliable trade. The extensive waterworks built by the founding leader Yu brought relief from annual flooding, and earned the trust and respect from other tribal leaders, thus allowing the stabilization of the network.

Though no written records exist from this period, relics of the period have been left behind for our perusal, most notably the urban remains at Erlitou and Yanshi. While carbon-dating puts these sites and other smaller excavations in the correct time period, debate rages as to the extent of influence that the Xi leaders exerted over the region.

For more information please view some of these articles for in depth research and debates concerning the period.

Wikipedia Entry
National Gallery of Art (USA)
China History Forum (may require a registration to view)

China's Dynastic History -- Creation Stories

2008-06-14T14:06:00.003+08:00

A brief Re-cap of China's 5000+ year history:

Creation Myth:
Because the deep social psychology of a people’s is partially formed by the myths and legends that circulate in the vernacular, we discuss below some of the Creation Stories that have evolved in Chinese Society. These Short descriptions are not provided as a final compendium, but another starting place for researchers to better understand China.

China’s various cultures have produced a number of ideas concerning the creation of the world, Earth life, and Chinese Soceity.
1)
P'an ku, Pángǔ – This creation myth is based on the entity Pángǔ, whose growth from the inside of an egg to full size created the heavens and the earth and everything inbetween. Variations exist on a) how Pángǔ was released from the egg, b) how Pángǔ is responsible for holding the earth and the heavens apart and deciding their distance, and c) What happened to Pángǔ after having established “the universe.”
For comparative purposes please refer to these or other web references, and feel free to add more references via the comments tool.
Pángǔ Story 1 - Wikipedia

Pángǔ Story 2 - LivingMyths

Pángǔ Story 3 - ThinkQuest

2)
Taoist Creationism is centered around the concept of a “Oneness” or essential source of the Universe and everything the includes. Through a continual division of “things” all emanating from the Tao, the Universe is created through mythological creatures, or via a rearrangement of “the elements.” Many of these creation stories are a part of the Confucius philosophy.

Chinese Creationism – Wikipedia

This story includes the formation of the supra-being, the Three Pure Ones, the 5 Supremes, and the creation of mankind. However, the wikipedia article is heavily marked for lack of proper referencing (though referencing does seem to be included in the article).

Chinese Creationism – Trivia Library

This version of the Taoist creation story discusses the creation of the universe and all life there in, without the mention of any mythological creatures or beings. This version depicts the universe as being a division of physical elements, and “material-force.”

China’s Dynastic History – Brief Introduction

2008-06-14T13:51:00.008+08:00

China’s Dynastic History – Brief Introduction

Chinese civilization has a history that spans nearly 5000 years, and much of this history has been recorded in terms of the different ruling dynasties. Reference sources have divided up Chinese history into various numbers of dynastic periods. The exact number of dynasties is still debated by historians, but this blog will briefly discuss these dynastic periods in 12 distinct groupings.

Each of these sections will briefly outline some of the highlighted cultural and technological developments of the dynasty. It will also provide a short amount of inter dynastic trend theory. This kind of historical trend analysis is generally regarded as “soft futures,” but it may provide a reference in understanding the futures process and the goal of futures work in the present.
Below are the 12 major dynastic periods that will be discussed throughout the month of June on the One World, One Dream. Whose? blog.

Below are listed some of the major periods of China’s Dynastic History.
1) Xia Dynasty (2100-1600 BC)
2) Qin Dynasty (1600-1612BC)
3) Shang Dynasty (1612-1046 BC)
4) Zhou (Eastern and Western) (1122-256 BC)
5) Han Dynasty(221BC-206 AD)
6) Turbulent Period (featuring Jin, Sui, and southern/northern Dynasties)(207-581 AD)
7) Sui Dynasty (581-618AD)
8) Tang (618-907 AD)
9) Second Turbulent Period (including concurrent Liao, Song, Jin and W. Xia dynasties) ( 907-1271AD)
10) Yuan (1271-1368AD)
11) Ming (1368-1644AD)
12) Qing (1644-1911AD)

Archaeological finds across China continue to fuel debate and speculation concerning the origins of Chinese Civilization, and provide us with windows into the fascinating past of China.